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Le Touquet – Paris-Plage, France

Paeth H.,University of Wurzburg | Hall N.M.,Toulouse 1 University Capitole | Gaertner M.A.,University of Castilla - La Mancha | Alonso M.D.,University of Castilla - La Mancha | And 13 more authors.
Atmospheric Science Letters

We review the recent progress in dynamical and statistical downscaling approaches for west African precipitation and perform a regional climate model (RCM) intercomparison using the novel multi-model RCM data set from the Ensembles-based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) and African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) projects. Present RCMs have distinct systematic errors in terms of west African precipitation varying in amplitude and pattern across models. This is also reflected in a relatively large spread in projected future precipitation trends. Altogether, the ENSEMBLES RCMs indicate a prevailing drying tendency in sub-Saharan Africa. Statistical post-processing of simulated precipitation is a promising tool to reduce systematic model errors before application in impact studies. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society. Source

McDunn T.,University of Michigan | Bougher S.,University of Michigan | Murphy J.,NMSU | Kleinbohl A.,Jet Propulsion Laboratory | And 2 more authors.
Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets

We characterize middle-atmosphere polar warming (PW) using nearly three Martian years of temperature observations by the Mars Climate Sounder. We report the observed structure of PW and share hypotheses as to possible explanations, which have yet to be tested with global dynamical models. In the data, PW manifested between p = 15 Pa and p = 4.8×10-3 Pa. The latitude where PW maximized shifted poleward with decreasing pressure. The nightside magnitude was larger than the dayside magnitude. The maximum nightside magnitudes ranged from 22 to 67 K. As expected, the annual maximum magnitude in the north occurred during late-local fall to middle-local winter. In the south it occurred during late-local winter. Also as expected, the maximum magnitude near MY 28's southern winter solstice was smaller than that at that same year's northern winter solstice, when a global dust storm was occurring. Unexpectedly, the maximum magnitude at southern winter solstice was comparable to that at northern winter solstice for both MY 29 and MY 30, years that did not experience global dust storms but certainly experienced greater dust loading during L s = 270° than Ls = 90°. Another unexpected result was a hemispheric asymmetry in PW magnitude during most of the observed equinoxes. This paper also provides tables of (1) averaged temperatures as a function of latitude, pressure, and season, and (2) the maximum polar warming features as a function of pressure and season. These tables can be used to validate GCM calculations of middle-atmosphere temperatures and constrain calculations of unobserved winds. Key PointsPolar warming is characterized based on nearly three MYs of MCS temperaturesAverage temperatures are provided for validation of modeled temperaturesPolar warming characteristics are provided for constraint of modeled winds ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Source

Roehrig R.,CNRM GAME | Bouniol D.,CNRM GAME | Guichard F.,CNRM GAME | Hourdin F.,LMD | Redelsperger J.C.,LPO
Journal of Climate

The present assessment of the West African monsoon in the models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) indicates little evolution since the third phase of CMIP (CMIP3) in terms of both biases in present-day climate and climate projections. The outlook for precipitation in twenty-first-century coupled simulations exhibits opposite responses between the westernmost and eastern Sahel. The spread in the trend amplitude, however, remains large in both regions. Besides, although all models predict a spring and summer warming of the Sahel that is 10%-50% larger than the global warming, their temperature response ranges from 0 to 7 K. CMIP5 coupled models underestimate the monsoon decadal variability, but SST-imposed simulations succeed in capturing the recent partial recovery of monsoon rainfall. Coupled models still display major SST biases in the equatorial Atlantic, inducing a systematic southward shift of the monsoon. Because of these strong biases, the monsoon is further evaluated in SST-imposed simulations along the 108W-108E African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis(AMMA)transect, across a range of time scales ranging from seasonal to intraseasonal and diurnal fluctuations. The comprehensive set of observational data now available allows an in-depth evaluation of the monsoon across those scales, especially through the use of high-frequency outputs provided by some CMIP5models at selected sites along the AMMA transect. Most models capture many features of the African monsoon with varying degrees of accuracy. In particular, the simulation of the top-of-atmosphere and surface energy balances, in relation with the cloud cover, and the intermittence and diurnal cycle of precipitation demand further work to achieve a reasonable realism. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Source

