Winkler J.A.,Michigan State University |
Thornsbury S.,University of Michigan |
Artavia M.,Humboldt University of Berlin |
Chmielewski F.-M.,Humboldt University of Berlin |
And 29 more authors.
Climatic Change | Year: 2010
A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed. The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling. Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices. An important component of the framework is the assessment of the "metauncertainty" arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models. The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes. The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable. Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry. The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems. © 2009 The Author(s).
Kaskie B.,University of Iowa |
Obrizan M.,Kyiv Economics Institute |
Jones M.P.,University of Iowa |
Jones M.P.,Cadre Inc |
And 10 more authors.
BMC Geriatrics | Year: 2011
Background: It is well known that older adults figure prominently in the use of emergency departments (ED) across the United States. Previous research has differentiated ED visits by levels of clinical severity and found health status and other individual characteristics distinguished severe from non-severe visits. In this research, we classified older adults into population groups that persistently present with severe, non-severe, or indeterminate patterns of ED episodes. We then contrasted the three groups using a comprehensive set of covariates. Methods. Using a unique dataset linking individual characteristics with Medicare claims for calendar years 1991-2007, we identified patterns of ED use among the large, nationally representative AHEAD sample consisting of 5,510 older adults. We then classified one group of older adults who persistently presented to the ED with clinically severe episodes and another group who persistently presented to the ED with non-severe episodes. These two groups were contrasted using logistic regression, and then contrasted against a third group with a persistent pattern of ED episodes with indeterminate levels of severity using multinomial logistic regression. Variable selection was based on Andersen's behavioral model of health services use and featured clinical status, demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, health behaviors, health service use patterns, local health care supply, and other contextual effects. Results: We identified 948 individuals (17.2% of the entire sample) who presented a pattern in which their ED episodes were typically defined as severe and 1,076 individuals (19.5%) who typically presented with non-severe episodes. Individuals who persistently presented to the ED with severe episodes were more likely to be older (AOR 1.52), men (AOR 1.28), current smokers (AOR 1.60), experience diabetes (AOR (AOR 1.80), heart disease (AOR 1.70), hypertension (AOR 1.32) and have a greater amount of morbidity (AOR 1.48) than those who persistently presented to the ED with non-severe episodes. When contrasted with 1,177 individuals with a persistent pattern of indeterminate severity ED use, persons with severe patterns were older (AOR 1.36), more likely to be obese (AOR 1.36), and experience heart disease (AOR 1.49) and hypertension (AOR 1.36) while persons with non-severe patterns were less likely to smoke (AOR 0.63) and have diabetes (AOR 0.67) or lung disease (AOR 0.58). Conclusions: We distinguished three large, readily identifiable groups of older adults which figure prominently in the use of EDs across the United States. Our results suggest that one group affects the general capacity of the ED to provide care as they persistently present with severe episodes requiring urgent staff attention and greater resource allocation. Another group persistently presents with non-severe episodes and creates a considerable share of the excess demand for ED care. Future research should determine how chronic disease management programs and varied co-payment obligations might impact the use of the ED by these two large and distinct groups of older adults with consistent ED use patterns. © 2011Kaskie et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Wolinsky F.D.,University of Iowa |
Bentler S.E.,University of Iowa |
Hockenberry J.,University of Iowa |
Hockenberry J.,Cadre Inc |
And 6 more authors.
BMC Geriatrics | Year: 2011
Background: Most prior studies have focused on short-term ( 2 years) functional declines. But those studies cannot address aging effects inasmuch as all participants have aged the same amount. Therefore, the authors studied the extent of long-term functional decline in older Medicare beneficiaries who were followed for varying time lengths, and the authors also identified the risk factors associated with those declines. Methods. The analytic sample included 5,871 self- or proxy-respondents who had complete baseline and follow-up survey data that could be linked to their Medicare claims for 1993-2007. Functional status was assessed using activities of daily living (ADLs), instrumental ADLs (IADLs), and mobility limitations, with declines defined as the development of two of more new difficulties. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to focus on the associations involving respondent status, health lifestyle, continuity of care, managed care status, health shocks, and terminal drop. Results: The average amount of time between the first and final interviews was 8.0 years. Declines were observed for 36.6% on ADL abilities, 32.3% on IADL abilities, and 30.9% on mobility abilities. Functional decline was more likely to occur when proxy-reports were used, and the effects of baseline function on decline were reduced when proxy-reports were used. Engaging in vigorous physical activity consistently and substantially protected against functional decline, whereas obesity, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption were only associated with mobility declines. Post-baseline hospitalizations were the most robust predictors of functional decline, exhibiting a dose-response effect such that the greater the average annual number of hospital episodes, the greater the likelihood of functional status decline. Participants whose final interview preceded their death by one year or less had substantially greater odds of functional status decline. Conclusions: Both the additive and interactive (with functional status) effects of respondent status should be taken into consideration whenever proxy-reports are used. Encouraging exercise could broadly reduce the risk of functional decline across all three outcomes, although interventions encouraging weight reduction and smoking cessation would only affect mobility declines. Reducing hospitalization and re-hospitalization rates could also broadly reduce the risk of functional decline across all three outcomes. © 2011 Wolinsky et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Kaskie B.,University of Iowa |
Obrizan M.,Kyiv Economics Institute |
Cook E.A.,University of Iowa |
Jones M.P.,Center for Research on the Implementation of Innovative Strategies into Practice |
And 13 more authors.
