Kontali Analyse AS
Kontali Analyse AS
News Article | May 11, 2017
SALMON farming giant Marine Harvest has more than doubled its first quarter pre-tax profits (EBIT) with most sectors, including Scotland, putting in a strong performance. The company achieved an operational EBIT of 220 million euros over the first three months of 2017 compared with 112 million euros for the same period last year. CEO Alf-Helge Aarskog (pictured) said: ‘Driven by all-time high salmon prices, we achieved record high operational results in the first quarter. ‘It is especially encouraging to see strong operational performance in Marine Harvest Scotland and Marine Harvest Canada.’ Supported by the good results, a strong market looking forward, and a solid financial position, the board has proposed a quarterly dividend of NOK 3.00 per share, subject to approval by the AGM in June. The group reported operational revenues of 892 million euros (up by 82 million euros) during the period. Total harvest volume was 83,768 tonnes in the quarter (compared to 96,613 in the same period in 2016). Harvest guidance for 2017 is 403,000 tonnes, which the company says is in line with the previous guidance. Salmon of Norwegian origin achieved an operational EBIT per kilo of 2.52 euros (1.87) in the first quarter, while salmon of Scottish and Canadian origin reported operational EBIT per kilo of 3.12 euros and 3.42 euros respectively (0.68 and 1.97 euros in 2016). Salmon of Chilean origin reported operational EBIT per kilo of 1.87 euros in the quarter (-1.55 euros). MH Feed reported an operational EBIT of 0.1 million euros (1.6 million). MH Consumer Products reported an operational EBIT of 9.6 million euros (-0.6 million). I am very pleased with the result Marine Harvest Consumer Products has achieved so far this year, seasonality taken into account. Consumer Products has improved its operations in all areas,’ said Aarskog. ‘We are also pleased to announce that Marine Harvest has entered into a term sheet to refinance its existing bank facility with a senior secured five-year 1,206 million euros credit facility with DNB, Nordea, ABN Amro, Rabobank, Danske Bank and SEB.’ The company also published its annual handbook this week, in which it projected that growth in the worldwide supply of Atlantic salmon would continue to slow down. Supply increased by 384 per cent since 1995 (an annual growth of eight per cent), but the annual growth has been five per cent between 2005 and 2016. Kontali Analyse expects growth to diminish further going forward and has projected a three per cent annual growth from 2016 to 2020. ‘The background for this trend is that the industry has reached a production level where biological boundaries are being pushed,’ said Marine Harvest in its handbook. ‘It is therefore expected that future growth can no longer be driven by industry/regulators decisions alone, but be subject to implementation of means to reduce the industry’s biological footprint. ‘This requires progress in technology, development of improved pharmaceutical products, implementation of non-pharmaceutical techniques, improved industry regulations and intercompany cooperation. ‘Too rapid growth without these conditions being met adversely impacts biological indicators, costs, and in turn output.’ In Norway, the total maximum allowable biomass capacity is expected to gradually increase this year, mainly due to the implementation of previously announced green licences and the gradual approval of development licence applications. By May 1, 2017, some 56 development (or ‘concept’) applications had been submitted, out of which three had been approved and 11 denied. The concepts mainly vary in their exposure to the sea, open versus closed structure, and between submerged and non-submerged solutions. Marine Harvest has applied for four different projects with a total of 34 licences. So far, the Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries has decided that the company’s ‘Egg’ and ‘Marine Donut’ concepts qualify for the development licences scheme.
Nagel-Alne G.E.,Goat Health Service |
Asheim L.J.,Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute |
Hardaker J.B.,University of New England of Australia |
Solverod L.,Goat Health Service |
And 2 more authors.
