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Lucas P.L.,PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency | Nielsen J.,PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency | Calvin K.,Joint Global Change Research Institute PNNL | McCollum D.L.,International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis | And 7 more authors.
Energy Policy | Year: 2015

Although Africa's share in the global energy system is only small today, ongoing population growth and economic development imply that this can change significantly. Here, we discuss long-term energy-system developments in Africa using results of a recent model inter-comparison study on global climate policy. We focus on Africa's role in the wider global energy system and in global climate mitigation. The results show a considerable spread in model outcomes, emphasizing the large uncertainty regarding Africa's energy future. Without climate policy, Africa's share in global energy-related CO2 emissions is projected to increase to 3-23% by 2100. Emissions become significant on a global scale only after 2050. In none of the model projections the international ambition to provide universal modern energy access by 2030 is achieved. Furthermore, although the continent is currently a large net exporter of oil and natural gas, towards 2050 the model projections emphasize that Africa needs most of its resources for its rapidly growing domestic demand. However, the projected rapid expansion of their energy system also implies that Africa gains importance in global mitigation action. An important challenge is to align the increasing investments in the energy system with climate policy and potential revenues from international carbon trading. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

Calvin K.,Joint Global Change Research Institute PNNL | Pachauri S.,International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis | De Cian E.,Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei | Mouratiadou I.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Climatic Change | Year: 2013

Today Africa is a small emitter, but it has a large and faster-than-average growing population and per capita income that could drive future energy demand and, if unconstrained, emissions. This paper uses a multi-model comparison to characterize the potential future energy development for Continental and Sub-Saharan Africa under different assumptions about population and income. Our results suggest that population and economic growth rates will strongly influence Africa's future energy use and emissions. We show that affluence is only one face of the medal and the range of future emissions is also contingent on technological and political factors. Higher energy intensity improvements occur when Africa grows faster. In contrast, climate intensity varies less with economic growth and it is mostly driven by climate policy. African emissions could account for between 5 % and 20 % of global emissions, with Sub-Saharan Africa contributing between 4 % and 10 % of world emissions in 2100. In all scenarios considered, affluence levels remain low until the middle of the century, suggesting that the population could remain dependent on traditional bioenergy to meet most residential energy needs. Although the share of electricity in final energy, electric capacity and electricity use per capita all rise with income, even by mid-century they do not reach levels observed in developed countries today. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Calvin K.,Joint Global Change Research Institute PNNL | Wise M.,Joint Global Change Research Institute PNNL | Clarke L.,Joint Global Change Research Institute PNNL | Edmonds J.,Joint Global Change Research Institute PNNL | And 2 more authors.
Climatic Change | Year: 2013

Most research on future climate change discusses mitigation and impacts/adaptation separately. However, mitigation will have implications for impacts and adaptation. Similarly, impacts and adaptation will affect mitigation. This paper begins to explore these two veins of research simultaneously using an integrated assessment model. We begin by discussing the types of interactions one might expect by impact sector. Then, we develop a numerical experiment in the agriculture sector to illustrate the importance of considering mitigation, impacts, and adaptation at the same time. In our experiment, we find that climate change can reduce crop yields, resulting in an expansion of cropland to feed a growing population and a reduction in bioenergy production. These two effects, in combination, result in an increase in the cost of mitigation. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

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