KanORS EMR

Greater Noida, India

KanORS EMR

Greater Noida, India
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Labriet M.,Eneris Environment Energy Consultants | Joshi S.R.,Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne | Vielle M.,Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne | Holden P.B.,Open University Milton Keynes | And 4 more authors.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change | Year: 2015

The energy sector is not only a major contributor to greenhouse gases, it is also vulnerable to climate change and will have to adapt to future climate conditions. The objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of changes in future temperatures on the heating and cooling services of buildings and the resulting energy and macro-economic effects at global and regional levels. For this purpose, the techno-economic TIAM-WORLD (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) and the general equilibrium GEMINI-E3 (General Equilibrium Model of International-National Interactions between Economy, Energy and Environment) models are coupled with a climate model, PLASIM-ENTS (Planet-Simulator- Efficient Numerical Terrestrial Scheme). The key results are as follows. At the global level, the climate feedback induced by adaptation of the energy system to heating and cooling is found to be insignificant, partly because heating and cooling-induced changes compensate and partly because they represent a limited share of total final energy consumption. However, significant changes are observed at regional levels, more particularly in terms of additional power capacity required to satisfy additional cooling services, resulting in increases in electricity prices. In terms of macro-economic impacts, welfare gains and losses are associated more with changes in energy exports and imports than with changes in energy consumption for heating and cooling. The rebound effect appears to be non-negligible. To conclude, the coupling of models of different nature was successful and showed that the energy and economic impacts of climate change on heating and cooling remain small at the global level, but changes in energy needs will be visible at more local scale. © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.


Kober T.,Energy Research Center of the Netherlands | Falzon J.,Energy Research Center of the Netherlands | van der Zwaan B.,Energy Research Center of the Netherlands | van der Zwaan B.,University of Amsterdam | And 4 more authors.
Energy Economics | Year: 2016

In this paper we investigate energy supply investment requirements in Latin America until 2050 through a multi-model approach as jointly applied in the CLIMACAP-LAMP research project. We compare a business-as-usual scenario needed to satisfy anticipated future energy demand with a set of scenarios that aim to significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the region. We find that more than a doubling of annual investments, in absolute terms, occurs in the business-as-usual scenario between 2010 and 2050, while investments may treble over the same time horizon when climate policies are introduced. Investment costs as share of GDP, however, decline over time in the business-as-usual scenario as well as the climate policy scenarios, as a result of the fast economic growth of the region. In the business-as-usual scenario, cumulative investments of 1.4 trillion US$ are anticipated between 2010 and 2050 in electricity supply. These investments increase when additional climate policies are introduced: under a carbon tax of 50 $/tCO2e in 2020 growing with a rate of 4%/yr, an additional 0.6 trillion US$ (+45%) of cumulative investment is needed. Climate control measures lead to increased investment in low-carbon electricity technologies, primarily based on wind and solar resources, as well as CCS applied to fossil fuels and biomass. Our analysis suggests that, in comparison to the business-as-usual case, an average additional 21 billion US$/yr of electricity supply investment is required in Latin America until 2050 under a climate policy aiming at 2°C climate stabilisation. Conversely, there is a disinvestment in fossil fuel extraction and transformation. For oil production, a growth to 130 billion US$ annual investment by 2050 is anticipated in a business-as-usual scenario. Ambitious climate policy reduces this to 28 billion US$. Mobilising the necessary additional investment capital, in particular for low-carbon energy technologies, will be a challenge. Suitable frameworks and enabling environments for a scale-up of public and private investment will be critical to help reach the required low-carbon energy deployment levels. © 2016 The Authors.


Sugiyama M.,Chiyoda Corporation | Akashi O.,Musashino University | Wada K.,Japan Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth | Kanudia A.,KanORS EMR | And 2 more authors.
Climatic Change | Year: 2014

Energy efficiency is one of the main options for mitigating climate change. An accurate representation of various mechanisms of energy efficiency is vital for the assessment of its realistic potential. Results of a questionnaire show that the EMF27 models collectively represent known channels of energy efficiency reasonably well, addressing issues of energy efficiency barriers and rebound effects. The majority of models, including general equilibrium models, have an explicit end-use representation for the transportation sector. All participating partial equilibrium models have some capability of reflecting the actual market behavior of consumers and firms. The EMF27 results show that energy intensity declines faster under climate policy than under a baseline scenario. With a climate policy roughly consistent with a global warming of two degrees, the median annual improvement rate of energy intensity for 2010-2030 reaches 2.3 % per year [with a full model range of 1.3-2.9 %/yr], much faster than the historical rate of 1.3 % per year. The improvement rate increases further if technology is constrained. The results suggest that the target of the United Nations' "Sustainable Energy for All" initiative is consistent with the 2-degree climate change target, as long as there are no technology constraints. The rate of energy intensity decline varies significantly across models, with larger variations at the regional and sectoral levels. Decomposition of the transportation sector down to a service level for a subset of models reveals that to achieve energy efficiency, a general equilibrium model tends to reduce service demands while partial equilibrium models favor technical substitution. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.


