Market Economics Ltd
Market Economics Ltd
McDonald G.W.,Market Economics Ltd |
Smith N.J.,Market Economics Ltd |
Kim J.-H.,Market Economics Ltd |
Cronin S.J.,Massey University |
And 2 more authors.
Bulletin of Volcanology | Year: 2017
Volcanic risk assessment has historically concentrated on quantifying the frequency, magnitude, and potential diversity of physical processes of eruptions and their consequent impacts on life and property. A realistic socio-economic assessment of volcanic impact must however take into account dynamic properties of businesses and extend beyond only measuring direct infrastructure/property loss. The inoperability input-output model, heralded as one of the 10 most important accomplishments in risk analysis over the last 30 years (Kujawaski Syst Eng. 9:281–295, 2006), has become prominent over the last decade in the economic impact assessment of business disruptions. We develop a dynamic inoperability input-output model to assess the economic impacts of a hypothetical volcanic event occurring at each of 7270 unique spatial locations throughout the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. This field of at least 53 volcanoes underlies the country’s largest urban area, the Auckland region, which is home to 1.4 million people and responsible for 35.3% (NZ$201481.2 billion) of the nation’s GDP (Statistics New Zealand 2015). We apply volcanic event characteristics for a small-medium-scale volcanic eruption scenario and assess the economic impacts of an ‘average’ eruption in the Auckland region. Economic losses are quantified both with, and without, business mitigation and intervention responses in place. We combine this information with a recent spatial hazard probability map (Bebbington and Cronin Bull Volcanol. 73(1):55–72, 2011) to produce novel spatial economic activity ‘at risk’ maps. Our approach demonstrates how business inoperability losses sit alongside potential life and property damage assessment in enhancing our understanding of volcanic risk mitigation. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Van Delden H.,Research Institute for Knowledge Systems |
McDonald G.,Market Economics Ltd.
Modelling for Environment's Sake: Proceedings of the 5th Biennial Conference of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, iEMSs 2010 | Year: 2010
Although in the past decades several attempts have been made to integrate economic models with land use change (LUC) models, none of them have been fully satisfactory. In this paper we analyse four different integrated models for policy support that include economic and LUC models. We describe several functional forms used to integrate LUC and economic models, highlighting the various strengths and weaknesses of each form, and in turn, suggesting possible pathways for improved integration. Analysing the concepts and underlying assumptions of both types of models show their vast difference. When integrating these models, underlying assumptions and limitations of the existing individual models are passed on to the integrated model. A proper integration therefore requires a thorough understanding of the underlying theories of both types of models and a solution at this theoretical level. We argue that concepts of evolutionary economics and -spatially explicit- agent based modelling, where creation of ideas and learning are embodied into fully integrated LUC and economic models, provide some key mechanisms for bridging the described gap. These approaches are however very data demanding and have -at least at present- major limitations in performing a proper calibration and validation.
Huser B.,Waikato Regional Council |
McDonald G.,Market Economics Ltd |
Phyn D.,Waikato Regional Council |
Hurkens J.,Research Institute for Knowledge Systems |
And 3 more authors.
iEMSs 2012 - Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Proceedings of the 6th Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society | Year: 2012
Ecosystem services are rapidly becoming a useful framework for policy and decision-making at the international, national and local level. Integration of multiple ecosystem services allows to evaluate trade-offs between alternative scenarios. Carbon sequestration is a fundamental service provided by forests. The New Zealand Government has introduced an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to meet its international obligations in a cost-effective manner. This establishes a price on greenhouse gas emissions thus providing an incentive to reduce emissions or plant forests to absorb CO2. The Waikato Regional Council has developed a Regional Carbon Strategy to benefit from the ETS by planting trees on marginal farmland used mainly for sheep and beef farming. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to identify the most suitable land and an integrated spatial decision support system was then used to compare cost/benefits and to assess various ecosystem services (for example biodiversity, water quality, water runoff) from a carbon forestry scenario against a reference scenario, both run to 2050. The carbon forestry scenario assumed an approximate net additional 75,000 hectares planted and reported reduced nitrogen and phosphorus loads to waterways, less runoff and enhanced biodiversity, while sequestration provided an economically viable opportunity for sheep and beef farmers on marginal land.
Patterson M.G.,Massey University |
McDonald G.W.,Market Economics Ltd |
Smith N.J.,Market Economics Ltd
Regional Studies | Year: 2011
Patterson M. G., Mcdonald G.W. and Smith N. J. Ecosystem service appropriation in the Auckland Region economy: an input-output analysis, Regional Studies. This paper assesses the appropriation of ecosystem services by the Auckland Region economy in New Zealand. A novel application of environmental input-output analysis is used to trace biophysical interdependence within the regional economy. The methodology provides a step-by-step procedure for tracing the appropriation of various ecosystem services, using infinite regress chains displayed as appropriation chain diagrams. Critical dependencies on ecosystem services are revealed throughout the economy through case studies of two selected industries, namely air transport and business services. © 2011 Regional Studies Association.
Smith N.J.,Massey University |
Smith N.J.,Market Economics Ltd. |
Mcdonald G.W.,Market Economics Ltd. |
Murray C.F.,Market Economics Ltd.
Water and Environment Journal | Year: 2015
Worldwide, there has been an increasing trend for water supply managers to look towards the use of water demand management (WDM) initiatives as an alternative to other more traditional approaches for ensuring that water supply can meet demand. Despite increasing recognition of the wide range of benefits possible through these WDM initiatives, there are few published works that are readily accessible to decision makers laying out concepts and methods through which a valuation of WDM initiatives can be made. To address the issue, this paper describes a comprehensive framework to evaluate WDM and alternative initiatives. It describes the results of applying the framework ex-post to the assessment of WDM initiatives put in place by Tauranga City Council in New Zealand. This case study is one of the leading examples of the implementation of WDM in New Zealand, and provides a strong value case for investigating other possible applications of WDM. © 2014 CIWEM.