Preventive Veterinary Medicine | Year: 2014
The aim of this study was to evaluate the profitability to dairy goat farmers of participating in the Healthier Goats disease control and eradication programme (HG), which was initiated in 2001 and is still running. HG includes the control and eradication of caprine arthritis encephalitis (CAE), caseous lymphadenitis (CLA) and paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in Norwegian goat herds.The profitability of participation was estimated in a financial cost-benefit analysis (CBA) using partial budgeting to quantify the economic consequences of infectious disease control through HG versus taking no action. Historical data were collected from 24 enrolled dairy goat herds and 21 herds not enrolled in HG, and supplemented with information from a questionnaire distributed to the same farmers. Expert opinions were collected to arrive at the best possible estimates. For some input parameters there were uncertainty due to imperfect knowledge, thus these parameters were modelled as PERT probability distributions and a stochastic simulation model was built.The CBA model was used to generate distributions of net present value (NPV) of farmers' net cash flows for choosing to enroll versus not enrolling. This was done for three selected milk quota levels of 30. 000. L, 50. 000. L and 70. 000. L, and both for before and after the introduction of a reduced milk price for the non-enrolled. The NPVs were calculated over time horizons of 5, 10 and 20 years using an inflation-adjusted discount rate of 2.8% per annum. The results show that participation in HG on average was profitable over a time horizon of 10 years or longer for quota levels of 50. 000. L and 70. 000. L, although not without risk of having a negative NPV.If farmers had to pay all the costs themselves, participation in HG would have been profitable only for a time horizon beyond 20 years.In 2012, a reduced milk price was introduced for farmers not enrolled in HG, changing the decision criteria for farmers, and thus, the CBA. When the analysis was altered to account for these changes, the expected NPV was positive over five years for the 50. 000. L quota, indicating an increased profitability of enrolling in HG.The sensitivity analysis showed that particular attention should be paid to work load and investment costs when planning for disease control programmes in the future. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.
Valle P.S.,Kontali Analyse AS
Animal Welfare | Year: 2013
To ensure that farm animal welfare issues are identified and addressed appropriately, there is a need for robust on-farm welfare assessment protocols. This paper describes the development of a comprehensive welfare assessment protocol for dairy goats (Capra hircus) and its testing on 30 commercial dairy goat farms in Norway. The protocol combines animal-based welfare indicators with measures of husbandry provisions to enable the identification of welfare problems and challenges inherent to the production system. The study also includes a first report of group level qualitative behavioural assessments (QBA) of goats. Due to reliability and validity issues related to behavioural assessments of human-animal interactions, indices of stockperson attitudes were incorporated as a complementary assessment of stockmanship. The most prevalent physical conditions observed were ocular discharge, skin lesions, udder asymmetry, calluses on knees and hocks, and overgrown claws. Moreover, fear levels appeared to be of particular concern in some herds. Significant associations were found between qualitative behavioural assessments and measures of health and stockmanship. Floor type was associated with four animal-based welfare outcomes. Reliability and validity of goat welfare indicators need to be further tested, and intervention plans and thresholds need to be determined so that advice can be tailored to the specific problems identified on each farm. We conclude that the protocol can work as a tool to identify welfare issues in dairy goat herds, and that this study may be a valuable contribution to the development of a much-needed welfare assessment protocol for dairy goats. © 2013 Universities Federation for Animal Welfare.
Nagel-Alne G.E.,TINE Norwegian Dairies |
Bohlin J.,Norwegian Institute of Public Health |
Valle P.S.,Kontali Analyse AS |
Solverod L.S.,TINE Norwegian Dairies
Journal of Dairy Science | Year: 2014
In 2001, the Norwegian Goat Health Service initiated the Healthier Goats program (HG), with the aim of eradicating caprine arthritis encephalitis, caseous lymphadenitis, and Johne's disease (caprine paratuberculosis) in Norwegian goat herds. The aim of the present study was to explore how control and eradication of the above-mentioned diseases by enrolling in HG affected milk yield by comparison with herds not enrolled in HG. Lactation curves were modeled using a multilevel cubic spline regression model where farm, goat, and lactation were included as random effect parameters. The data material contained 135,446 registrations of daily milk yield from 28,829 lactations in 43 herds. The multilevel cubic spline regression model was applied to 4 categories of data: enrolled early, control early, enrolled late, and control late. For enrolled herds, the early and late notations refer to the situation before and after enrolling in HG; for nonenrolled herds (controls), they refer to development over time, independent of HG. Total milk yield increased in the enrolled herds after eradication: the total milk yields in the fourth lactation were 634.2 and 873.3. kg in enrolled early and enrolled late herds, respectively, and 613.2 and 701.4. kg in the control early and control late herds, respectively. Day of peak yield differed between enrolled and control herds. The day of peak yield came on d 6 of lactation for the control early category for parities 2, 3, and 4, indicating an inability of the goats to further increase their milk yield from the initial level. For enrolled herds, on the other hand, peak yield came between d 49 and 56, indicating a gradual increase in milk yield after kidding. Our results indicate that enrollment in the HG disease eradication program improved the milk yield of dairy goats considerably, and that the multilevel cubic spline regression was a suitable model for exploring effects of disease control and eradication on milk yield. © 2014 American Dairy Science Association.
