Fontijn K.,Nanyang Technological University |
Fontijn K.,University of Oxford |
Fontijn K.,Ghent University |
Costa F.,Nanyang Technological University |
And 4 more authors.
Bulletin of Volcanology | Year: 2015
The 1963 AD eruption of Agung volcano was one of the most significant twentieth century eruptions in Indonesia, both in terms of its explosivity (volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of 4+) and its short-term climatic impact as a result of around 6.5 Mt SO2 emitted during the eruption. Because Agung has a significant potential to generate more sulphur-rich explosive eruptions in the future and in the wake of reported geophysical unrest between 2007 and 2011, we investigated the Late Holocene tephrostratigraphic record of this volcano using stratigraphic logging, and geochemical and geochronological analyses. We show that Agung has an average eruptive frequency of one VEI ≥2–3 eruptions per century. The Late Holocene eruptive record is dominated by basaltic andesitic eruptions generating tephra fall and pyroclastic density currents. About 25 % of eruptions are of similar or larger magnitude than the 1963 AD event, and this includes the previous eruption of 1843 AD (estimated VEI 5, contrary to previous estimations of VEI 2). The latter represents one of the chemically most evolved products (andesite) erupted at Agung. In the Late Holocene, periods of more intense explosive activity alternated with periods of background eruptive rates similar to those at other subduction zone volcanoes. All eruptive products at Agung show a texturally complex mineral assemblage, dominated by plagioclase, clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene and olivine, suggesting recurring open-system processes of magmatic differentiation. We propose that erupted magmas are the result of repeated intrusions of basaltic magmas into basaltic andesitic to andesitic reservoirs producing a hybrid of bulk basaltic andesitic composition with limited compositional variations. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Acocella V.,Third University of Rome |
Di Lorenzo R.,Third University of Rome |
Newhall C.,Mirisbiris Garden and Nature Center |
Scandone R.,Third University of Rome
Reviews of Geophysics | Year: 2015
Calderas are among the most active and dangerous volcanoes. Caldera unrest is defined by enhanced seismicity, gravity changes, surface deformation, and degassing. Although much caldera unrest does not lead to an eruption, every eruption is preceded by an unrest episode. Therefore, the proper description of unrest and the forecast of its possible outcome is a timely and challenging task. Here we review the best known unrest at calderas from 1988 to 2014, building on previous work and proposing an updated database. Where established, the root cause for unrest is always magmatic; none was purely hydrothermal or tectonic. An interpretive classification of unrest invokes two spectra - compositional (mafic to felsic) and the state of magma conduits feeding from the magma reservoir(s) to the surface (from fully plugged, through semiplugged, to open). Magma and gas in open conduits can rise and erupt freely; magma in semiplugged conduits erupts less frequently yet still allows some gas to escape; plugged conduits allow neither magma nor gas to escape. Unrest in mafic calderas is subtler, less pronounced, and repeated, especially with open systems, ensuring the continuous, aseismic, and moderate release of magma. Plugged felsic calderas erupt infrequently, anticipated by isolated, short and seismically active unrest. Semiplugged felsic calderas also erupt infrequently and are restless over decades or centuries, with uplift, seismicity, and degassing and, on the longer-term, resurgence, suggesting repeated stalled intrusions. Finally, the expected advances in better understanding caldera unrest are discussed. Key Points Review of caldera unrest between 1988 and 2014 Definition of main unrest types at calderas Original model to understand caldera unrest ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Whelley P.L.,Nanyang Technological University |
Whelley P.L.,NASA |
Newhall C.G.,Nanyang Technological University |
Newhall C.G.,Mirisbiris Garden and Nature Center |
Bradley K.E.,Nanyang Technological University
Bulletin of Volcanology | Year: 2015
There are ~750 active and potentially active volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Ash from eruptions of volcanic explosivity index 3 (VEI 3) and smaller pose mostly local hazards while eruptions of VEI ≥ 4 could disrupt trade, travel, and daily life in large parts of the region. We classify Southeast Asian volcanoes into five groups, using their morphology and, where known, their eruptive history and degassing style. Because the eruptive histories of most volcanoes in Southeast Asia are poorly constrained, we assume that volcanoes with similar morphologies have had similar eruption histories. Eruption histories of well-studied examples of each morphologic class serve as proxy histories for understudied volcanoes in the class. From known and proxy eruptive histories, we estimate that decadal probabilities of VEI 4–8 eruptions in Southeast Asia are nearly 1.0, ~0.6, ~0.15, ~0.012, and ~0.001, respectively. © 2015, The Author(s).