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Cocco M.,Istituto Nationale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | Hainzl S.,Helmholtz Center Potsdam | Catalli F.,Istituto Nationale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | Enescu B.,Helmholtz Center Potsdam | And 3 more authors.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

We use the Dieterich (1994) physics-based approach to simulate the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity caused by stress changes applied to an infinite population of nucleating patches modeled through a rate- and state-dependent friction law. According to this model, seismicity rate changes depend on the amplitude of stress perturbation, the physical constitutive properties of faults (represented by the parameter Aσ), the stressing rate, and the background seismicity rate of the study area. In order to apply this model in a predictive manner, we need to understand the impact of physical model parameters and the correlations between them. First, we discuss different definitions of the reference seismicity rate and show their impact on the computed rate of earthquake production for the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence as a case study. Furthermore, we demonstrate that all model parameters are strongly correlated for physical and statistical reasons. We discuss this correlation, emphasizing that the estimations of the background seismicity rate, stressing rate, and Aσ are strongly correlated to reproduce the observed aftershock productivity. Our analytically derived relation demonstrates the impact of these model parameters on the Omori-like aftershock decay: the c value and the productivity of the Omori law, implying a p value smaller than or equal to 1. Finally, we discuss an optimal strategy to constrain model parameters for near-real-time forecasts. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union. Source

Monecke T.,Colorado School of Mines | Petersen S.,Leibniz Institute of Marine Science | Hannington M.D.,University of Ottawa | Anzidei M.,Istituto Nationale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | And 6 more authors.
Bulletin of Volcanology

Explosions of hot water, steam, and gas are common periodic events of subaerial geothermal systems. These highly destructive events may cause loss of life and substantial damage to infrastructure, especially in densely populated areas and where geothermal systems are actively exploited for energy. We report on the occurrence of a large number of explosion craters associated with the offshore venting of gas and thermal waters at the volcanic island of Panarea, Italy, demonstrating that violent explosions similar to those observed on land also are common in the shallow submarine environment. With diameters ranging from 5 to over 100 m, the observed circular seafloor depressions record a history of major gas explosions caused by frequent perturbation of the submarine geothermal system over the past 10,000 years. Estimates of the total gas flux indicate that the Panarea geothermal system released over 70 Mt of CO 2 over this period of time, suggesting that CO 2 venting at submerged arc volcanoes contributes significantly to the global atmospheric budget of this greenhouse gas. The findings at Panarea highlight that shallow submarine gas explosions represent a previously unrecognized volcanic hazard around populated volcanic islands that needs to be taken into account in the development of risk management strategies. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Source

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