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Warsaw, Poland

Sobkowicz P.,KEN 94 140 | Sobkowicz A.,Warsaw University of Technology
Advances in Complex Systems | Year: 2012

We present an analysis of the properties of a social network, formed by users participating in one of the most popular Polish political discussion forums, during a period of two years. We find that despite communication motivated mostly by controversy and negative emotions, the resulting social network is remarkably similar to networks found in discussion boards based on similarity of views. All collected messages have been analyzed to determine their content type, author's political sympathies and emotion level. This has allowed us to discover almost complete stability of the political sympathies of the users writing comments during the studied period. Using the data on reader evaluation of the comments we present estimates of the political sympathies of the "silent majority" of forum readers and found that they follow closely the distribution of sympathies of comment authors. The data from the observations are used as the input for an agent based computer simulation model, reproducing many observed statistical characteristics of the forum. © 2012 World Scientific Publishing Company.

We present detailed analysis of the behavior of an agent based model of opinion formation, using a discrete variant of cusp catastrophe behavior of single agents. The agent opinion about a particular issue is determined by its information about the issue and its emotional arousal. It is possible that for agitated agents the same information would lead to different opinions. This results in a nontrivial individual opinion dynamics. The agents communicate via messages, which allows direct application of the model to ICT based communities. We study the dependence of the composition of an agent society on the range of interactions and the rate of emotional arousal. Despite the minimal number of adjustable parameters, the model reproduces several phenomena observed in real societies, for example nearly perfectly balanced results of some highly contested elections or the fact that minorities seldom perceive themselves to be a minority. © EDP Sciences, Società Italiana di Fisica, Springer-Verlag 2013

Sobkowicz P.,KEN 94 140
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications | Year: 2016

A common practice in many organizations is to pile the work on the best performers. It is easy to implement by the management and, despite the apparent injustice, appears to be working in many situations. In our work we present a simple agent based model, constructed to simulate this practice and to analyze conditions under which the overall efficiency of the organization (for example measured by the backlog of unresolved issues) breaks down, due to the cumulative effect of the individual overloads. The model confirms that the strategy mentioned above is, indeed, rational: it leads to better global results than an alternative one, using equal workload distribution among all workers. The presented analyses focus on the behavior of the organizations close to the limit of the maximum total throughput and provide results for the growth of the unprocessed backlog in several situations, as well as suggestions related to avoiding such buildup. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

We present results of an abstract, agent based model of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) approach, applied to a strongly polarized society, corresponding to the Polish political scene between 2005 and 2015. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities of comparable size (supporting the corresponding opinions) - which corresponds to the bipartisan split found in Poland. Spurred by the recent breakdown of this political duopoly, which occurred in 2015, we present a model extension that describes both the long term coexistence of the two opposing opinions and a rapid, transitory change due to the appearance of a third party alternative. We provide quantitative comparison of the model with the results of polls and elections in Poland, testing the assumptions related to the modeled processes and the parameters used in the simulations. It is shown, that when the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the political status quo may be unstable. The asymmetry of the emotions within the support bases of the two parties allows one of them to be 'invaded' by a newcomer third party very quickly, while the second remains immune to such invasion. © 2016 Pawel Sobkowicz. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

The paper presents an agent based simulation of opinion evolution, based on a nonlinear emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) individual dynamics, to an actual Internet discussion forum. The goal is to reproduce the results of two-year long observations and analyses of the user communication behavior and of the expressed opinions and emotions, via simulations using an agent based model. The model allowed to derive various characteristics of the forum, including the distribution of user activity and popularity (outdegree and indegree), the distribution of length of dialogs between the participants, their political sympathies and the emotional content and purpose of the comments. The parameters used in the model have intuitive meanings, and can be translated into psychological observables. © 2013 Pawel Sobkowicz.

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