News Article | May 8, 2017
« Porsche Digital, Inc. opens location in Silicon Valley | Main | IAV develops new close-coupled diesel exhaust gas aftertreatment system for improved emissions reduction » A new study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) estimates heavy fuel oil (HFO) use, HFO carriage, the use and carriage of other fuels, black carbon (BC) emissions, and emissions of other air and climate pollutants for the year 2015, with projections to 2020 and 2025. According to the report, potentially large increases in BC emissions may occur in the Arctic, further exacerbating warming, if ships are diverted from the Panama and Suez canals to take advantage of shorter routes to and from Asia, Europe, and North America. If even a small percentage (1%–2%) of large cargo vessels are diverted from the Panama and Suez Canals through the Arctic over the next decade, BC emissions could rise significantly—jumping up to 46% from 2015 to 2025. Dwindling sea ice is opening new shipping routes through the Arctic and shipping activity in the Arctic is expected to rise as oil and gas development increases and as ships take advantage of shorter trans-Arctic routes from Asia to Europe and North America. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, 2014a) estimates that 75% of Arctic sea ice volume has been lost since the 1980s. The Northwest Passage (NWP) and Northern Sea Route (NSR) … are the two most economically advantageous routes for trans-Arctic shipping. The trip between Shanghai and Europe is shortened by about a third when the NSR is taken in lieu of the traditional route through the Suez Canal. Similarly, the trip from Shanghai to New York City also is shortened by a third when taking the NWP instead of the path through the Panama Canal. Shorter distances result in fuel, labor, and time savings. The ICCT report uses exactEarth satellite Automatic Identification System (AIS) data along with ship characteristic data from IHS Fairplay to examine shipping in three Arctic regions: (1) the Geographic Arctic (above 58.95 ˚N); (2) the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Arctic as defined in the Polar Code; and (3) the US Arctic, defined as the portion of the US exclusive economic zone (EEZ) within the IMO Arctic. The report found that shipping within the Arctic as defined by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) consumed an estimated 436,000 tonnes of fuel and emitted 193 tonnes of black carbon in 2015. This is almost quadruple the most recent (2012, by DNV) estimate. HFO was the most consumed marine fuel in the Arctic in 2015. In the IMO Arctic, HFO represented nearly 57% of the nearly half million tonnes (t) of fuel consumed by ships, followed by distillate (43%); almost no liquefied natural gas (LNG) was consumed in this area. General cargo vessels consumed the most HFO in the IMO Arctic, using 66,000 t, followed by oil tankers (43,000 t), and cruise ships (25,000 t). HFO also dominated fuel carriage, in tonnes, and fuel transport, in tonne-nautical miles (t-nm) in the Arctic in 2015. Although only 42% of ships in the IMO Arctic operated on HFO in 2015, these ships accounted for 76% of fuel carried and 56% of fuel transported in this region. Specifically, bulk carriers, container ships, oil tankers, general cargo vessels, and fishing vessels dominated HFO carriage and transport in the IMO Arctic, together accounting for more than 75% of HFO carried and transported in the IMO Arctic in 2015. Considering the quantity of fuel these vessels carry on board and the distances they travel each year, these ships may pose a higher risk for HFO spills than others. the ICCT team concluded. Among the other key findings of the report: Some of the emissions growth between 2012 and 2015 can be attributed to increased vessel traffic, with satellites detecting roughly double the number of ship miles traveled in 2015 compared to 2012. Emissions from ships operating in areas that were previously ice locked and inaccessible to marine traffic can be clearly seen in 2015, particularly on the Northern Sea Route off of Russia’s coast. Estimates of HFO use and BC emissions is heavily dependent upon the definition of the Arctic. IMO’s narrow definition of the Arctic, which excludes significant coastal areas around Iceland and Norway, excludes 85% of ship traffic, 90% of fuel use, and 85% of BC emissions from shipping in the Geographic Arctic north of 59 degrees latitude. By 2025, emissions of CO and black carbon by ships in the Arctic are projected to increase 5% to 50%, depending upon the level of ship diversions from the Panama and Suez canals through the Arctic as well as the geographic definition of the Arctic used. While less than half of the ships in the Arctic use HFO, it represents 75% of the fuel onboard ships in the Arctic because larger ships, with larger fuel tanks, tend to use HFO instead of cleaner distillate fuels. The majority of HFO carriage in the Geographic Arctic is attributable to ships flagged to non-Arctic states with major ship registries like Panama, the Marshall Islands, Liberia, Malta, and the Bahamas. This points to the need for an international standard on HFO use and carriage at the IMO, the authors said. The authors suggested that several policy alternatives could reduce the dual risks of air pollution and fuel oil spills from ships in the Arctic, including regional emission control policies; restricting the use