Kanudia A.,KanORS EMR | Gerboni R.,Polytechnic University of Turin | Loulou R.,KANLO sarl | Gargiulo M.,E4SMA srl | And 5 more authors.
International Journal of Energy Sector Management | Year: 2013

Purpose: This article is based on the REACCESS research project, sponsored by the European Commission, with the objectives of evaluating the technical, economic, and environmental aspects of present and future energy corridors between the European countries (EU27) and their main energy suppliers. GCC countries have an important role to play given their role in EU energy supply and in greenhouse gas emissions. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach: A single energy model was built by hard-linking the TIMES integrated assessment model (TIAM-World), the Pan European TIMES model (PET), and the RECOR model (REaccess CORridors), including more than 1,000 possible energy corridors supplying the European countries. Another major methodology advance was to create a hybrid objective function, combining the usual cost objective and a metric representing the supply risk incurred by EU27. The risk component was constructed via a novel approach that aggregates the elemental risk parameters of each corridor using a Min-Max function. Four contrasted scenarios were assessed, based on security and climate objectives. Findings: Among the many results, it appears that a large reduction of the supply risk may be achieved at a very modest increase of the total energy system cost for EU27. Cross-effects of climate mitigation and security objectives are also observed. Due to the diversification requirement, the contribution of GCC countries to EU energy imports increases under risk scenario. Sensitivity analyses show that the European energy system seems unable to reduce the market shares of fossil fuels import from MENA countries, including GCC countries, much below the reference case, proving the strong dependency of EU27 energy system from these countries. However, total fossil fuels imports, as well as total energy consumed, are decreased under the risk adverse scenarios. Originality/value: Methodological developments, as described above, result in an advanced tool to assess how to increase the "energy system security", by reducing the concentration of supply countries, diversifying import sources but also reducing the energy dependence at the end-use side. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.


Wright E.,Economy Energy | Kanudia A.,KanORS EMR
Lecture Notes in Energy | Year: 2015

This chapter describes highly detailed modeling of existing coal-fired units in the US power sector within the FACETS TIMES model. Such detailed modeling is necessary wherever the existing stock plays a key role in determining policy cost. The soon-to-be-implemented Mercury and Air Toxics (MATS) regulation imposes unit-level emissions rate constraints on nearly 1100 coal-fired units, forcing retrofit or retire decisions at a large portion of the existing fleet. Covered emissions and retrofit costs depend in a detailed way on unit configuration and coal quality, forcing development of new techniques to handle the enormous expansion in model size and detail. These retrofit/retire decisions are being made under uncertainty about future carbon policies for the sector. FACETS was used to compare "foresight" scenarios in which the model could "see" both the MATS requirements and a power sector clean energy standard (CES) to "myopic" scenarios in which the MATS decisions made in the Reference scenario are fixed in the model solution up through the MATS compliance window in model year 2018, after which the model is free to begin responding to the CES. The overall national costs of myopia were found to be small, except when the carbon policy ramps up very quickly after air quality compliance decisions are made, but significant regional heterogeneity exists. Stranded asset costs from retrofitted units that must be underutilized or abandoned later range from $2 to 8 billion in the myopic cases. Substantially fewer retrofits are undertaken in the foresight cases, reducing stranded asset costs in some regions by up to 100 %. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015.


Wright E.,Economy Energy | Kanudia A.,KanORS EMR
Energy Economics | Year: 2016

This paper presents results from a "modeler's choice" suite of runs that model the US Environmental Protection Agency's proposed Clean Power Plan (CPP) regulating carbon dioxide emissions from existing power plants under Section 111d of the Clean Air Act more closely than does the core EMF 31 Technology Performance Standard (TPS) case. While the TPS case imposed a national emissions rate standard for the power sector, the CPP imposes its budgets at the state level and provides states a great deal of flexibility in designing their implementation approaches. States may convert their CPP rate targets to a mass basis, and they may join with other states in multi-state trading plans. Under the proposed rule, EPA also left open the question of how new gas units were to be treated under the CPP. This design flexibility leads to a range of possible outcomes when it comes to the impacts of the proposed CPP on emissions, policy costs, electricity generation patterns, and gas markets. We analyzed 40 CPP scenarios in the Framework for Analysis of Climate-Energy-Technology Systems (FACETS), permuting these three design dimensions along with energy efficiency and low shale resource scenarios.Many designs have significantly higher emissions than EPA's original June 2014 design, while others deliver greater emissions reductions. In particular, the EMF TPS is closest to one of the more stringent possible designs. We observed substantial potential for emissions leakage when generation is able to move from covered to uncovered sources or from lower to higher rate states. Movement of generation is stimulated by the very different incentives that are set up across states by the differences in state rates. We discuss the features in each design that drive emissions impacts along with measures that can be taken to mitigate leakage risks. Since the EMF 31 study was completed, EPA has released the final CPP rule, which differs from the proposed rule in many important respects. We discuss the impact of those changes on the leakage potential observed here.Policy impacts on the gas market are found to be highly sensitive to the levels of energy efficiency (EE) achieved. Without EE, the CPP boosts gas production and increases prices by stimulating a shift from coal to gas. However, when the EE levels projected by EPA are achieved as part of state compliance approaches, gas production and price fall below no-policy levels by the mid-2020s. © 2016.


