King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

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King Abdullah Petroleum Studies And Research Center | Date: 2016-08-04

A system and method for ex post counterfactual simulation to identify and estimate the non-members who could counterfactually be categorized in a specific group of interest, based on probabilistically matching nearest non-members to the group of interest.

Contestabile M.,King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center | Alajaji M.,King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
EVS 2016 - 29th International Electric Vehicle Symposium | Year: 2016

Governments around the world are seeking to expedite the electrification of passenger cars. Due to the particular policy approaches taken and market conditions, different mixes of BEVs and PHEVs and of rapid and slow public charging infrastructure are starting to emerge in different countries. The question is whether this will lead to a cost-effective use of the technology. In this study we explore the relative private cost of likely future EV and charging infrastructure mixes for two case studies, the UK and California, with the aim of formulating recommendations for EV and charging infrastructure policy that is robust under uncertainty.

Filippini M.,ETH Zurich | Filippini M.,University Svizzera Italiana | Hunt L.C.,University of Surrey | Hunt L.C.,King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
Energy Economics | Year: 2015

Energy efficiency policy is seen as a very important activity by almost all policy makers. In practical energy policy analysis, the typical indicator used as a proxy for energy efficiency is energy intensity. However, this simple indicator is not necessarily an accurate measure given changes in energy intensity are a function of changes in several factors as well as 'true' energy efficiency; hence, it is difficult to make conclusions for energy policy based upon simple energy intensity measures. Related to this, some published academic papers over the last few years have attempted to use empirical methods to measure the efficient use of energy based on the economic theory of production. However, these studies do not generally provide a systematic discussion of the theoretical basis nor the possible parametric empirical approaches that are available for estimating the level of energy efficiency. The objective of this paper, therefore, is to sketch out and explain from an economic perspective the theoretical framework as well as the empirical methods for measuring the level of energy efficiency. Additionally, in the second part of the paper, some of the empirical studies that have attempted to measure energy efficiency using such an economics approach are summarized and discussed. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.

Pierru A.,King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center | Roussanaly S.,Sintef | Sabathier J.,French Institute of Petroleum
Energy Policy | Year: 2013

This paper provides new empirical insights on the capital structure of project-financed LNG infrastructures and gas pipeline projects, by using data relating to projects whose financial close occurred between June 2004 and March 2011. Most results are consistent with the basic view of risk-averse funds suppliers. Especially, the projects located in risky countries and larger projects tend to exhibit lower debt ratios and less-concentrated equity ownerships. In addition, regasification projects appear to have a more diluted equity ownership. Methodological issues raised by the financing of these projects are also examined from a capital-budgeting perspective. In particular, the equity residual method, usually used by industrial practitioners to value these projects, should be adjusted. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Gasim A.A.,King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
Energy Policy | Year: 2015

Many industrialized countries are net importers of embodied energy and emissions, while many developing countries are net exporters. We examine the role of specialization in driving these trade patterns by conducting a spatial index decomposition analysis on the embodied energy in net exports for 41 economies. The results reveal that industrialized countries have generally offshored energy intensive production, which many developing countries specialize in. We find that specialization, on average, makes the biggest contribution, accounting for roughly 50% of a country's embodied energy in net exports. However, other factors, namely energy intensity and the trade balance, combine to make an equally important contribution. In summary, specialization, despite its significant role, is not the only cause of the embodied energy trade patterns observed between industrialized and developing countries. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

Napoli C.,King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center | Garcia-Tellez B.,King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
International Journal of Water Resources Development | Year: 2016

This article offers a framework for understanding how energy is used to meet water demand in countries. Specifically, the relationships between energy use and water scarcity, the location of renewable water resources, and aggregate water demand are explored. The article also examines how policy options such as water price reforms, agriculture subsidies and crop elimination may influence the energy use and energy intensity of water withdrawals. Conclusions suggest that while policy options exist, certain uncontrollable factors such as severe water scarcity or substantial freshwater abundance limit the ability of some countries to significantly improve the aggregate energy efficiency of water provision. © 2016 Taylor & Francis.