of HFO, the carriage of HFO, or both; and regulating BC emissions regionally or globally. Explicitly restricting the use and carriage of HFO in the Arctic would greatly reduce the risks of HFO oil spills and would also reduce air pollution, including BC, provided ships operate on distillate, LNG, or other alternative fuels. An even stronger approach would be to prohibit the use of petroleum-based fuels (e.g., HFO and distillate), which would require a complete shift to cleaner fuels (e.g., LNG, fuel cells), albeit at substantial cost to existing fleets. Finally, Arctic BC emissions could be addressed through regulations that either establish new emission standards for marine engines, require the use of low- or zero-BC fuels, or mandate the use of BC reduction devices such as diesel particulate filters. Such a policy also may encourage a shift toward fuels that are less damaging than HFO when spilled. … Policies could be implemented at the global, regional, national, or subnational scales. Consensus policies that apply specifically to the Arctic region could be effective because ships registered to Arctic states, particularly Russia, account for the majority of HFO use, carriage, and BC emissions in the Arctic. However, because the diversion of ships from traditional trade routes in favor of trans-Arctic routes is likely as the Arctic becomes ice-free for longer periods, policies that apply to the global fleet, or ships intending to sail in the Arctic, are more attractive. Global policies are also desirable given that emissions of BC outside of the IMO Arctic can be, and are, transported northward. Thus, global policies that prohibit the use and carriage of HFO and reduce BC from marine engines will help ensure that the impacts on the Arctic environment from ships are meaningfully reduced.
News Article | May 15, 2017
Of these markets, they found vehicles emitted 13.2 million tons of nitrogen oxide under real-world driving conditions, which is 4.6 million tons more than the 8.6 million tons expected from vehicles' performance under official laboratory tests. Chris Malley, from the SEI, University of York, said: "This study shows that excess diesel nitrogen oxide emissions effect crop yields and a variety of human health issues. We estimate that implementing Next Generation standards could reduce crop production loss by 1-2% for Chinese wheat, Chinese maize, and Brazilian soy, and result in an additional four million tonnes of crop production globally." Nitrogen oxide is a key contributor to outdoor air pollution. Long-term exposure to these pollutants is linked to a range of adverse health outcomes, including disability and reduced life expectancy due to stroke, heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lung cancer. Josh Miller, researcher at the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), said: "Heavy-duty vehicles, such as commercial trucks and buses, were by far the largest contributor worldwide, accounting for 76% of the total excess gas emissions. "Five of the 11 markets that we looked at, Brazil, China, the EU, India, and the US, produced 90% of that. "For light-duty vehicles, such as passenger cars, trucks, and vans, the European Union produced nearly 70% of the excess diesel nitrogen oxide emissions." The study estimates that excess diesel vehicle NOx emissions in 2015 were also linked to approximately 38,000 premature deaths worldwide - mostly in the European Union, China, and India. Susan Anenberg, co-Founder of Environmental Health Analytics, LLC, said: "The consequences of excess diesel NOx emissions for public health are striking. In Europe, the ozone mortality burden each year would be 10% lower if diesel vehicle nitrogen oxide emissions were in line with certification limits." At a global level, the study estimates that the impact of all real-world diesel nitrogen oxide emissions will grow to 183,600 early deaths in 2040, unless something is done to reduce it. In some countries, implementing the most stringent standards - already in place elsewhere - could substantially improve the situation, according to the researchers. Explore further: Nearly 30 mn diesel cars on EU roads over emissions limit: study More information: Impact of excess diesel emissions on premature mortality, Nature (2017). DOI: 10.1038/nature22086
News Article | May 16, 2017
Real-world nitrogen oxide emissions from diesel vehicles are up to 50% higher than the estimates that result from laboratory testing, according to a new paper published in the journal Nature. The work, which was quite comprehensive, investigated 11 top vehicle markets, which together represented over 80% of new diesel vehicle sales in the year 2015. Amongst these markets, the researchers found that diesel vehicles emitted around 13.2 million tons of nitrogen oxide under real-world conditions — roughly 4.6 million tons of emissions more than official laboratory tests estimate (~8.6 million tons). The researchers involved in the work were spread throughout the International Council on Clean Transportation and Environmental Health Analytics, the University of York’s Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), the University of Colorado, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. SEI researcher Chris Malley commented on the study: “This study shows that excess diesel nitrogen oxide emissions affect crop yields and a variety of human health issues. We estimate that