Agency: European Commission | Branch: H2020 | Program: RIA | Phase: BG-10-2014 | Award Amount: 5.28M | Year: 2015
The overall aim of PrimeFish is to improve the economic sustainability of European fisheries and aquaculture sectors. PrimeFish will gather data from individual production companies, industry and sales organisations, consumers and public sources. The data will be related to the competitiveness and economic performance of companies in the sector; this includes data on price development, supply chain relations, markets, consumer behaviour and successful product innovation. The large industry reference group will facilitate access to data on specific case studies. A data repository will be created, and PrimeFish will join the H2020 Open Research Data Pilot to ensure future open access to the data. The effectiveness of demand stimulation through health, label and certification claims will be evaluated and compared with actual consumer behaviour. PrimeFish will assess the non-market value associated with aquaculture and captured fisheries as well as the effectiveness of regulatory systems and thereby provide the basis for improved societal decision making in the future. The collected data will be used to verify models and develop prediction algorithms that will be implemented into a computerized decision support system (PrimeDSS). The PrimeDSS, together with the underlying data, models, algorithms, assumptions and accompanying user instructions will form the PrimeFish Decision Support Framework (PrimeDSF). The lead users, typically fishermen, aquaculture producers and production companies, will be able to use the PrimeDSF to improve understanding of the functioning of their markets and in setting strategic plans for future production and innovation which in turn will strengthen the long term viability of the European fisheries and aquaculture sectors. This will also benefit consumers, leading to more diversified European seafood products, enhanced added value, novel products and improved information on origin, certification and health claims.
Nagel-Alne G.E.,Norwegian University of Life Sciences |
Valle P.S.,Kontali Analyse AS |
Krontveit R.,Norwegian University of Life Sciences |
Solverod L.S.,TINE Mastitis Laboratory
Veterinary Record | Year: 2015
The objective of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of two ELISA tests applied to bulk tank milk (BTM) as the first part of a two-step test scheme for the surveillance of caprine arthritis encephalitis (CAE) and caseous lymphadenitis (CLA) infections in goats. The herd-level BTM tests were assessed by comparing them to the test results of individual serological samples. The potential for refining the cut-off levels for BTM tests used as surveillance tools in a population recently cleared of infection was also investigated. Data was gathered on serum (nCAE =9702 and nCLA=13426) and corresponding BTM (nCAE=78 and nCLA=123) samples from dairy goat herds enrolled in the Norwegian disease control and eradication programme 'eHealthier Goats'f. The results showed that the sensitivity and specificity of the CAE ELISA BTM test with respect to detecting .2 per cent within-herd prevalence were 72.7 per cent and 86.6 per cent, respectively. For the CLA ELISA BTM the sensitivity and specificity were 41.4 per cent and 81.7 per cent, respectively, for the same goal of detection. The results suggest that BTM testing can be applied as a cost-effective first step for early detection of CAE and CLA infection.
PubMed | Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Kontali Analyse AS and TINE Mastitis Laboratory
Type: Journal Article | Journal: The Veterinary record | Year: 2015
The objective of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of two ELISA tests applied to bulk tank milk (BTM) as the first part of a two-step test scheme for the surveillance of caprine arthritis encephalitis (CAE) and caseous lymphadenitis (CLA) infections in goats. The herd-level BTM tests were assessed by comparing them to the test results of individual serological samples. The potential for refining the cut-off levels for BTM tests used as surveillance tools in a population recently cleared of infection was also investigated. Data was gathered on serum (nCAE =9702 and nCLA=13426) and corresponding BTM (nCAE=78 and nCLA=123) samples from dairy goat herds enrolled in the Norwegian disease control and eradication programme Healthier Goats. The results showed that the sensitivity and specificity of the CAE ELISA BTM test with respect to detecting 2 per cent within-herd prevalence were 72.7 per cent and 86.6 per cent, respectively. For the CLA ELISA BTM the sensitivity and specificity were 41.4 per cent and 81.7 per cent, respectively, for the same goal of detection. The results suggest that BTM testing can be applied as a cost-effective first step for early detection of CAE and CLA infection.