Napoli C.,King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center | Rioux B.,King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
International Journal of Water Resources Development | Year: 2016

This article constructs a cost calculator to estimate the economic competitiveness of solar-powered desalination in Saudi Arabia. Solar desalination is defined as a plant that obtains solar energy from a closed system. This is done to focus the investigation on desalination technologies, rather than the efficacy of replacing conventional energy sources with renewables in an integrated electricity grid. The results suggest that current options for solar-powered desalination are not cost-competitive compared to incumbent technologies in Saudi Arabia. The article offers insight into where costs must decrease before solar technologies are economically competitive in the country. © 2015 Taylor & Francis.

Howarth N.A.A.,University of Oxford | Howarth N.A.A.,King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center | Rosenow J.,University of Oxford
Energy Policy | Year: 2014

Much academic attention has been directed at analysing energy efficiency investments through the lens of 'behavioural failure'. These studies have challenged the neoclassical framing of regulation which emphasises the efficiency benefits of price based policy, underpinned by the notion of rational individual self-mastery. The increasing use of a regulatory ban on electric lamps in many countries is one of the most recent and high profile flash points in this dialectic of 'freedom-versus-the-state' in the public policy discourse. This paper interrogates this debate through a study of electric lamp diffusion in Germany. It is argued that neoclassical theory and equilibrium analysis is inadequate as a tool for policy analysis as it takes the formation of market institutions, such as existing regulations, for granted. Further still, it may be prone to encourage idealistic debates around such grand narratives which may in practice simply serve those who benefit most from the status quo. Instead we argue for an evolutionary approach which we suggest offers a more pragmatic framing tool which focuses on the formation of market institutions in light of shifting social norms and political goals-in our case, progress towards energy efficiency and environmental goals. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Pierru A.,King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center | Matar W.,King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
Energy Journal | Year: 2014

Since real oil price is positively correlated with real consumption and domesticincome in Saudi Arabia, a risk premium needs to be considered when assessingthe net present value of oil-related public investment projects. For projects generatingadditional oil exports, this risk premium quantifies the cost of increaseddependence on oil revenues. For projects transforming oil into products whoseprices are less correlated with the Saudi economy, it quantifies the benefit fromreducing the aggregate risk. The value of this risk premium depends on expectationsabout future consumption and oil price. By considering alternative assumptions,we show that over a one-year horizon this risk premium could rangebetween 1.3% and 5% of the expected oil-related cash flow, with higher premiafor longer planning horizons. We discuss the implications of these calculationsfor energy-related public projects in Saudi Arabia and, more generally, for publicdecision-making in resource-rich countries. © 2014 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.

Matar W.,King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
Energy Efficiency | Year: 2015

Energy efficiency in buildings has garnered significant attention in Saudi Arabia. This paper outlines the potential effects of higher residential efficiency on electricity load profiles in the Kingdom. It further presents the associated benefits that could have been realized by the local utilities in 2011. To perform the analysis, we designed an integrated methodology in which an engineering-based residential electricity demand model is used within an economic equilibrium framework. The modeling approach allows us to capture the physical interactions arising from higher efficiency and the structural changes that could occur in the economy beyond the end-consumers. Raising the average air-conditioner energy efficiency ratio (EER) to 11 British thermal unit (BTU)/(Wh) from its 2011 average would have saved 225,000 barrels/day of crude oil in electricity generation. Alternatively, increasing the share of insulated homes from 27 to 64 % would have allowed the power sector to lower its use of the fuel by 158,000 barrels/day. Combining both measures in a single simulation yields incremental yet not additive reductions. All alternative scenarios reduce costs to the utilities and improve the average thermal efficiency for the electricity generated. The studied efficiency options shift the load curve downward during the peak load segment when the least efficient turbines would be used. We additionally show how efficiency improvements in end-uses can affect the decisions of other sectors in the economy. © 2015 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

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