BMC Health Services Research | Year: 2010
Background. Episodes of Emergency Department (ED) service use among older adults previously have not been constructed, or evaluated as multi-dimensional phenomena. In this study, we constructed episodes of ED service use among a cohort of older adults over a 15-year observation period, measured the episodes by severity and intensity, and compared these measures in predicting subsequent hospitalization. Methods. We conducted a secondary analysis of the prospective cohort study entitled the Survey on Assets and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD). Baseline (1993) data on 5,511 self-respondents 70 years old were linked to their Medicare claims for 1991-2005. Claims then were organized into episodes of ED care according to Medicare guidelines. The severity of ED episodes was measured with a modified-NYU algorithm using ICD9-CM diagnoses, and the intensity of the episodes was measured using CPT codes. Measures were evaluated against subsequent hospitalization to estimate comparative predictive validity. Results. Over 15 years, three-fourths (4,171) of the 5,511 AHEAD participants had at least 1 ED episode, with a mean of 4.5 episodes. Cross-classification indicated the modified-NYU severity measure and the CPT-based intensity measure captured different aspects of ED episodes (kappa = 0.18). While both measures were significant independent predictors of hospital admission from ED episodes, the CPT measure had substantially higher predictive validity than the modified-NYU measure (AORs 5.70 vs. 3.31; p < .001). Conclusions. We demonstrated an innovative approach for how claims data can be used to construct episodes of ED care among a sample of older adults. We also determined that the modified-NYU measure of severity and the CPT measure of intensity tap different aspects of ED episodes, and that both measures were predictive of subsequent hospitalization. © 2010 Kaskie et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Avrutin V.,University of Stuttgart |
Sushko I.,Ukrainian Academy of Sciences |
Sushko I.,Kyiv Economics Institute |
Gardini L.,Urbino University
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation | Year: 2014
A chaotic attractor may consist of some number of bands (disjoint connected subsets). In continuous maps multi-band chaotic attractors are cyclic, that means every generic trajectory visits the bands in the same order. We demonstrate that in discontinuous maps multi-band chaotic attractors may be acyclic. Additionally, a simple criterion is proposed which allows to distinguish easily between cyclic and acyclic chaotic attractors. © 2012 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Coupe T.,Kyiv Economics Institute
Research Policy | Year: 2013
In this paper, I analyze the 'best paper' prizes given by economics and finance journals to the best article published in their journal in a given year. More specifically, I compare the citations received by best paper prize-winning papers to citations received by papers that are awarded runner up prizes and to citations received by non-winning papers. In this way, I evaluate to what extent evaluation outcomes based on peer review correspond to evaluation outcomes based on citation counts. The data show that the paper that gets the 'best paper' prize, is rarely the most cited paper; is, in a small majority of cases, cited more than the runner up papers and is, in most cases, cited more than the median paper. I also explore whether characteristics of the prizes or the papers correlate with this difference in outcomes between peer review and citation counts and find there is no easy way to reduce the difference in outcomes between these two evaluation methods © 2012 Elsevier B.V.
Nizalova O.Y.,Kyiv Economics Institute |
Vyshnya M.,National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
Health Economics | Year: 2010
This paper exploits a unique opportunity to evaluate the impact of the quality change in the labor and delivery services brought about by the Mother and Infant Health Project in Ukraine. Employing program evaluation methods, we find that the administrative units participating in the Project have exhibited greater improvements in both maternal and infant health compared to the control ones. Among the infant health characteristics, the MIHP impact is most pronounced for infant mortality resulting from deviations in perinatal period. As for the maternal health, the MIHP is the most effective at combating anemia, blood circulation and urinary-genital system complications, and late toxicosis. The analysis suggests that the effects are due to early attendance of antenatal clinics, lower share of C-sections, and greater share of normal deliveries. Preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis shows enormous benefit per dollar spent on the project: the cost to benefit ratio is one to 97 taking into account both maternal and infant lives saved as well as cost savings due to the changes in labor and delivery practices. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.