Narkhedkar S.D.S.G.,Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology |
Sikka D.R.,Mausam Vihar
Mausam | Year: 2011
An attempt has been made to compare dynamically the recent two drought years, viz., 2002 and 2009, from energetics aspects. For that different energy terms, their generation and conversion among different terms have been computed during 1 st May - 30 th September for the above two years over a limited region between 65° E & 95° E, 5° N & 35° N. These computations are based on daily NCEP 2.5° × 2.5° data during 1 st May - 30 th September of the above two years. The study shows that although for both the years we had drought, the mean monsoon circulation itself was much weaker in 2009 as compared to 2002, in daily, monthly as well as in the seasonal scale. The weaker mean monsoon circulation, in daily scale, has been demonstrated by comparatively longer spells during June-September 2009 with negative value of conversion of zonal available potential energy to zonal kinetic energy [C(A z, K z)]. Large negative values of the monthly total as well as seasonal total of [C(A z, K z)] indicate weaker mean monsoon circulation in monthly and in the seasonal scale. The study also shows that in both years, the Seasonal total (June-September) of conversion of zonal available potential energy to eddy available potential energy [C(A z, A E)] was positive, but in 2009 its order of magnitude was 10 -4 J/kg/cm 2/sec where as in 2002 it was 10 -6 J/kg/cm 2/sec, indicating that the influence of mid-latitude westerly was much more in 2009, which may have attributed towards weaker mean monsoon circulation in 2009.
Mohapatra M.,Mausam Bhavan |
Sikka D.R.,Mausam Vihar |
Bandyopadhyay B.K.,Mausam Bhavan |
Mausam | Year: 2013
A program has been evolved for improvement in prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal resulting in the Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP). FDP program is aimed to demonstrate the ability of various Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models to assess the genesis, intensification and movement of cyclones over the north Indian ocean with enhanced observations over the data sparse region and to incorporate modification into the models which could be specific to the Bay of Bengal based on the in-situ measurements. FDP Program is scheduled in three phases, viz., (i) Pre-pilot phase (15 Oct - 30 Nov 2008, 2009, (ii) Pilot phase (15 Oct - 30 Nov, 2010-2012) and (iii) Final phase (15 Oct - 30 Nov, 2013-14). India is planning to take up aircraft probing of cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 15 Oct - 30 Nov, 2013-14 with hired aircraft and dropsonde experiments. To accomplish the above objective, the initiative was carried out with priorities on (i) observational upgradation, (ii) modernization of cyclone analysis and prediction system, (iii) cyclone analysis and forecasting procedure, (iv) warning products generation, presentation & dissemination, (v) confidence building measures and capacity building. Various strategies were adopted for improvement of observation, analysis and prediction of cyclone. Several national institutions participated for joint observational, communicational & NWP activities during the pre-pilot and pilot phases of FDP campaign during 2008-11. The comparison of observational systems before and after FDP indicates a significant improvement in terms of Radar, Automatic Weather Station (AWS), high wind speed recorders over the region. It has resulted in reduction in monitoring and forecasting errors. The performance of NWP models have increased along with the introduction of NWP platforms like IMD GFS, WRF, HWRF and ensemble prediction system (EPS). Salient features of achievements along with the problems and prospects of this project are presented and discussed in this paper. With repeated attempts, the aircraft probing of cyclones could not be possible till now. It is a major challenge for the future campaign during 2013-14.
