Lefevre N.,IRD LOCEAN |
Caniaux G.,Meteo - France |
Janicot S.,IRD LOCEAN |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans | Year: 2013
The fugacity of CO2 (fCO2) has been measured underway during the voyages of a merchant ship sailing from France to Brazil since 2008. High fCO2 values are observed in 2010, between approximately 8°S and 8°N, and are particularly pronounced in boreal spring. These high values are explained by the anomalous situation occurring in the tropical Atlantic in 2010 after the 2009 El Niño in the Pacific. The weakening of the trade winds during the El Niño event contributes to an increase of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone. The anomalous position of the intertropical convergence zone is accompanied by reduced precipitation in boreal spring and hence a higher than usual sea surface salinity. The year 2010 is also characterized by a strong positive Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index and a negative North Atlantic oscillation index that contribute to the tropical Atlantic warming. Positive anomalies of both surface temperature and salinity cause an increase of surface CO2, leading to a stronger outgassing of CO2 in 2010 compared with 2009 and 2011. The main factor responsible for the CO2 anomalies is the Pacific El Niño teleconnection. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index also contributes in the northern hemisphere, and the role of the North Atlantic oscillation is negligible. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Kim S.T.,CSIRO |
Cai W.,CSIRO |
Cai W.,Ocean University of China |
Jin F.-F.,University of Hawaii at Manoa |
And 5 more authors.
Nature Climate Change | Year: 2014
The destructive environmental and socio-economic impacts of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) demand an improved understanding of how ENSO will change under future greenhouse warming. Robust projected changes in certain aspects of ENSO have been recently established. However, there is as yet no consensus on the change in the magnitude of the associated sea surface temperature (SST) variability, commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude, despite its strong effects on marine ecosystems and rainfall worldwide. Here we show that the response of ENSO SST amplitude is time-varying, with an increasing trend in ENSO amplitude before 2040, followed by a decreasing trend thereafter. We attribute the previous lack of consensus to an expectation that the trend in ENSO amplitude over the entire twenty-first century is unidirectional, and to unrealistic model dynamics of tropical Pacific SST variability. We examine these complex processes across 22 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The nine most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on the time-varying response and reveal that the non-unidirectional behaviour is linked to a longitudinal difference in the surface warming rate across the Indo-Pacific basin. Our results carry important implications for climate projections and climate adaptation pathways.© 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
P Sabin T.,Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology |
Krishnan R.,Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology |
Ghattas J.,Laboratoire Meteorologie Dynamique |
Denvil S.,Laboratoire Meteorologie Dynamique |
And 3 more authors.
Climate Dynamics | Year: 2013
This study examines the feasibility of using a variable resolution global general circulation model (GCM), with telescopic zooming and enhanced resolution (~35 km) over South Asia, to better understand regional aspects of the South Asian monsoon rainfall distribution and the interactions between monsoon circulation and precipitation. For this purpose, two sets of ten member realizations are produced with and without zooming using the LMDZ (Laboratoire Meteorologie Dynamique and Z stands for zoom) GCM. The simulations without zoom correspond to a uniform 1° × 1° grid with the same total number of grid points as in the zoom version. So the grid of the zoomed simulations is finer inside the region of interest but coarser outside. The use of these finer and coarser resolution ensemble members allows us to examine the impact of resolution on the overall quality of the simulated regional monsoon fields. It is found that the monsoon simulation with high-resolution zooming greatly improves the representation of the southwesterly monsoon flow and the heavy precipitation along the narrow orography of the Western Ghats, the northeastern mountain slopes and northern Bay of Bengal (BOB). A realistic Monsoon Trough (MT) is also noticed in the zoomed simulation, together with remarkable improvements in representing the associated precipitation and circulation features, as well as the large-scale organization of meso-scale convective systems over the MT region. Additionally, a more reasonable simulation of the monsoon synoptic disturbances (lows and disturbances) along the MT is noted in the high-resolution zoomed simulation. On the other hand, the no-zoom version has limitations in capturing the depressions and their movement, so that the MT zone is relatively dry in this case. Overall, the results from this work demonstrate the usefulness of the high-resolution variable resolution LMDZ model in realistically capturing the interactions among the monsoon large-scale dynamics, the synoptic systems and the meso-scale convective systems, which are essential elements of the South Asian monsoon system. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Berg A.,LOCEAN |
Sultan B.,LOCEAN |
De Noblet-Ducoudre N.,LSCE
Geophysical Research Letters | Year: 2010
A large-scale crop model is forced by a range of climate datasets over West Africa to test the sensitivity of simulated yields to errors in input rainfall. The model skill, defined as the correlation between observed and simulated yield anomalies over 1968-1990 at the country scale, is used for assessment. We show that there are two essential rainfall features for the model to skillfully simulate interannual yield variability at the country scale: cumulative annual variability and frequency. At such a scale, providing additional information on intraseasonal variability, such as the chronology of rain events, does not improve the model skill. We suggest that such information is relevant at smaller spatial scales but is not spatially consistent enough to impact large-scale yield variability. Copyright © 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.
Echevin V.,LOCEAN |
Goubanova K.,LEGOS |
Belmadani A.,LOCEAN |
Belmadani A.,University of Hawaii at Manoa |
Climate Dynamics | Year: 2012
The impact of climate warming on the seasonal variability of the Humboldt Current system ocean dynamics is investigated. The IPSL-CM4 large scale ocean circulation resulting from two contrasted climate scenarios, the so-called Preindustrial and quadrupling CO2, are downscaled using an eddy-resolving regional ocean circulation model. The intense surface heating by the atmosphere in the quadrupling CO2 scenario leads to a strong increase of the surface density stratification, a thinner coastal jet, an enhanced Peru-Chile undercurrent, and an intensification of nearshore turbulence. Upwelling rates respond quasi-linearly to the change in wind stress associated with anthropogenic forcing, and show a moderate decrease in summer off Peru and a strong increase off Chile. Results from sensitivity experiments show that a 50% wind stress increase does not compensate for the surface warming resulting from heat flux forcing and that the associated mesoscale turbulence increase is a robust feature. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.