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Diodato N.,MetEROBS Met European Research Observatory | Bellocchi G.,A+ Network | Bellocchi G.,French National Institute for Agricultural Research | Bertolin C.,National Research Council Italy | Camuffo D.,National Research Council Italy
Theoretical and Applied Climatology

This work presents the reconstruction of a time series of annual winter air temperatures across Central and Southern Italy for the period 1500-2010 that largely overlaps the Little Ice Age (LIA) period (1300-1850). A detailed analysis was undertaken on winter mean temperature data using both observations (1871-2010) and proxy-based reconstructions (1500-1870). Based on this homogeneized reconstructed series, a time-dependency in low-frequency time-pattern of temperatures (70- and 130-year cycles) was suggested although the temporal oscillation was not merely periodic. The LIA was characterized by marked climatic variability over this part of Southern Europe, with particular emphasis during the so-called "Maunder Minimum" (MM), between 1645 and 1715. The interannual variability of low temperatures, in particular, makes the MM an outstanding climatic period. There is some consistency that patterns of warming conditions observed in recent times also occurred in the past. Quasiperiodic cycles appear as a consequence of stochastic resonance emerging in long time scales but the variability inherent to the series of winter temperatures, although likely generated by processes internal to the climate system, is difficult to forecast because the system is chaotic and affected by unpredictable noise. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Wien. Source

Camuffo D.,CNR Institute of atmospheric Sciences and Climate | Bertolin C.,CNR Institute of atmospheric Sciences and Climate | Diodato N.,MetEROBS Met European Research Observatory | Cocheo C.,Salvatore Maugeri Foundation IRCCS | And 6 more authors.
Climatic Change

The paper reports the results of the analysis of the 14 longest precipitation instrumental series, covering the last 300 years, that have been recovered in six subareas of the Western Mediterranean basin, i. e., Portugal, Northern and Southern Spain, Southern France, Northern and Southern Italy. This study extends back by one century our knowledge about the instrumental precipitation over the Western Mediterranean, and by two centuries in some specific subareas. All the time series show repeated swings. No specific trends have been found over the whole period, except in a few cases, but with modest time changes and sometimes having opposite tendency. The same can be said for the most recent decades although with some more marked departures from the average. The correlation between the various Mediterranean subareas is generally not significant, or almost uncorrelated. The Wavelet Spectral Analysis applied to the precipitation identifies only a minor 56-year cycle in autumn, i. e., the same return period that has been found in literature for the Sea Surface Temperature over North Atlantic. A comparison with a gridded dataset reconstruction based on mixed multiproxy and instrumental observations, shows that the grid reconstruction is in good agreement with the observed data for the period after 1900, less for the previous period. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Source

Diodato N.,MetEROBS Met European Research Observatory | Bellocchi G.,MetEROBS Met European Research Observatory | Bellocchi G.,French National Institute for Agricultural Research
Theoretical and Applied Climatology

This study proposes a forecast skill scheme for winter temperatures in the central Mediterranean Sub-regional Area. An original series of mean winter (December to February) temperatures spanning the period 1698-2010 is the basis for developing long-term climate prediction. A procedure was identified where a predictable structure was first provided by reducing noise via the Empirical Mode Decomposition method and then an Ensemble Climate Prediction (ECP) was applied. The predictability limit of the decomposed series was assessed by applying a collection of methods from linear and nonlinear time series analysis (Hurst coefficients, Lyapunov exponents and wavelet patterns). The analysis was based on a set of tools that are suitable to discover the manifestation of a possible trajectory of projected temperature change. The progress of the winter temperature forecast was inferred by an Exponential Smoothing with a Damped (ESD) multiplicative trend model. ECP-ESD hindcast experiments were tested and ensemble forecasts run until the year 2040. ECP-ESD yields an ensemble mean path that consists: (1) of a sharp decline in winter temperature in the current decade; (2) more widespread predictions for 2020-2030, with fluctuations near the present multi-decadal average; and (3) a sharp warming for the 2030-2040 decade. Our results are compatible with projections for European winters and major climatic indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Wien. Source

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