Sikka D.R.,Mausam Vihar
Mausam | Year: 2012
Nor'wester studies have a long history of climatological, synoptic and radar observations. These studies have been briefly mentioned and the field programs for the study of Nor'westers implemented in India Meteorological Department (IMD) from 1931-1941 have been touched upon. Indian atmospheric science community organized a multi-year STORM program during 2007-2010 to understand the formation of these severe local storms and also understand their dynamics through modeling. An attempt is made to use INSAT Infrared and Visible imageries to document the convective cells which developed over Eastern and North-East (NE) Indian states and adjoining countries of Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal for the year 2009. Also convective cells which organized themselves into Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) for the four years period 2007-2010 have been studied. It is found that by and large Eastern India (Jharkhand, Orissa, Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Bangladesh) is responsible for the initiation of convection. Development occurs as the cells propagate over the neighbouring areas of Bangladesh and NE India. Important observations with regard to initiation, maturity and dissipation etc. of the MCCs are provided. It is suggested that half hourly to hourly monitoring of convection can be accomplished by using INSAT imagery, along with multiple overlapping radar coverages, which could help in nowcasting of convective cells. Synoptic and thermodynamic forcing can help as broad guidance. The only effective way for effective warning is nowcasting using satellite and multiple radar coverage. © 2012 Government of India.
Narkhedkar S.G.,Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology |
Sikka D.R.,Mausam Vihar
Atmosfera | Year: 2012
An attempt has been made to make a composite energetics study for the three contrasting types south west monsoon season (SWMS) over India, viz. marginally normal SWMS (2000 and 2001 when seasonal total rainfall was very close to 90%), normal SWMS (2003, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 when seasonal total rainfall was very close to 100% of its long period average) and deficient SWMS (2002, 2004 and 2009, when seasonal total rainfall was less than 90% of its long period average). For that, decadal average for the decade 2000-2009 and anomaly, based on above decadal average, for individual year of this decade, of different energy terms, their generation and conversion among different terms have been computed daily during 1 May-30 September in the recent decade (2000-2009) over a limited region between 65°E to 95°E, 5°N to 35°N. These computations are based on daily NCEP 2.5°x 2.5°data during 1 May-30 September of the above ten years. The composite of these anomalies have then been constructed for the deficient monsoon years (2002, 2004 and 2009), marginally normal monsoon years (2000 and 2001) and for the normal monsoon years (2003, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008). In the decadal average, a steady fall in C(A Z, K Z) and C(A E, K E) till August and steady rise in C(A Z, A E) till July are noticed, indicating a suppressed mean monsoon circulation due to the influence of mid latitude baroclinic westerly systems. Analysis of the composite anomaly of different energetics parameter indicates that the deficient SWM, in the decade under study, are characterized by weaker mean monsoon circulation, as compared to normal or marginally normal SWM, in daily, monthly and seasonal scale, due to anomalous influence of mid latitude baroclinic westerly systems.
Dimri A.P.,Jawaharlal Nehru University |
Niyogi D.,Purdue University |
Barros A.P.,Duke University |
Ridley J.,Office Hadley Center |
And 3 more authors.
Reviews of Geophysics | Year: 2015
Cyclonic storms associated with the midlatitude Subtropical Westerly Jet (SWJ), referred to as Western Disturbances (WDs), play a critical role in the meteorology of the Indian subcontinent. WDs embedded in the southward propagating SWJ produce extreme precipitation over northern India and are further enhanced over the Himalayas due to orographic land-atmosphere interactions. During December, January, and February, WD snowfall is the dominant precipitation input to establish and sustain regional snowpack, replenishing regional water resources. Spring melt is the major source of runoff to northern Indian rivers and can be linked to important hydrologic processes from aquifer recharge to flashfloods. Understanding the dynamical structure, evolution-decay, and interaction of WDs with the Himalayas is therefore necessary to improve knowledge which has wide ranging socioeconomic implications beyond short-term disaster response including cold season agricultural activities, management of water resources, and development of vulnerability-adaptive measures. In addition, WD wintertime precipitation provides critical mass input to existing glaciers and modulates the albedo characteristics of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, affecting large-scale circulation and the onset of the succeeding Indian Summer Monsoon. Assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on the Indian subcontinent requires fundamental understanding of the dynamics of WDs. In particular, projected changes in the structure of the SWJ will influence evolution-decay processes of the WDs and impact Himalayan regional water availability. This review synthesizes past research on WDs with a perspective to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state of knowledge to assist both researchers and policymakers, and context for future research. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.