implementing Next Generation standards could reduce crop production loss by 1-2% for Chinese wheat, Chinese maize, and Brazilian soy, and result in an additional 4 million tonnes of crop production globally.” The press release provides more: “The study estimates that excess diesel vehicle nitrogen oxide emissions in 2015 were also linked to approximately 38,000 premature deaths worldwide — mostly in the European Union, China, and India. … At a global level, the study estimates that the impact of all real-world diesel nitrogen oxide emissions will grow to 183,600 early deaths in 2040, unless something is done to reduce it. In some countries, implementing the most stringent standards — already in place elsewhere — could substantially improve the situation, according to the researchers.” With regard to the vehicle types in question (that emitted the most nitrogen oxide), there are no surprises there. Josh Miller of the the International Council on Clean Transportation commented: “Heavy-duty vehicles, such as commercial trucks and buses, were by far the largest contributor worldwide, accounting for 76% of the total excess gas emissions. 5 of the 11 markets that we looked at, Brazil, China, the EU, India, and the US, produced 90% of that. For light-duty vehicles, such as passenger cars, trucks, and vans, the European Union produced nearly 70% of the excess diesel nitrogen oxide emissions.” About what you’d expect. You’d think that at some point all of the research and negative PR surrounding diesel vehicles would lead to a change in regulations in the European Union, wouldn’t you? Check out our new 93-page EV report. Join us for an upcoming Cleantech Revolution Tour conference! Keep up to date with all the hottest cleantech news by subscribing to our (free) cleantech daily newsletter or weekly newsletter, or keep an eye on sector-specific news by getting our (also free) solar energy newsletter, electric vehicle newsletter, or wind energy newsletter.
News Article | May 15, 2017
« Ryder San Francisco fueling facility offers 100% renewable diesel | Main | DOE: 23.5% of vehicles sold in Norway in 2016 were plug-ins; highest market penetration in Europe » A new international study has found that laboratory tests of nitrogen oxide emissions from diesel vehicles significantly underestimate the real-world emissions by as much as 50%. A paper on the work is published in the journal Nature. The research, led by the International Council on Clean Transportation and Environmental Health Analytics, LLC., in collaboration with scientists at the University of York’s Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI); University of Colorado; and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, assessed 30 studies of vehicle emissions under real-world driving conditions in 11 major vehicle markets representing 80% of new diesel vehicle sales in 2015. Those markets include Australia; Brazil; Canada; China; the European Union; India; Japan; Mexico; Russia; South Korea; and the United States. Of these markets, they found vehicles emitted 13.2 million tons of NO under real-world driving conditions—4.6 million tons more than the 8.6 million tons expected from vehicles’ performance under official laboratory tests. Heavy-duty vehicles, such as commercial trucks and buses, were by far the largest contributor worldwide, accounting for 76% of the total excess gas emissions. Five of the 11 markets that we looked at, Brazil, China, the EU, India, and the US, produced 90% of that. For light-duty vehicles, such as passenger cars, trucks, and vans, the European Union produced nearly 70% of the excess diesel nitrogen oxide emissions. —Josh Miller, researcher at the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) Daven Henze, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at CU Boulder, used computer modeling and NASA satellite data to simulate how particulate matter and ozone levels are, and will be, impacted by excess NOx levels in specific locations. The team then computed the impacts on health, crops and climate. Chris Malley, from the SEI, University of York, said that the study showed that excess diesel nitrogen oxide emissions effect crop yields and a variety of human health issues. The study also estimates that excess diesel vehicle nitrogen oxide emissions in 2015 were also linked to approximately 38,000 premature deaths worldwide—mostly in the European Union, China, and India. China suffers the greatest health impact with 31,400 deaths annually attributed to diesel NO pollution, with 10,700 of those deaths linked to excess NOx emissions beyond certification limits. In Europe, where diesel-passenger cars are common, 28,500 deaths annually are attributed to diesel NO pollution, with 11,500 of those deaths linked to excess emissions. At a global level, the study estimates that the impact of all real-world diesel nitrogen oxide emissions will grow to 183,600 early deaths in 2040, unless something is done to reduce it. In some countries, implementing the most stringent standards—already in place elsewhere—could substantially improve the situation, according to the researchers. The authors say emission certification tests, both prior to sale and by vehicle owners, could be more accurate if they were to simulate a broader variety of speeds, driving styles and ambient temperatures. Some European countries now use portable testing devices that track emissions of a car in motion.