Dupont J.C.,IPSL | Haeffelin M.,IPSL | Stolaki S.,LMD | Elias T.,HYGEOS
Pure and Applied Geophysics

The data from suite of in situ sensors, passive and active remote sensing instruments dedicated to document simultaneously radiative and thermo-dynamical processes driving the fog life cycle at the SIRTA Observatory (instrumented site for atmospheric remote sensing research) near Paris during two periods of 6 months are analysed. The study focuses on the analysis of the relative role of key physical processes and their interactions during fog formation, development and dissipation phases. This work presents, from analysis of detailed observations, the range of values that critical parameters have to take for fog and quasi-fog formation. In our study, we consider fog (horizontal visibility lower than 1 km, a dataset of 300 h) and quasi-fog (horizontal visibility ranging from 1 to 2 km, a dataset of 400 h) events induced by radiative cooling (53 events) and stratus lowering (64 events). For the radiative fog events, (with radiative cooling during prefog conditions), we note that the longwave net radiative flux (around −60 ± 5 W/m2) induces a cooling of the surface layer. The vertical structure of this cooling is controlled by dynamics, that is, wind shear and horizontal and vertical velocities. In case of very low mixing (wind speed below 0.6 m/s), the thermal stability is very strong with a temperature inversion around 3.5 °C for 10 m and a humidity gradient reaching 10 % preventing vertical development of the fog layer. For stratus-lowering fog events, the altitude of the stratus layer, the vertical mixing and the absolute value of humidity are driving parameters of the fog formation. Our statistical analysis shows that a stratus cloud with a cloud base around 170 m and with a small cloud-base subsidence rate of 50 m/h leads to fog, whereas a stratus cloud with a base around 800 m agl, with a larger cloud-base subsidence rate of 190 m/h conducts to quasi-fog situations with an important increase of the stratus liquid water path. © 2015, Springer Basel. Source

Rio C.,University Pierre and Marie Curie | Grandpeix J.-Y.,LMD | Hourdin F.,LMD | Guichard F.,Center National Of La Recherche Meteorologique Cnrm Game | And 8 more authors.
Climate Dynamics

Recently, a new conceptual framework for deep convection scheme triggering and closure has been developed and implemented in the LMDZ5B general circulation model, based on the idea that deep convection is controlled by sub-cloud lifting processes. Such processes include boundary-layer thermals and evaporatively-driven cold pools (wakes), which provide an available lifting energy that is compared to the convective inhibition to trigger deep convection, and an available lifting power (ALP) at cloud base, which is used to compute the convective mass flux assuming the updraft vertical velocity at the level of free convection. While the ALP closure was shown to delay the local hour of maximum precipitation over land in better agreement with observations, it results in an underestimation of the convection intensity over the tropical ocean both in the 1D and 3D configurations of the model. The specification of the updraft vertical velocity at the level of free convection appears to be a key aspect of the closure formulation, as it is weaker over tropical ocean than over land and weaker in moist mid-latitudes than semi-arid regions. We propose a formulation making this velocity increase with the level of free convection, so that the ALP closure is adapted to various environments. Cloud-resolving model simulations of observed oceanic and continental case studies are used to evaluate the representation of lifting processes and test the assumptions at the basis of the ALP closure formulation. Results favor closures based on the lifting power of sub-grid sub-cloud processes rather than those involving quasi-equilibrium with the large-scale environment. The new version of the model including boundary-layer thermals and cold pools coupled together with the deep convection scheme via the ALP closure significantly improves the representation of various observed case studies in 1D mode. It also substantially modifies precipitation patterns in the full 3D version of the model, including seasonal means, diurnal cycle and intraseasonal variability. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Source

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