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Guimberteau M.,Laboratoire dOceanographie et du Climat Experimentations et Approches Numeriques | Guimberteau M.,Institute Pierre Simon Laplace IPSL | Ronchail J.,Laboratoire dOceanographie et du Climat Experimentations et Approches Numeriques | Ronchail J.,Institute Pierre Simon Laplace IPSL | And 21 more authors.
Environmental Research Letters | Year: 2013

Because of climate change, much attention is drawn to the Amazon River basin, whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. Hydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated with precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins using the land surface model ORCHIDEE and a multimodel approach. Climate change scenarios from up to eight AR4 Global Climate Models based on three emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under the SRESA1B scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River (Óbidos station), but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period, leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. Contrasting discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. In the western upper part of the basin, which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation, high flow shows a 7% relative increase for the middle of the 21st century and the signal is enhanced for the end of the century (12%). By contrast, simulated precipitation decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease at several stations, especially in the Xingu River, where it reaches -50%, associated with a 9% reduction in the runoff coefficient. A 18% high-flow decrease is also found in this river. In the north, the low-flow decrease becomes higher toward the east: a 55% significant decrease in the eastern Branco River is associated with a 13% reduction in the runoff coefficient. The estimation of the streamflow elasticity to precipitation indicates that southern sub-basins (except for the mountainous Beni River), that have low runoff coefficients, will become more responsive to precipitation change (with a 5 to near 35% increase in elasticity) than the western sub-basins, experiencing high runoff coefficient and no change in streamflow elasticity to precipitation. These projections raise important issues for populations living near the rivers whose activity is regulated by the present annual cycle of waters. The question of their adaptability has already arisen. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.


Tchilibou M.,CIPMA | Delcroix T.,Laboratoire dEtudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale | Alory G.,CIPMA | Alory G.,Laboratoire dEtudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale | And 2 more authors.
Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans | Year: 2015

This study focuses on the time-space variability of the low Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) waters extending zonally within 2°N-12°N in the Atlantic and Pacific and within 6°S-16°S in the western third of the Pacific. The analysis is based on a combination of in situ SSS observations collected in the last three decades from voluntary observing ships, TAO/TRITON and PIRATA moorings, Argo floats, and (few) CTD profiles. The mean latitudes of the Atlantic and Pacific low SSS waters appear 1°-3° further poleward than the Evaporation minus Precipitation (E-P) minima linked to the Inter Tropical Convergence Zones (ITCZ) and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). At the seasonal time scale, the E-P minima migrate poleward in summer hemispheres, leading the migration of the SSS minima by 2-3 months in the Atlantic ITCZ, Pacific SPCZ, and in the eastern part of the Pacific ITCZ. On the other hand, the seasonal displacements of E-P and SSS minima are in antiphase in the central and western parts of the Pacific ITCZ. At the interannual time scale, the E-P and SSS minima migrate poleward during La Nina events in the Pacific and during the positive phase of the Atlantic Meridional Dipole (AMD) in the Atlantic (and vice versa during El Nino and the negative phase of the AMD). We further document long-term (1979-2009) meridional migrations of the E-P and SSS minima, especially in the SPCZ region, and discuss whether or not they are consistent with documented SST and wind stress trends. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.


Sallee J.-B.,British Antarctic Survey | Shuckburgh E.,British Antarctic Survey | Bruneau N.,British Antarctic Survey | Meijers A.J.S.,British Antarctic Survey | And 3 more authors.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans | Year: 2013

The ability of the models contributing to the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to represent the Southern Ocean hydrological properties and its overturning is investigated in a water mass framework. Models have a consistent warm and light bias spread over the entire water column. The greatest bias occurs in the ventilated layers, which are volumetrically dominated by mode and intermediate layers. The ventilated layers have been observed to have a strong fingerprint of climate change and to impact climate by sequestrating a significant amount of heat and carbon dioxide. The mode water layer is poorly represented in the models and both mode and intermediate water have a significant fresh bias. Under increased radiative forcing, models simulate a warming and lightening of the entire water column, which is again greatest in the ventilated layers, highlighting the importance of these layers for propagating the climate signal into the deep ocean. While the intensity of the water mass overturning is relatively consistent between models, when compared to observation-based reconstructions, they exhibit a slightly larger rate of overturning at shallow to intermediate depths, and a slower rate of overturning deeper in the water column. Under increased radiative forcing, atmospheric fluxes increase the rate of simulated upper cell overturning, but this increase is counterbalanced by diapycnal fluxes, including mixed-layer horizontal mixing, and mostly vanishes. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.


