Raev I.,Bulgarian Academy of Science |
Alexandrov V.,Bulgarian Academy of Science |
Tinchev G.,Ministry of Agriculture and Food
Silva Balcanica | Year: 2015
The paper presents projections for change of air temperature and precipitation during the period 1951-2000, for 2050 and 2070 based on analysis of climate elements in the forests of Bulgaria in XX century, and application of global circulation models, WorldClim data and scenarios of IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Considerable increasing of air temperature is expected, together with decreasing of precipitation during the vegetation season. The vulnerability zones of forest ecosystems are delineated and particularly vulnerable of them will be the forests within the range from 0 to 800-900 m a. s. l., mainly in the Continental-Mediterranean climatic zone of the country. Problems are expected for more sensitive representatives of genus Quercus, for beech foothills ecosystems and particularly, for coniferous plantations out of their natural area of distribution. The need for implementation of already established special programs for adaptation of forest ecosystems of Bulgaria to future climate change, including the new systems of close-to-nature silviculture, increases.
Agency: Cordis | Branch: FP7 | Program: CP-FP | Phase: KBBE-2007-1-4-14 | Award Amount: 2.90M | Year: 2008
The proposed project will provide EU policy makers with information, data, quantitative instruments (economic models) and empirical expertise on cost of production for various types of agricultural products using the FADN data. More specifically, the purpose is to offer first a general cost of production model that could be used to estimate cost of production for key agricultural commodities produced in the European Union. This model will be implemented and validated for a wide range of EU-member countries. Further, additional applications estimating costs of production in EU agriculture, using FADN data and based on different analytical tools, will be developed in this research project. The expected outputs include: (a) a review of experiences of estimating cost of production in the EU and other major agricultural producing countries; (b) the development of a general cost of production model for EU agriculture, (c) the application of the former model to several agricultural products (crop products, milk and pigs) and to several EU member countries using FADN data, (d) an operational computer tool with user-friendly interface that can be used by relevant services of the EU Commission to estimate costs of production, (e) extensions and further applications aimed at studying farm performance and analysing environmental aspects, and (f) an evaluation of the impact of agricultural policy measures on farm income and return to capital and labour using FADN data.