Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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Swingedouw D.,LSCE IPSL | Rodehacke C.B.,Max Planck Institute For Meteorologie | Behrens E.,Leibniz Institute of Marine Science | Menary M.,UK Met Office | And 5 more authors.
Climate Dynamics | Year: 2013

The recent increase in the rate of the Greenland ice sheet melting has raised with urgency the question of the impact of such a melting on the climate. As former model projections, based on a coarse representation of the melting, show very different sensitivity to this melting, it seems necessary to consider a multi-model ensemble to tackle this question. Here we use five coupled climate models and one ocean-only model to evaluate the impact of 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3/s) of freshwater equally distributed around the coast of Greenland during the historical era 1965-2004. The ocean-only model helps to discriminate between oceanic and coupled responses. In this idealized framework, we find similar fingerprints in the fourth decade of hosing among the models, with a general weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Initially, the additional freshwater spreads along the main currents of the subpolar gyre. Part of the anomaly crosses the Atlantic eastward and enters into the Canary Current constituting a freshwater leakage tapping the subpolar gyre system. As a consequence, we show that the AMOC weakening is smaller if the leakage is larger. We argue that the magnitude of the freshwater leakage is related to the asymmetry between the subpolar-subtropical gyres in the control simulations, which may ultimately be a primary cause for the diversity of AMOC responses to the hosing in the multi-model ensemble. Another important fingerprint concerns a warming in the Nordic Seas in response to the re-emergence of Atlantic subsurface waters capped by the freshwater in the subpolar gyre. This subsurface heat anomaly reaches the Arctic where it emerges and induces a positive upper ocean salinity anomaly by introducing more Atlantic waters. We found similar climatic impacts in all the coupled ocean-atmosphere models with an atmospheric cooling of the North Atlantic except in the region around the Nordic Seas and a slight warming south of the equator in the Atlantic. This meridional gradient of temperature is associated with a southward shift of the tropical rains. The free surface models also show similar sea-level fingerprints notably with a comma-shape of high sea-level rise following the Canary Current. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

Kallache M.,Climpact | Maksimovich E.,LOCEAN IPSL | Michelangeli P.-A.,Climpact | Naveau P.,LSCE IPSL
Journal of Climate | Year: 2010

The performance of general circulation models (GCMs) varies across regions and periods. When projecting into the future, it is therefore not obvious whether to reject or to prefer a certain GCM. Combining the outputs of several GCMs may enhance results. This paper presents a method to combine multimodel GCM projections by means of a Bayesian model combination (BMC). Here the influence of each GCM is weighted according to its performance in a training period, with regard to observations, as outcome BMC predictive distributions for yet unobserved observations are obtained. Technically, GCM outputs and observations are assumed to vary randomly around common means, which are interpreted as the actual target values under consideration. Posterior parameter distributions of the authors' Bayesian hierarchical model are obtained by a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Advantageously, all parameters-such as bias and precision of the GCM models-are estimated together. Potential time dependence is accounted for by integrating a Kalman filter. The significance of trend slopes of the common means is evaluated by analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters. The method is applied to assess the evolution of ice accumulation over the oceanic Arctic region in cold seasons. The observed ice index is created out of NCEP reanalysis data. Outputs of seven GCMs are combined by using the training period 1962-99 and prediction periods 2046-65 and 2082-99 with Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1. A continuing decrease of ice accumulation is visible for the A2 scenario, whereas the index stabilizes for the B1 scenario in the second prediction period. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

Le Hegarat-Mascle S.,University Paris - Sud | Ottle C.,LSCE IPSL
International Journal of Remote Sensing | Year: 2013

Surface features such as furrows are here detected using high spatial resolution images such as those provided by IKONOS (pixel size 1 m × 1 m in panchromatic mode) and WorldView-1 instruments (pixel size 0.5 m × 0.5 m), through a new detection methodology based on image analysis. This methodology includes four different steps. First, segmentation of the whole image is performed in order to label each agricultural field individually. Then, for each field, mathematical morphological processes are applied (erosion followed by functional geodesic reconstruction) in order to enhance the image contrast. Then, an automatic thresholding process is applied to construct a binary image of the furrows or other features in the field. In order to reduce the noise due to the overlap between the classes of furrow and background, the a priori information that furrows are straight lines exhibiting regular patterns is introduced. The Hough transform is applied to detect straight lines (represented in polar coordinates) and furrow directions as accumulations on the angle axis in the Hough space. The proposed method was applied on a WorldView-1 image acquired over the Lokna catchment within the Plava watershed in Russia (around 180 km2) and validated against ground truth observations. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Lehodey P.,MEMMS Marine Ecosystems Modelling and Monitoring by Satellites | Senina I.,MEMMS Marine Ecosystems Modelling and Monitoring by Satellites | Sibert J.,University of Hawaii at Manoa | Bopp L.,LSCE IPSL | And 3 more authors.
Progress in Oceanography | Year: 2010