News Article | May 15, 2017
Because of testing inefficiencies, maintenance inadequacies and other factors, cars, trucks and buses worldwide emit 4.6 million tons more harmful nitrogen oxide (NO ) than standards allow, according to a new study co-authored by University of Colorado Boulder researchers. The study, published in Nature, shows these excess emissions alone lead to 38,000 premature deaths annually worldwide, including 1,100 deaths in the United States. The findings reveal major inconsistencies between what vehicles emit during testing and what they emit in the real world -- a problem that's far more severe, said the researchers, than the incident in 2015, when federal regulators discovered Volkswagen had been fitting millions of new diesel cars with "defeat devices." The devices sense when a vehicle is undergoing testing and reduce emissions to comply with government standards. Excess emissions from defeat devices have been linked to about 50 to 100 U.S. deaths per year, studies show. "A lot of attention has been paid to defeat devices, but our work emphasizes the existence of a much larger problem," said Daven Henze, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at CU Boulder who, along with postdoctoral researcher Forrest Lacey, contributed to the study. "It shows that in addition to tightening emissions standards, we need to be attaining the standards that already exist in real-world driving conditions." The research was conducted in partnership with the International Council on Clean Transportation, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit organization, and Environmental Health Analytics LLC. For the paper, the researchers assessed 30 studies of vehicle emissions under real-world driving conditions in 11 major vehicle markets representing 80 percent of new diesel vehicle sales in 2015. Those markets include Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Korea and the United States. They found that in 2015, diesel vehicles emitted 13.1 million tons of NO , a chemical precursor to particulate matter and ozone. Exposure in humans can lead to heart disease, stroke, lung cancer and other health problems. Had the emissions met standards, the vehicles would have emitted closer to 8.6 million tons of NO . Heavy-duty vehicles, such as commercial trucks and buses, were by far the largest contributor worldwide, accounting for 76 percent of the total excess NO emissions. Henze used computer modeling and NASA satellite data to simulate how particulate matter and ozone levels are, and will be, impacted by excess NO levels in specific locations. The team then computed the impacts on health, crops and climate. "The consequences of excess diesel NO emissions for public health are striking," said Susan Anenberg, co-lead author of the study and co-founder of Environmental Health Analytics LLC. China suffers the greatest health impact with 31,400 deaths annually attributed to diesel NO pollution, with 10,700 of those deaths linked to excess NO emissions beyond certification limits. In Europe, where diesel-passenger cars are common, 28,500 deaths annually are attributed to diesel NO pollution, with 11,500 of those deaths linked to excess emissions. The study projects that by 2040, 183,600 people will die prematurely each year due to diesel vehicle NO emissions unless governments act. The authors say emission certification tests, both prior to sale and by vehicle owners, could be more accurate if they were to simulate a broader variety of speeds, driving styles and ambient temperatures. Some European countries now use portable testing devices that track emissions of a car in motion. "Tighter vehicle emission standards coupled with measures to improve real-world compliance could prevent hundreds of thousands of early deaths from air pollution-related diseases each year," said Anenberg.