Wright E.,Economy Energy | Kanudia A.,KanORS EMR
Energy Economics | Year: 2014

This paper presents a new US multi-region energy systems model built in the TIMES modeling system: the Framework for Analysis of Climate-Energy-Technology Systems (FACETS). The model is designed to analyze energy technology options and policy scenarios across sectors and regions, including the increasingly important interactions between state, regional, and federal policies. FACETS contains a realistic representation of key infrastructure, while retaining the flexibility to explore deep carbon emission reductions and other large changes from the baseline energy system. It is built using a unique, flexible multi-region approach so that the geographic relationships that drive the costs of energy technology transitions can be captured. Significant enhancements to the Veda-TIMES system and a GIS-results viewer permit the massive data handling needed to represent these relationships and interpret results. An analysis of a federal clean energy standard (CES) and investment in the transmission grid is presented. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.


Labriet M.,Eneris Environment Energy Consultants | Kanudia A.,KanORS EMR | Loulou R.,KanLo Consultants
Energy Economics | Year: 2012

This paper explores the impacts of long-term technology and climate uncertainties on the optimal evolution of the World energy system. Stochastic programming with the TIAM-World model is used for a parametric analysis of hedging strategies, varying the probabilities associated to each of two contrasted technology outlooks. The parametric analysis constitutes an original supplement to the computation of hedging strategies by identifying technologies that are robust under a broad range of probabilities of the two technology outlooks. Natural gas appears to be one of the most appealing robust options in an uncertain technological context, especially in China, given its relatively low emissions and the low capital cost of associated technologies. Natural gas and some other options are in fact considered as "super-hedging" actions, penetrating more in the hedging solution than in any of the deterministic scenarios. Nuclear power and CCS use are less robust: they depend much more on either the level of the climate target or the probabilities of the technology outlooks. The analysis also shows that technological uncertainty has a greater impact under milder climate targets than under more severe ones. Future research might consider a larger set of possible technology outlooks, as well as specific analyses focused on key characteristics of low-carbon technologies. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.


Gerboni R.,Polytechnic University of Turin | Grosso D.,Polytechnic University of Turin | Lavagno E.,Polytechnic University of Turin | Kanudia A.,KanORS EMR | Tosato G.,ASATREM
Lecture Notes in Energy | Year: 2015

Energy modelling can provide a knowledge basis for tackling the security of energy supply issue at different geographical levels. This chapter presents an application of the coupling of the global TIMES Integrated Assessment Model and of the Pan European TIMES model through a series of trade links described and characterised in the REACCESS corridor model. The coupling was developed during the EU FP7 REACCESS project and was further improved and updated during a follow-up phase. The application focuses on the analysis of security of supply to Europe via energy corridors. A new methodology for the assessment of energy security, addressing the risk associated to each supply, is presented together with a scenario analysis related to some of the most populated of the EU’s Member States and to the European Union as a whole. The scenario analysis results show a sample of the possible assessments that stakeholders might be willing to rely on to address the effects of communitarian policies and targets: the preformed analysis, for example, unveils that a risk reduction at communitarian level may not univocally be translated into a benefit for individual Member States. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015.


Seixas J.,New University of Lisbon | Simoes S.,New University of Lisbon | Dias L.,New University of Lisbon | Kanudia A.,KanORS EMR | And 2 more authors.
Energy Policy | Year: 2015

Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered alternatives to internal combustion engines due to their energy efficiency and contribution to CO2 mitigation. The adoption of EVs depends on consumer preferences, including cost, social status and driving habits, although it is agreed that current and expected costs play a major role. We use a partial equilibrium model that minimizes total energy system costs to assess whether EVs can be a cost-effective option for the consumers of each EU27 member state up to 2050, focusing on the impact of different vehicle investment costs and CO2 mitigation targets. We found that for an EU-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction cap of 40% and 70% by 2050 vis-à-vis 1990 emissions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are cost-effective in the EU only by 2030 and only if their costs are 30% lower than currently expected. At the EU level, vehicle costs and the capability to deliver both short- and long-distance mobility are the main drivers of BEV deployment. Other drivers include each state's national mobility patterns and the cost-effectiveness of alternative mitigation options, both in the transport sector, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) or biofuels, and in other sectors, such as renewable electricity. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

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