An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2°×2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 850ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for bigeye tuna spawning. The adult feeding habitat also improved in the ETP due to the increase of dissolved oxygen concentration in the sub-surface allowing adults to access deeper forage. Conversely, in the Western Central Pacific the temperature becomes too warm for bigeye tuna spawning. The decrease in spawning is compensated by an increase of larvae biomass in subtropical regions. However, natural mortality of older stages increased due to lower habitat values (too warm surface temperatures, decreasing oxygen concentration in the sub-surface and less food). This increased mortality and the displacement of surviving fish to the eastern region led to stable then declining adult biomass at the end of the century. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Berg A.,LOCEAN IPSL | De Noblet-Ducoudre N.,LSCE IPSL | Sultan B.,LOCEAN IPSL | Lengaigne M.,LOCEAN IPSL | Guimberteau M.,LOCEAN IPSL
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology | Year: 2013

Climate change impacts on agriculture could arguably be most critical for developing countries in tropical regions: their populations rely importantly on agriculture and climate-dependant resources, poverty limits their capacity to anticipate and adapt to climate change, and population increase already poses a serious challenge to food security in those regions. Current projections of climate change impacts on tropical crop yields, even though on average negative, remain largely uncertain: there is need for more consistent, large-scale, quantitative assessments.In this study we use a newly developed agro-DGVM (Dynamical Global Vegetation Model including an explicit representation of croplands) driven by projections from several climate models and two SRES scenarios to evaluate climate change impacts on potential C4 crop productivity over Africa and India from 1960 to 2100. We specifically separate the effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. We perform transient simulations directly forced by climate model outputs: to preserve consistency in the analysis despite regional biases in climate models, we analyze yield change on a bioclimatic basis (using the Köppen classification) rather than on a geographical basis. We find that the potential productivity of one of the most important staple crops in those regions, millet, will overall decrease, on average over all models and scenarios, by -6% (individual model projections ranging from -29% to +11%). The bioclimatic analysis allows us to highlight the main climate drivers of these changes. The main impact is a moderate but robust temperature-driven yield decrease over Equatorial and Temperate Köppen zones; larger but much more inconsistent yield changes occur in Arid Köppen zones, reflecting the uncertainty in precipitation projections from climate models. The uncertainty in aggregated impacts reflects the uncertainty over these areas, underlining the need to narrow the uncertainty in precipitation projections over dry areas if more reliable agricultural impact assessments over tropical regions are to be provided. Our results are also consistent with the limited magnitude of the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 levels on C4 crop yields described in the literature. While such climatic impacts further increase the challenge of achieving future food security in developing countries in the Tropics, most of these impacts can arguably be mitigated through adaptation measures and improved agricultural practices. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Servonnat J.,LOCEAN IPSL | Mignot J.,LOCEAN IPSL | Mignot J.,University of Bern | Guilyardi E.,LOCEAN IPSL | And 4 more authors.
Climate Dynamics | Year: 2014

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the three-dimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years “target” simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-to-high latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied everywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained large-scale observations of this field. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Swingedouw D.,LSCE IPSL | Mignot J.,LOCEAN IPSL | Labetoulle S.,LOCEAN IPSL | Guilyardi E.,LOCEAN IPSL | And 2 more authors.
Climate Dynamics | Year: 2013

The mechanisms involved in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) decadal variability and predictability over the last 50 years are analysed in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model using historical and initialised simulations. The initialisation procedure only uses nudging towards sea surface temperature anomalies with a physically based restoring coefficient. When compared to two independent AMOC reconstructions, both the historical and nudged ensemble simulations exhibit skill at reproducing AMOC variations from 1977 onwards, and in particular two maxima occurring respectively around 1978 and 1997. We argue that one source of skill is related to the large Mount Agung volcanic eruption starting in 1963, which reset an internal 20-year variability cycle in the North Atlantic in the model. This cycle involves the East Greenland Current intensity, and advection of active tracers along the subpolar gyre, which leads to an AMOC maximum around 15 years after the Mount Agung eruption. The 1997 maximum occurs approximately 20 years after the former one. The nudged simulations better reproduce this second maximum than the historical simulations. This is due to the initialisation of a cooling of the convection sites in the 1980s under the effect of a persistent North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) positive phase, a feature not captured in the historical simulations. Hence we argue that the 20-year cycle excited by the 1963 Mount Agung eruption together with the NAO forcing both contributed to the 1990s AMOC maximum. These results support the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic in the observations. Hindcasts following the CMIP5 protocol are launched from a nudged simulation every 5 years for the 1960-2005 period. They exhibit significant correlation skill score as compared to an independent reconstruction of the AMOC from 4-year lead-time average. This encouraging result is accompanied by increased correlation skills in reproducing the observed 2-m air temperature in the bordering regions of the North Atlantic as compared to non-initialized simulations. To a lesser extent, predicted precipitation tends to correlate with the nudged simulation in the tropical Atlantic. We argue that this skill is due to the initialisation and predictability of the AMOC in the present prediction system. The mechanisms evidenced here support the idea of volcanic eruptions as a pacemaker for internal variability of the AMOC. Together with the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic they propose a novel and complementary explanation for the AMOC variations over the last 50 years. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