Muri K.,Norwegian University of Life Sciences |
Leine N.,Vennisvegen 950 |
Valle P.S.,Norwegian University of Life Sciences |
Valle P.S.,Kontali Analyse AS
Animal | Year: 2016
The Norwegian dairy goat industry has largely succeeded in controlling caprine arthritis encephalitis (CAE), caseous lymphadenitis (CLA) and paratuberculosis through a voluntary disease eradication programme called Healthier Goats (HG). The aim of this study was to apply an on-farm welfare assessment protocol to assess the effects of HG on goat welfare. A total of 30 dairy goat farms were visited, of which 15 had completed disease eradication and 15 had not yet started. Three trained observers assessed the welfare on 10 farms each. The welfare assessment protocol comprised both resource-based and animal-based welfare measures, including a preliminary version of qualitative behavioural assessments with five prefixed terms. A total of 20 goats in each herd were randomly selected for observations of human-animal interactions and physical health. The latter included registering abnormalities of eyes, nostrils, ears, skin, lymph nodes, joints, udder, claws and body condition score. For individual-level data, robust clustered logistic regression analyses with farm as cluster variable were conducted to assess the association with disease eradication. Wilcoxon rank-sum tests were used for comparisons of herd-level data between the two groups. Goats with swollen joints (indicative of CAE) and enlarged lymph nodes (indicative of CLA) were registered on 53% and 93% of the non-HG farms, respectively, but on none of the HG farms. The only other health variables with significantly lower levels in HG herds were skin lesions (P=0.008) and damaged ears due to torn out ear tags (P<0.001). Goats on HG farms showed less fear of unknown humans (P=0.013), and the qualitative behavioural assessments indicated that the animals in these herds were calmer than in non-HG herds. Significantly more space and lower gas concentrations reflected the upgrading of buildings usually done on HG farms. In conclusion, HG has resulted in some welfare improvements beyond the elimination of infectious diseases. The protocol was considered a useful tool to evaluate the welfare consequences of a disease eradication programme. However, larger sample sizes would increase the reliability of prevalence estimates for less common conditions and increase the power to detect differences between the groups. Despite the obvious link between disease and suffering, this aspect is rarely taken into account in the evaluation of disease control programmes. We therefore propose that welfare assessment protocols should be applied to evaluate the merits of disease control or eradication programmes in terms of animal welfare. © The Animal Consortium 2015.
Aunsmo A.,Norwegian University of Life Sciences |
Krontveit R.,Norwegian University of Life Sciences |
Valle P.S.,Kontali Analyse AS |
Bohlin J.,Norwegian University of Life Sciences |
Bohlin J.,Norwegian Institute of Public Health
Aquaculture | Year: 2014
Several models for description of fish growth are commonly used in Atlantic salmon farming, including the specific growth rate (SGR), the thermal growth coefficient (TGC), the Ewos growth index (EGI), and average daily weight gain (ADG). In the present study, a subset of a commercial database containing information from 827 fish groups from the year-classes 2000-2005, produced along the Norwegian coastline, was used to validate these four growth models. A number of biotic and abiotic factors were fitted to the models of interest in order to evaluate model strengths and weaknesses and to identify additional factors whose inclusion may improve model performance. Preliminary analysis indicated non-linear relations; to account for this we applied generalized additive models (GAM) in regression analysis. Our findings indicate that ADG was strongly associated with harvest weight and was thus deemed unsuitable for describing growth in Atlantic salmon. SGR was also associated with fish size and biased towards small fish when fish of uneven stocking size were compared. The TGC, SGR and the EGI models were all moderately associated with harvest weight, and the same three models were more strongly associated with mean temperature and mean day-length. These models might therefore present bias when used to compare growth in varying environmental conditions. The EGI was considered the most robust model overall for predicting growth at different sizes exposed to variable abiotic exposure such as temperature and light. Finally, the study suggests that the robustness of growth models can be improved by accounting for non-linear effects on growth and including abiotic factors such as temperature, light, and latitude. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.