News Article | May 15, 2017
Spewing death: Excess diesel emissions are killing tens of thousands of people every year (AFP Photo/FRED TANNEAU) Paris (AFP) - "Excess" diesel truck and car emissions claimed about 38,000 lives worldwide in 2015, said a study Monday that sought to quantify deaths due to pollution that carmakers sought to hide. Four-fifths of these additional premature deaths due to nitrogen oxide (NOx) pollution occurred in three regions -- the European Union, China and India, researchers reported in the journal Nature. NOx are poisonous gases that contribute to acid rain and combine with ammonia to create particles that can penetrate deep into the lungs and cause cancer, chronic breathing problems and premature death. Until recently, estimates of deaths attributable to NOx pollution was based on levels reported by vehicle makers. Since 2015, however, it has become clear that Volkswagen and other manufacturers used so-called "defeat devices" to disguise the true extent of diesel engine emissions, which are far higher on the road than in laboratory testing. The new study of 11 major car markets -- the others are Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Korea and the United States -- revealed that diesel vehicles spewed at least 50 percent more NOx under real-world driving conditions than their makers claimed. That translates to 38,000 deaths due to "excess" emissions, out of an estimated total of 107,000 lives foreshortened to diesel car and truck fumes in 2015, the researchers found. The study focused on how NOx emissions contribute to air pollution in the form of ozone and fine particulate matter. Long-term exposure is linked to disability and premature death due to stroke, heart disease, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) -- a degenerative condition of the lungs. The elderly are especially vulnerable. "The consequences of excess diesel NOx emissions for public health are striking," said lead author Susan Anenberg, co-founder of Environment Health Analytics, a policy research group based in Washington DC. Commercial trucks and buses are by far the biggest culprit worldwide, accounting for more than three-quarters of excess NOx output. Ninety percent was emitted in just five countries or regions -- Brazil, China, the EU, India and the United States. For light-duty vehicles -- small trucks, cars and vans -- the EU produced nearly 70 percent of global excess NOx emissions, the study found. A earlier study calculated that pollution from 2.6 million Volkswagen cars equipped with test-evading software and sold in Germany from 2008 to 2015 will cause more than 1,200 premature deaths in Europe. But defeat devices are not the only cause of additional NOx emissions, according to the new research. Others included faulty engine calibration, poor maintenance, tampering by vehicle owners, and sub-standard certification testing. To estimate damage caused by NOx emissions, the study combined data from vehicles used in real-world conditions, computer modelling of the atmosphere, satellite observations, along with health and climate models. The researchers calculated that diesel NOx pollution will cause more than 183,000 premature deaths per year by 2040. "Globally, the single-most important action to reduce the health impacts of excess diesel NOx emissions is for countries to implement and properly enforce" European standards for heavy vehicles, said co-author Ray Minjares, a researcher at the International Council on Clean Transportation, a Washington-based research group. Experts not involved in the research said it was likely conservative in its conclusions. "The study may well underestimate the full consequences for public health," said Roy Harrison, a professor of environmental health at the University of Birmingham in England.
News Article | May 16, 2017
Emissions from the world’s fleet of cars, lorries and buses account for 38,000 premature deaths annually worldwide, claims a study co-authored by University of Colorado Boulder researchers. Testing inefficiencies, maintenance inadequacies and other factors have led to 4.6 million tons more harmful nitrogen oxides (NOx) than standards allow, according to the study that has been published in Nature. The findings are said to reveal major inconsistencies between what vehicles emit during testing and what they emit in the real world, a problem more severe that the Volkswagen incident of 2015 when it was found that millions of new diesel cars were fitted with so-called defeat devices. The devices sense when a vehicle is undergoing testing and reduce emissions to comply with government standards. Excess emissions from defeat devices have been linked to about 50 to 100 US deaths per year, studies show. “A lot of attention has been paid to defeat devices, but our work emphasizes the existence of a much larger problem,” said Daven Henze, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at CU Boulder who, along with postdoctoral researcher Forrest Lacey, contributed to the study. “It shows that in addition to tightening emissions standards, we need to be attaining the standards that already exist in real-world driving conditions.” The research was conducted in partnership with the International