Seferian R.,LSCE IPSL | Seferian R.,Meteo - France | Iudicone D.,Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn | Bopp L.,LSCE IPSL | And 2 more authors.
Journal of Climate | Year: 2012

Impacts of climate change on air-sea CO 2 exchange are strongly region dependent, particularly in the Southern Ocean. Yet, in the Southern Ocean the role of water masses in the uptake of anthropogenic carbon is still debated. Here, a methodology is applied that tracks the carbon flux of each Southern Ocean water mass in response to climate change. A global marine biogeochemical model was coupled to a climate model, making 140-yr Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5)-type simulations, where atmospheric CO 2 increased by 1% yr -1 to 4 times the preindustrial concentration (4 × CO 2). Impacts of atmospheric CO 2 (carbon-induced sensitivity) and climate change (climate-induced sensitivity) on the water mass carbon fluxes have been isolated performing two sensitivity simulations. In the first simulation, the atmospheric CO 2 influences solely the marine carbon cycle, while in the second simulation, it influences both the marine carbon cycle and earth's climate. At 4 × CO 2, the cumulative carbon uptake by the Southern Ocean reaches 278 PgC, 53% of which is taken up by modal and intermediate water masses. The carbon-induced and climate-induced sensitivities vary significantly between the water masses. The carbon-induced sensitivities enhance the carbon uptake of the water masses, particularly for the denser classes. But, enhancement strongly depends on the water mass structure. The climate-induced sensitivities either strengthen or weaken the carbon uptake and are influenced by local processes through changes in CO 2 solubility and stratification, and by large-scale changes in outcrop surface (OS) areas. Changes in OS areas account for 45% of the climateinduced reduction in the Southern Ocean carbon uptake and are a key factor in understanding the future carbon uptake of the Southern Ocean. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.

Lauerwald R.,Free University of Colombia | Lauerwald R.,Institute Pierre Simon Laplace | Lauerwald R.,University of Hamburg | Laruelle G.G.,Free University of Colombia | And 4 more authors.
Global Biogeochemical Cycles | Year: 2015

CO2 evasion from rivers (FCO2) is an important component of the global carbon budget. Here we present the first global maps of CO2 partial pressures (pCO2) in rivers of stream orders 3 and higher and the resulting FCO2 at 0.5° resolution constructed with a statistical model. A geographic information system based approach is used to derive a pCO2 prediction function trained on data from 1182 sampling locations. While data from Asia and Africa are scarce and the training data set is dominated by sampling locations from the Americas, Europe, and Australia, the sampling locations cover the full spectrum from high to low latitudes. The predictors of pCO2 are net primary production, population density, and slope gradient within the river catchment as well as mean air temperature at the sampling location (r2 = 0.47). The predicted pCO2 map was then combined with spatially explicit estimates of stream surface area Ariver and gas exchange velocity k calculated from published empirical equations and data sets to derive the FCO2 map. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we assessed the uncertainties of our estimates. At the global scale, we estimate an average river pCO2 of 2400 (2019-2826) μatm and a FCO2 of 650 (483-846) Tg C yr-1 (5th and 95th percentiles of confidence interval). Our global CO2 evasion is substantially lower than the recent estimate of 1800 Tg C yr-1 although the training set of pCO2 is very similar in both studies, mainly due to lower tropical pCO2 estimates in the present study. Our maps reveal strong latitudinal gradients in pCO2, Ariver, and FCO2. The zone between 10°N and 10°S contributes about half of the global CO2 evasion. Collection of pCO2 data in this zone, in particular, for African and Southeast Asian rivers is a high priority to reduce uncertainty on FCO2. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Kaminski T.,FastOpt | Rayner P.J.,University of Melbourne | Vobeck M.,FastOpt | Scholze M.,University of Bristol | Koffi E.,LSCE IPSL
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Year: 2012

This paper investigates the relationship between the heterogeneity of the terrestrial carbon cycle and the optimal design of observing networks to constrain it. We combine the methods of quantitative network design and carbon-cycle data assimilation to a hierarchy of increasingly heterogeneous descriptions of the European terrestrial biosphere as indicated by increasing diversity of plant functional types. We employ three types of observations, flask measurements of CO2 concentrations, continuous measurements of CO 2 and pointwise measurements of CO 2 flux. We show that flux measurements are extremely efficient for relatively homogeneous situations but not robust against increasing or unknown complexity. Here a hybrid approach is necessary, and we recommend its use in the development of integrated carbon observing systems. © 2012 Author(s).

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