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Pedercini M.,Millennium Institute
Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics) | Year: 2011

In the context of the implementation of the second-generation poverty reduction strategy (CSLP II) in Mali, we investigate the country's development potential, within existing resource constraints. We apply an integrated, resource-based approach to growth, implemented through a system-dynamics-based national development planning model. Scenario analysis indicates that the policy orientation of the CSLP II might foster growth in the long run, but, even in our most optimistic scenario, the government's stated growth and development goals are unlikely to be achieved. Our results highlight the importance of endogenous growth mechanisms for sustainable development, and the significance for economic performance of the major delays involved in the accumulation of the resources that are necessary for growth. We believe that our approach contributes to the most commonly used tools for medium-long term planning by providing a dynamic perspective on the key resources for growth and on the constraints to the country's development. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Bassi A.M.,Millennium Institute | Bassi A.M.,University of Bergen | Powers R.,SUNY ESF | Schoenberg W.,SUNY ESF
Energy Economics | Year: 2010

Many international organizations and research institutions have released recently unequivocal scenarios on energy's future prospects. The peak in global oil production is likely to happen in the next ten to fifteen years, if it hasn't already happened, and decisions to be made in the near future are likely to have large impacts on our quality of life in the coming decades. This study presents an integrated tool for national energy planning customized to North America. The authors analyzed the impact of world oil production on economic, social and environmental indicators. Two cases of global ultimate recoverable oil reserves are considered, a low and medium estimate within current research. Three sets of policy directions were chosen: Business As Usual (Market Based), Maximum Push for Renewables, and Low Carbon Emissions. Results of the simulations show that without restrictions on emissions coal becomes the dominant energy in the longer term. On the other hand, if US policymakers are able to effectively implement the necessary polices, such as a 20% RPS by 2020 and increased CAFE Standards, along with increased energy conservation and efficiency, the medium to longer-term economic impacts of a global peak in oil production can be mitigated, while a sustained reduction in emissions would require a larger effort. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In response to the ongoing climate policy debates, this study examines the cost impacts of carbon-pricing legislation on selected US energy-intensive manufacturing industries. Specifically, it evaluates output-based rebate measures and the border adjustment provision specified in the bill, and tests the effectiveness of cost containment features of the policy, such as the international offsets, under various market assumptions. Results of the examination confirm that in all policy cases or industries, the output-based rebates would effectively mitigate the manufacturers' carbon-pricing costs in the short-to-medium term. However as the rebates decline after 2020, especially in a case where low-carbon electricity generation or international offsets are not readily available or implemented, these industries would suffer greater declines in profitability. At the same time, the study's findings were mixed concerning the effectiveness of the border adjustment measure in reducing cost impacts after 2020. While border adjustments could reduce costs to US manufacturing sectors, at least temporarily, they could create problems for domestic downstream producers and exports, under cost pass-along conditions. However at best, the output-based rebates, international offset, and border adjustment and measures primarily buy time for manufacturers. The only long-term solution is for EITE industries to invest in energy-saving and next-generation low-carbon technologies. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

With the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 national leaders have started investigating options for reducing carbon emissions within national borders [1]. Despite confronting similar energy issues, every country that adopted the Kyoto Protocol has a unique energy strategy [1,2] -being characterized by a different context, social, economic or environmental that influences the way different nations deal with climate change and other energy-related issues. Finding that currently available energy models are often too detailed or narrowly focused to inform longer-term policy formulation and evaluation holistically [3], the present study proposes the utilization of an integrated cross-sectoral medium to longer-term research and modeling approach, incorporating various methodologies to minimize exogenous assumptions and endogenously represent the key drivers of the system analyzed. The framework proposed includes feedback, delays and non-linearity and focuses on structure, scenarios and policies, requires a profound customization of the model that goes beyond a new parameterization. The inclusion of social and environmental factors, in addition to economic ones, all unique to the geographical area analyzed, allows for a wider analysis of the implication of policies by identifying potential side effect or longer-term bottlenecks for socio-economic development and environmental preservation arising from cross-sectoral relations. © 2010 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

Pedercini M.,Millennium Institute
Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics) | Year: 2011

Policy-making is a complex process that involves a variety of actors. Several difficulties of various nature intervene in such process, making the identification and implementation of successful policies especially difficult. The usefulness of models in addressing technical obstacles related to the incorrect understanding of the issues and inferring of policy impacts have been broadly investigated [1,2]. Beyond facilitating technical aspects of the policy process, models can also facilitate communication among actors involved in such process. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

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