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Reijniers J.,University of Antwerp | Davis S.,RMIT University | Begon M.,University of Liverpool | Heesterbeek J.A.P.,University Utrecht | And 3 more authors.
Ecology Letters | Year: 2012

A core concept of infectious disease epidemiology is the abundance threshold, below which an infection is unable to invade or persist. There have been contrasting theoretical predictions regarding the nature of this threshold for vector-borne diseases, but for infections with an invertebrate vector, it is common to assume a threshold defined by the ratio of vector and host abundances. Here, we show in contrast, both from field data and model simulations, that for plague (Yersinia pestis) in Kazakhstan, the invasion threshold quantity is based on the product of its host (Rhombomys opimus) and vector (mainly Xenopsylla spp.) abundances, resulting in a combined threshold curve with hyperbolic shape. This shape implies compensation between host and vector abundances in permitting infection, which has important implications for disease control. Realistic joint thresholds, supported by data, should promote improved understanding, prediction and management of disease occurrence in this and other vector-borne disease systems. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS. Source


Aikimbayev A.M.,kimbayevs Kazakh Scientific Center For Quarantine And Zoonotic Diseases | Bekenov J.Y.,Aktobe Plague Control Station | Meka-Mechenko T.V.,kimbayevs Kazakh Scientific Center For Quarantine And Zoonotic Diseases | Temiraliyeva G.A.,kimbayevs Kazakh Scientific Center For Quarantine And Zoonotic Diseases
NATO Science for Peace and Security Series A: Chemistry and Biology | Year: 2010

The Central Asian deserts' plague focus occupies vast zones of desert and semidesert in Central Asia and Kazakhstan. The differentiation of plague strains on virulence from the plague foci of Kazakhstan testifies to its high epidemic virulence. From 1990-2003, 23 cases of human plague were registered. From 2004 to 2007, no cases human plague were registered. The growth of human plague has been caused not only by an increase in epizootic activity of the natural foci but also by the crises of social, economic, and health protection conditions in the Republic of Kazakhstan during the period of Perestroika. The same conditions challenged the increase in human anthrax, tularaemia, and brucellosis during the same period. Annually, 70,000-100,000 people are vaccinated and revaccinated with live vaccine strain tularemia. Kazakhstan is not endemic for cholera; therefore, all initial cases of cholera were imported from places such as Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Turkey, and Indonesia. For epidemiologic supervision of anthrax, the cadastre of anthrax foci is transferred in electronic format using a Geographical Information System (GIS). For Kazakh samples, 12 unique MLVA subtypes (KZ-1 through KZ-12) were used. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Source

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