Barbero L.,Laboratoire dOceanographie et du Climat Experimentations et Approches Numeriques | Boutin J.,Laboratoire dOceanographie et du Climat Experimentations et Approches Numeriques | Merlivat L.,Laboratoire dOceanographie et du Climat Experimentations et Approches Numeriques | Martin N.,Laboratoire dOceanographie et du Climat Experimentations et Approches Numeriques | And 3 more authors.
Global Biogeochemical Cycles | Year: 2011

CARIOCA drifters and ship data from several cruises in the Subantarctic Zone (SAZ) of the Pacific Ocean, approximately 40°S-55°S, have been used in order to investigate surface CO2 partial pressure (pCO 2) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) patterns. The highest DIC values were determined in regions of deep water formation, characterized by deep mixed layer depths (MLD) as estimated from Argo float profiles. As a result, these areas act as sources of CO2 to the atmosphere. Using an empirical linear relationship between DIC, sea surface temperature (SST), and MLD, we then combine DIC with AT based on salinity and compute pCO2. Finally, we derive monthly fields of air-sea CO2 flux in the SAZ. Our fit predicts the existence of a realistic seasonal cycle, close to equilibrium with the atmosphere in winter and a sink when biological activity takes place. It also reproduces the impact that deep water formation regions close to the Subantarctic Front (SAF) and in the eastern part of the SAZ have on the uptake capacity of the area. These areas, undersampled in previous studies, have high pCO2, and as a result, our estimates (0.05 ± 0.03 PgC yr-1) indicate that the Pacific SAZ acts as a weaker sink of CO2 than suggested by previous studies which neglect these source regions. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.


Verrier S.,University of Versailles | Verrier S.,Laboratoire dOceanographie et du Climat Experimentations et Approches Numeriques | Verrier S.,French National Center for Space Studies | Barthes L.,University of Versailles | Mallet C.,University of Versailles
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres | Year: 2013

Estimation of rainfall intensities from radar measurements relies to a large extent on power-laws relationships between rain rates R and radar reflectivities Z, i.e., Z = a*Rb. These relationships are generally applied unawarely of the scale, which is questionable since the nonlinearity of these relations could lead to undesirable discrepancies when combined with scale aggregation. Since the parameters (a,b) are expectedly related with drop size distribution (DSD) properties, they are often derived at disdrometer scale, not at radar scale, which could lead to errors at the latter. We propose to investigate the statistical behavior of Z-R relationships across scales both on theoretical and empirical sides. Theoretically, it is shown that claimed multifractal properties of rainfall processes could constrain the parameters (a,b) such that the exponent b would be scale independent but the prefactor a would be growing as a (slow) power law of time or space scale. In the empirical part (which may be read independently of theoretical considerations), high-resolution disdrometer (Dual-Beam Spectropluviometer) data of rain rates and reflectivity factors are considered at various integration times comprised in the range 15 s - 64 min. A variety of regression techniques is applied on Z-R scatterplots at all these time scales, establishing empirical evidence of a behavior coherent with theoretical considerations: a grows as a 0.1 power law of scale while b decreases more slightly. The properties of a are suggested to be closely linked to inhomogeneities in the DSDs since extensions of Z-R relationships involving (here, strongly nonconstant) normalization parameters of the DSDs seem to be more robust across scales. The scale dependence of simple Z = a*Rb relationships is advocated to be a possible source of overestimation of rainfall intensities or accumulations. Several ways for correcting such scaling biases (which can reach >15-20% in terms of relative error) are suggested. Such corrections could be useful in some practical cases where Z-R scale biases are significant, which is especially expected for convective rainfall. Key Points Reflectivity-rain rates (Z-R) relationships should be sensitive to resolution Demonstration from multifractal theory and from the study of disdrometer data Normalized relations (involving N0*,Dm) seem more robust with scale ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.


Renault L.,Sistema dObservacio i Prediccio Costaner de les Illes Balears | Dewitte B.,Laboratoire dEtudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale | Marchesiello P.,Laboratoire dEtudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale | Illig S.,Laboratoire dEtudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale | And 6 more authors.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans | Year: 2012

The spatial and temporal variability of nearshore winds in eastern boundary current systems affect the oceanic heat balance that drives sea surface temperature changes. In this study, regional atmospheric and oceanic simulations are used to document such processes during an atmospheric coastal jet event off central Chile. The event is well reproduced by the atmospheric model and is associated with the migration of an anomalous anticyclone in the southeastern Pacific region during October 2000. A robust feature of the simulation is a sharp coastal wind dropoff, which is insensitive to model resolution. As expected, the simulated oceanic response is a significant sea surface cooling. A surface heat budget analysis shows that vertical mixing is a major contributor to the cooling tendency both in the jet core area and in the nearshore zone where the magnitude of this term is comparable to the magnitude of vertical advection. Sensitivity experiments show that the oceanic response in the coastal area is sensitive to wind dropoff representation. This is because total upwelling, i.e., the sum of coastal upwelling and Ekman pumping, depends on the scale of wind dropoff. Because the latter is much larger than the upwelling scale, coastal wind dropoff has only a weak positive effect on vertical velocities driven by Ekman pumping but has a strong negative effect on coastal upwelling. Interestingly though, the weakening of coastal winds in the dropoff zone has a larger effect on vertical mixing than on vertical advection, with both effects contributing to a reduction of cooling. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.

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