Santa Bárbara d'Oeste, Brazil
Santa Bárbara d'Oeste, Brazil

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da Silva S.C.,Federal University of Amazonas | de Oliveira A.D.,Federal University of Lavras | Junior L.M.C.,Intituto Agronomico do Parana IAPAR | de Rezende J.L.P.,Federal University of Lavras
Cerne | Year: 2011

Cerrado vegetation is Brazil's second largest biome, comprising about 388 municipalities in Minas Gerais state alone and serving as an important source of natural resources. A large share of the wood charcoal produced in Minas Gerais is sourced from Cerrado vegetation. The objective of this work is to assess the economic viability of Cerrado vegetation management for wood charcoal production, under conditions of risk. The study site is a fragment of Cerrado subjected to fi ve levels of intervention as to basal area removal. For risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method was applied, using charcoal price, interest rate and land value as input variables, and using Net Present Value as output variable over an infi nite planning horizon. It was concluded that introducing risk in the economic analysis of the various Cerrado management regimes helped provide additional information to that obtained by deterministic analysis, improving understanding and ensuring safety in decision-making about the economic viability of such regimes. For all treatments, the probability of VPL being negative increases with increasing cutting cycle lengths. For all treatments, the optimal cutting cycle is ten years. Treatments where a larger volume of wood was removed proved less prone to risks of economic inviability since they secure more revenue than treatments where less wood was removed.


Coelho Junior L.M.,Intituto Agronomico do Parana IAPAR | de Rezende J.L.P.,Federal University of Lavras | Avila E.S.,Federal University of Säo João del Rei | de Oliveira A.D.,Federal University of Säo João del Rei
Cerne | Year: 2010

This work analyzed the Brazilian cellulose industry concentration level between 1998 and 2007, focusing on the sector's main performance indicators. The necessary data was collected from BRACELPA's Statistical Reports during the same period. The concentration level was determined according to the following indexes: Concentration Ratio (CR); Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI); Theil's Entropy Index (E); and the Gini Coefficient (G). The primary conclusions were that the CR(4), CR(8), HHI, and Theil's indexes presented high figures in spite of occasional fluctuations. The inequality of the industry, as measured by the Gini coefficient, was considered high, confirming the initial hypothesis of the work.


de Oliveira A.D.,Federal University of Lavras | Bernardes F.F.,Vallourec e Mannesmann Florestal Ltda | de Rezende J.L.P.,Federal University of Lavras | de Mello J.M.,Federal University of Lavras | And 2 more authors.
Cerne | Year: 2011

The objective of this study is to estimate for several importing countries of fi berboard panels the income elasticities and price elasticities of total import demand and also the own-price and cross-price elasticities of demand for fi berboard panels, differentiated by country of origin. Time series data were used referring to the trade flow of the world's largest exporters and importers of fi berboard panels. The demand model being used treats products as imperfect substitutes. It was concluded that in Germany, China and United Kingdom the total import demand for fi berboard panels was more sensitive to variations in price than in income, whereas in other importing countries the reverse happened. The own-price elasticity of demand for fi berboard panels, differentiated by country of origin, was higher than one in almost all markets, except in Germany and United Kingdom. The negative cross-price elasticities suggest that fi berboard panels imported from other exporting countries are complementary products.


Coelho Junior L.M.,Intituto Agronomico do Parana IAPAR | de Oliveira A.D.,Federal University of Lavras | de Mello J.M.,Federal University of Lavras | de Rezende J.L.P.,Federal University of Lavras
Cerne | Year: 2011

Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is infl uenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL). Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand), the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration) by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making.

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