National Heart Forum

London, United Kingdom

National Heart Forum

London, United Kingdom

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Levy D.T.,Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation | Mabry P.L.,U.S. National Institutes of Health | Gortmaker S.,Harvard University | Huang T.T.-K.,University of Nebraska Medical Center | And 3 more authors.
Obesity Reviews | Year: 2011

Simulation models (SMs) combine information from a variety of sources to provide a useful tool for examining how the effects of obesity unfold over time and impact population health. SMs can aid in the understanding of the complex interaction of the drivers of diet and activity and their relation to health outcomes. As emphasized in a recently released report of the Institute or Medicine, SMs can be especially useful for considering the potential impact of an array of policies that will be required to tackle the obesity problem. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of existing SMs for obesity. First, a background section introduces the different types of models, explains how models are constructed, shows the utility of SMs and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. Using these typologies, we then briefly review extant obesity SMs. We categorize these models according to their focus: health and economic outcomes, trends in obesity as a function of past trends, physiologically based behavioural models, environmental contributors to obesity and policy interventions. Finally, we suggest directions for future research. © 2010 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2010 International Association for the Study of Obesity.


Beaglehole R.,University of Auckland | Bonita R.,University of Auckland | Alleyne G.,Pan American Health Organization | Horton R.,The Lancet | And 9 more authors.
The Lancet | Year: 2011

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), principally heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases, are a global crisis and require a global response. Despite the threat to human development, and the availability of affordable, cost-effective, and feasible interventions, most countries, development agencies, and foundations neglect the crisis. The UN High-Level Meeting (UN HLM) on NCDs in September, 2011, is an opportunity to stimulate a coordinated global response to NCDs that is commensurate with their health and economic burdens. To achieve the promise of the UN HLM, several questions must be addressed. In this report, we present the realities of the situation by answering four questions: is there really a global crisis of NCDs; how is NCD a development issue; are affordable and cost-effective interventions available; and do we really need high-level leadership and accountability? Action against NCDs will support other global health and development priorities. A successful outcome of the UN HLM depends on the heads of states and governments attending the meeting, and endorsing and implementing the commitments to action. Long-term success requires inspired and committed national and international leadership. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.


Moodie R.,University of Melbourne | Stuckler D.,University of Cambridge | Monteiro C.,University of Sao Paulo | Sheron N.,University of Southampton | And 4 more authors.
The Lancet | Year: 2013

The 2011 UN high-level meeting on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) called for multisectoral action including with the private sector and industry. However, through the sale and promotion of tobacco, alcohol, and ultra-processed food and drink (unhealthy commodities), transnational corporations are major drivers of global epidemics of NCDs. What role then should these industries have in NCD prevention and control? We emphasise the rise in sales of these unhealthy commodities in low-income and middle-income countries, and consider the common strategies that the transnational corporations use to undermine NCD prevention and control. We assess the effectiveness of selfregulation, public-private partnerships, and public regulation models of interaction with these industries and conclude that unhealthy commodity industries should have no role in the formation of national or international NCD policy. Despite the common reliance on industry self-regulation and public-private partnerships, there is no evidence of their effectiveness or safety. Public regulation and market intervention are the only evidence-based mechanisms to prevent harm caused by the unhealthy commodity industries.


Gortmaker S.L.,Human Development and Health | Swinburn B.A.,Deakin University | Levy D.,Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation | Carter R.,Deakin University | And 5 more authors.
The Lancet | Year: 2011

The global obesity epidemic has been escalating for four decades, yet sustained prevention efforts have barely begun. An emerging science that uses quantitative models has provided key insights into the dynamics of this epidemic, and enabled researchers to combine evidence and to calculate the effect of behaviours, interventions, and policies at several levels - from individual to population. Forecasts suggest that high rates of obesity will affect future population health and economics. Energy gap models have quantified the association of changes in energy intake and expenditure with weight change, and have documented the effect of higher intake on obesity prevalence. Empirical evidence that shows interventions are effective is limited but expanding. We identify several cost-effective policies that governments should prioritise for implementation. Systems science provides a framework for organising the complexity of forces driving the obesity epidemic and has important implications for policy makers. Many parties (such as governments, international organisations, the private sector, and civil society) need to contribute complementary actions in a coordinated approach. Priority actions include policies to improve the food and built environments, cross-cutting actions (such as leadership, healthy public policies, and monitoring), and much greater funding for prevention programmes. Increased investment in population obesity monitoring would improve the accuracy of forecasts and evaluations. The integration of actions within existing systems into both health and non-health sectors (trade, agriculture, transport, urban planning, and development) can greatly increase the influence and sustainability of policies. We call for a sustained worldwide effort to monitor, prevent, and control obesity. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.


Wang Y.C.,Columbia University | McPherson K.,University of Oxford | Marsh T.,National Heart Forum | Gortmaker S.L.,Boston University | Brown M.,National Heart Forum
The Lancet | Year: 2011

Rising prevalence of obesity is a worldwide health concern because excess weight gain within populations forecasts an increased burden from several diseases, most notably cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and cancers. In this report, we used a simulation model to project the probable health and economic consequences in the next two decades from a continued rise in obesity in two ageing populations - the USA and the UK. These trends project 65 million more obese adults in the USA and 11 million more obese adults in the UK by 2030, consequently accruing an additional 6-8·5 million cases of diabetes, 5·7-7·3 million cases of heart disease and stroke, 492 000-669 000 additional cases of cancer, and 26-55 million quality-adjusted life years forgone for USA and UK combined. The combined medical costs associated with treatment of these preventable diseases are estimated to increase by $48-66 billion/year in the USA and by £1·9-2 billion/year in the UK by 2030. Hence, effective policies to promote healthier weight also have economic benefits. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.


