Poberaj C.S.,ETH Zurich |
Staehelin J.,ETH Zurich |
Bintania R.,Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute |
Van Velthoven P.,Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute |
And 9 more authors.
DLR Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. - Forschungsberichte | Year: 2010
In the EU Integrated project QUANTIFY, atmospheric chemistry models (ACMs) are one of the major tools to improve the understanding of key processes relevant for the effects of different transportation modes, and their representation in global models. The performance of the ACMs has been tested through comparisons with the ETH model evaluation global database for the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Data from measurement campaigns, ozone soundings, and surface data have been processed to support an easy and direct comparison with model output. Since model evaluation focuses on the year 2003, observational data to compare model data with are the SPURT campaign and the commercial aircraft program MOZAIC. The model evaluation indicates a particular problem in the simulation of carbon monoxide. If QUANTIFY emissions inventories are used, models significantly underestimate its tropospheric abundance at northern hemispheric middle latitudes and subtropical latitudes. Potential causes will be discussed.
Bergamaschi P.,European Commission - Joint Research Center Ispra |
Krol M.,SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research |
Krol M.,Wageningen University |
Krol M.,Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht |
And 15 more authors.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres | Year: 2010
European CH4 emissions are estimated for the period 2001-2006 using a four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) inverse modeling system, based on the atmospheric zoom model TM5. Continuous observations are used from various European monitoring stations, complemented by European and global flask samples from the NOAA/ESRL network. The available observations mainly provide information on the emissions from northwest Europe (NWE), including the UK, Ireland, the BENELUX countries, France and Germany. The inverse modeling estimates for the total anthropogenic emissions from NWE are 21% higher compared to the EDGARv4.0 emission inventory and 40% higher than values reported to U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. Assuming overall uncertainties on the order of 30% for both bottom-up and top-down estimates, all three estimates can be still considered to be consistent with each other. However, the uncertainties in the uncertainty estimates prevent us from verifying (or falsifying) the bottom-up inventories in a strict sense. Sensitivity studies show some dependence of the derived spatial emission patterns on the set of atmospheric monitoring stations used, but the total emissions for the NWE countries appear to be relatively robust. While the standard inversions include a priori information on the spatial and temporal emission patterns from bottom-up inventories, a further sensitivity inversion without this a priori information results in very similar NWE country totals, demonstrating that the available observations provide significant constraints on the emissions from the NWE countries independent from bottom-up inventories. © Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.
Warszawski L.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research |
Friend A.,University of Cambridge |
Ostberg S.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research |
Frieler K.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research |
And 20 more authors.
Environmental Research Letters | Year: 2013
Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth's ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5-19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980-2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.
Saurer M.,Paul Scherrer Institute |
Spahni R.,University of Bern |
Frank D.C.,Swiss Federal Institute of forest |
Frank D.C.,University of Bern |
And 31 more authors.
Global Change Biology | Year: 2014
The increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere in combination with climatic changes throughout the last century are likely to have had a profound effect on the physiology of trees: altering the carbon and water fluxes passing through the stomatal pores. However, the magnitude and spatial patterns of such changes in natural forests remain highly uncertain. Here, stable carbon isotope ratios from a network of 35 tree-ring sites located across Europe are investigated to determine the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), the ratio of photosynthesis to stomatal conductance from 1901 to 2000. The results were compared with simulations of a dynamic vegetation model (LPX-Bern 1.0) that integrates numerous ecosystem and land-atmosphere exchange processes in a theoretical framework. The spatial pattern of tree-ring derived iWUE of the investigated coniferous and deciduous species and the model results agreed significantly with a clear south-to-north gradient, as well as a general increase in iWUE over the 20th century. The magnitude of the iWUE increase was not spatially uniform, with the strongest increase observed and modelled for temperate forests in Central Europe, a region where summer soil-water availability decreased over the last century. We were able to demonstrate that the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change leading to soil drying have resulted in an accelerated increase in iWUE. These findings will help to reduce uncertainties in the land surface schemes of global climate models, where vegetation-climate feedbacks are currently still poorly constrained by observational data. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Zanchetta G.,University of Pisa |
Sulpizio R.,University of Bari |
Roberts N.,University of Plymouth |
Cioni R.,University of Cagliari |
And 6 more authors.
Holocene | Year: 2011
The identification and characterisation of high-frequency climatic changes during the Holocene requires natural archives with precise and accurate chronological control, which is usually difficult to achieve using only 14C chronologies. The presence of time-spaced tephra beds in Quaternary Mediterranean successions represents an additional, independent tool for dating and correlating different sedimentary archives. These tephra layers are potentially useful for resolving long-standing issues in paleoclimatology and can help towards correlating terrestrial and marine paleoclimate archives. Known major tephras of regional extent derive from central and southern Italy, the Hellenic Arc, and from Anatolia. A striking feature of major Holocene tephra deposition events in the Mediterranean is that they are clustered rather than randomly distributed in time. Several tephra layers occurred at the time of the S1 sapropel formation between c. 8.4 and 9.0 ka BP (Mercato, Gabellotto-Fiumebianco/E1, Cappadocia) and other important tephra layers (Avellino, Agnano Monte Spina, 'Khabur' and Santorini/Thera) occurred during the second and third millennia BC, marking an important and complex phase of environmental changes during the mid- to late-Holocene climatic transition. There is great potential in using cryptotephra to overlap geographically Italian volcanic ashes with those originating from the Aegean and Anatolia, in order to connect regional tephrochronologies between the central and eastern Mediterranean. © The Author(s) 2011.
Stevenson D.S.,University of Edinburgh |
Young P.J.,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
Young P.J.,University of Colorado at Boulder |
Young P.J.,Lancaster University |
And 35 more authors.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Year: 2013
Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m-2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (±1 standard deviation) in RFs of ±17%. Three different radiation schemes were used - we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of ±10%. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3%. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of ±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44±12%), nitrogen oxides (31 ± 9%), carbon monoxide (15 ± 3%) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 ± 2%); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m-2 DU-1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m-2; relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.
Telford P.J.,University of Cambridge |
Lathiere J.,University of Sheffield |
Lathiere J.,Lancaster University |
Lathiere J.,Laboratoire Des Science Du Climat Et Of Lenvironment |
And 14 more authors.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Year: 2010
In the 1990s the rates of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations, most notably of methane, were observed to change, for reasons that have yet to be fully determined. This period included the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo and an El Niño warm event, both of which affect biogeochemical processes, by changes in temperature, precipitation and radiation. We examine the impact of these changes in climate on global isoprene emissions and the effect these climate dependent emissions have on the hydroxy radical, OH, the dominant sink for methane. We model a reduction of isoprene emissions in the early 1990s, with a maximum decrease of 40 Tg(C)/yr in late 1992 and early 1993, a change of 9%. This reduction is caused by the cooler, drier conditions following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Isoprene emissions are reduced both directly, by changes in temperature and a soil moisture dependent suppression factor, and indirectly, through reductions in the total biomass. The reduction in isoprene emissions causes increases of tropospheric OH which lead to an increased sink for methane of up to 5 Tg(CH4)/year, comparable to estimated source changes over the time period studied. There remain many uncertainties in the emission and oxidation of isoprene which may affect the exact size of this effect, but its magnitude is large enough that it should remain important. © 2010 Author(s).
Stott P.A.,UK Met Office |
Christidis N.,UK Met Office |
Otto F.E.L.,University of Oxford |
Sun Y.,National Climate Center |
And 7 more authors.
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change | Year: 2016
Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.