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Qin Y.,China University of Mining and Technology | Yuan L.,National Engineering Research Center for Coalmine Gas Control | Yuan L.,China University of Mining and Technology | Cheng Y.,China University of Mining and Technology | And 2 more authors.
Shiyou Xuebao/Acta Petrolei Sinica | Year: 2013

Scenario factors influencing the development of the coalbed methane (CBM) industry in China were analyzed using a basic method of scenario analysis and a unidirectional growth trend of the dual elements (national demand and technical progress) for the China's CBM industry scale was suggested, which has three possible basic scenarios, namely the junior scale, benchmarker scale and leaping scale. By taking the China's CBM industry status into account and making reference to the U. S. CBM industry history, we further screened three key elements including the individual well production, total well number and brought-in well proportion, designed and simulated production scenarios of the nationwide CBM surface wells in the next 20 years. It was suggested that by the ends of the next four five-year plans, the CBM production scale of the nationwide surface wells will likely reach to 11.3 billion, 25.2 billion, 45.2 billion and 62.4 billion cubic meters, respectively. The realization of such scenarios relies on strengthening the support of national industrial policies, speeding up the progress of CBM well production technologies and increasing the capacity building speed on the CBM production basis. Source


Yuan L.,China University of Mining and Technology | Yuan L.,National Engineering Research Center for Coalmine Gas Control | Qin Y.,China University of Mining and Technology | Cheng Y.-P.,China University of Mining and Technology | And 2 more authors.
Meitan Xuebao/Journal of the China Coal Society | Year: 2013

Based on the scenario analysis, the middle-long term scale of the coal mine methane (CMM) drainage in China was discussed. It was suggested that the scenario keys constricting the CMM-draining scale of China include the raw coal production, the drainage rate and the drainage amount per ton of coal. Raising the drainage rate greatly is the only way to increase the CMM-draining scale but need a support from the drainage process and technology innovation. Based on the CMM-draining status quo of China, referring to the predication on the medium-long term of the coal production and consumption in China and the drainage rate of major U S coal mines, the average nationwide CMM-draining rate is set into five scenarios such as 30%, 40%, 50%, 60% and 70%, and national raw coal production into three scenarios including the low, medium and high scales. The medium-long term trends for fifteen joint scenarios of the national CMM-draining scales were simulated, the possibility of all scenarios were discussed, and the most likely scenarios, i. e., 16.2 billion cubic meters in 2015, 22.3 billion cubic meters in 2020, 24.4 billion cubic meters in 2025 and 19.8 billion cubic meters in 2030, were suggested. Among them, the drainage scale will be significantly rising before 2025, and then may tend to decline, with a "ceiling" of about 24.5 billion cubic meters. Source

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