Webber L.,National Heart Forum | Kilpi F.,National Heart Forum | Marsh T.,National Heart Forum | Rtveladze K.,National Heart Forum | And 2 more authors.
PLoS ONE | Year: 2012

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular disease and stroke are a major public health concern across Latin America. A key modifiable risk factor for NCDs is overweight and obesity highlighting the need for policy to reduce prevalence rates and ameliorate rising levels of NCDs. A cross-sectional regression analysis was used to project BMI and related disease trends to 2050. We tested the extent to which interventions that decrease body mass index (BMI) have an effect upon the number of incidence cases avoided for each disease. Without intervention obesity trends will continue to rise across much of Latin America. Effective interventions are necessary if rates of obesity and related diseases are to be reduced. © 2012 Webber et al.


Webber L.,National Heart Forum | Kilpi F.,National Heart Forum | Marsh T.,National Heart Forum | Rtveladze K.,National Heart Forum | And 2 more authors.
Obesity Reviews | Year: 2012

Obesity has increased at an alarming rate across the world and, in turn, rates of non-communicable diseases have escalated. In Eastern Europe, this epidemic has probably occurred at a later stage than the West due to the economic transition following the demise of communism. Knowing how these trends will change is important. We used a micro-simulation model to project obesity trends and related incidence of coronary heart disease and stroke, cancer and type 2 diabetes 20 and 40 years into the future. Where nationally representative data were available, obesity levels were shown to increase with most prominent increases seen amongst men in Latvia and Estonia, and amongst women in Croatia and Latvia. The exception was Lithuania where a decrease in overweight and obesity was observed in both men and women. We showed that interventions effective in reducing obesity would have a significant impact upon the number of new cases of each disease. It is necessary to improve surveillance of obesity and disease incidence as well as implement policies that are effective in reducing body fat. © 2012 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2012 International Association for the Study of Obesity.


Ford J.,National Heart Forum | Korjonen H.,National Heart Forum
Health Information and Libraries Journal | Year: 2012

Objective: To review published literature covering the information needs of public health practitioners and papers highlighting gaps and potential solutions in order to summarise what is already known about this population and models tested to support them. Methods: The search strategy included bibliographic databases LISTA, LISA, PubMed and Web of Knowledge. The results of this literature review were used to create two tables displaying published literature. Findings: The literature highlighted that some research has taken place into different public health subgroups with consistent findings. Gaps in information provision have also been identified by looking at the information services provided. Conclusion: There is a need for further research into information needs in subgroups of public health practitioners as this group is diverse, has different needs and needs varying information. Models of informatics that can support public health must be developed and published so that the public health information community can share experiences and solutions and begin to build an evidence-base to produce superior information systems for the goal of a healthier society. © 2012 The authors. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2012 Health Libraries Group.


In 2011 the National Heart Forum completed a commission from the UK Department of Health to conduct a mapping and consultation exercise on the marketing and promotion of food and drinks to children. One of the outputs was an analysis of the regulatory environment including statutory and self-regulatory rules and voluntary codes of conduct. The key findings and observations from this analysis are presented in this short report. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.


Hollingworth W.,University of Bristol | Hawkins J.,University of Bristol | Lawlor D.A.,University of Bristol | Brown M.,National Heart Forum | And 2 more authors.
International Journal of Obesity | Year: 2012

Objective:To estimate lifetime cost effectiveness of lifestyle interventions to treat overweight and obese children, from the UK National Health Service perspective.Design:An adaptation of the National Heart Forum economic model to predict lifetime health service costs and outcomes of lifestyle interventions on obesity-related diseases.Setting:Hospital or community-based weight-management programmes.Population:Hypothetical cohorts of overweight or obese children based on body mass data from the National Child Measurement Programme.Interventions:Lifestyle interventions that have been compared with no or minimal intervention in randomized controlled trials (RCTs).Main Outcome Measures:Reduction in body mass index (BMI) standard deviation score (SDS), intervention resources/costs, lifetime treatment costs, obesity-related diseases and cost per life year gained.Results:Ten RCTs were identified by our search strategy. The median effect of interventions versus control from these 10 RCTs was a difference in BMI SDS of -0.13 at 12 months, but the range in effects among interventions was broad (0.04 to -0.60). Indicative costs per child of these interventions ranged from £108 to £662. For obese children aged 10-11 years, an intervention that resulted in a median reduction in BMI SDS at 12 months at a moderate cost of £400 increased life expectancy by 0.19 years and intervention costs were offset by subsequent undiscounted savings in treatment costs (net saving of £110 per child), though this saving did not emerge until the sixth or seventh decade of life. The discounted cost per life year gained was £13 589. Results were broadly similar for interventions aimed at children aged 4-5 years and which targeted both obese and overweight children. For more costly interventions, savings were less likely.Conclusion:Interventions to treat childhood obesity are potentially cost effective although cost savings and health benefits may not appear until the sixth or seventh decade of life. © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited All rights reserved.

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