Council on Clean Transportation, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit organization, and Environmental Health Analytics LLC. For the paper, the researchers assessed 30 studies of vehicle emissions under real-world driving conditions in 11 major vehicle markets representing 80 per cent of new diesel vehicle sales in 2015. Those markets include Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Korea and the United States. They found that in 2015, diesel vehicles emitted 13.1 million tons of NOx, an umbrella term for gases such as NO, NO and N O, which are themselves toxic and are a chemical precursor to other toxic gases such as ozone. Exposure in humans can lead to heart disease, stroke, lung cancer and other health problems. Had the emissions met standards, the vehicles would have emitted closer to 8.6 million tons of NOx. Heavy-duty vehicles were the largest contributor worldwide, accounting for 76 per cent of the total excess NOx emissions. Henze used computer modelling and NASA satellite data to simulate how particulate matter and ozone levels are, and will be, impacted by excess NOx levels in specific locations. The team then computed the impacts on health, crops and climate. “The consequences of excess diesel NOx emissions for public health are striking,” said Susan Anenberg, co-lead author of the study and co-founder of Environmental Health Analytics LLC. China is said to suffer the greatest health impact with 31,400 deaths annually attributed to diesel NOx pollution, with 10,700 of those deaths linked to excess NOx emissions beyond certification limits. In Europe 28,500 deaths annually are attributed to diesel NOx pollution, with 11,500 of those deaths linked to excess emissions. The study projects that by 2040, 183,600 people will die prematurely each year due to diesel vehicle NOx emissions unless governments act. The authors said emission certification tests, both prior to sale and by vehicle owners, could be more accurate if they were to simulate a broader variety of speeds, driving styles and ambient temperatures. Some European countries now use portable testing devices that track emissions of a car in motion. Commenting on the study, Dr Paul Young, lecturer and atmospheric Scientist, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, said: “This work is a thorough assessment of the size of the gap between real world and lab-estimated emissions, showing that the former can be up to five times higher than the emission standard. “This means more NOx, more particulate matter and more ground level ozone, all of which have bad effects on health, plants and even our buildings and infrastructure. One can quibble with the authors’ estimates of the impacts – and they do acknowledge the uncertainty – but they all point in one direction: more deaths and lower crop yields. “This work points to the need to do two things: (1) get better real world estimates of vehicle emissions, and (2) have regulatory procedures that stipulate meeting real world driving emissions. This study has made great strides towards number 1), and – as the authors say – regulators are moving towards number (2).”
News Article | May 24, 2017
Emission scenarios for the years 2015–2040 address LDVs (passenger cars and light commercial vehicles) and HDVs (buses and light, medium and heavy heavy-duty trucks) and are driven by assumptions of when individual countries/regions will adopt more stringent emission regulations. They exclude vehicles powered by gasoline or other non-diesel fuels and non-road diesel engines (such as locomotive, marine and off-road equipment, including diesel generators, construction and agricultural equipment). The emission scenarios (together with analysis year) for health, climate and agricultural impacts are as follows: Emission limits 2015 and 2040. This scenario is theoretical where real-world NO emissions are equivalent to certification limits, reflecting what diesel NO emissions would be without an ‘excess NO ’ problem. Baseline 2015 and 2040. This scenario is the best estimate of how currently adopted NO emission standards perform in the real world. Comparison with the ‘Emission limits 2015 and 2040’ scenario above allows us to estimate ‘excess NO ’ emissions and associated impacts. Euro 6/VI 2040. This scenario adds to the Baseline scenario emissions standards for LDVs and HDVs equivalent to current Euro 6/VI (without modifications to existing type approval and compliance and enforcement provisions) in regions where these are not yet adopted (Australia, Brazil, China, Mexico and Russia). Strong RDE programme for LDVs 2040. This scenario adds to the Euro 6/VI scenario strong diesel LDV RDE programmes, modelled after the EU-28’s adopted RDE regulation plus the inclusion of cold-start emissions, in-use compliance testing, and expanded test procedure boundaries covering a wider range of ambient temperatures, altitudes and driving styles. Next Generation (NextGen) 2040. This scenario adds to the Strong RDE scenario progressive implementation of next-generation emissions standards (more stringent than Euro 6/VI) based on the US Tier 3 standard for LDVs and California’s voluntary NO rule for HDVs. We generate emission inventories for 11 major vehicle markets by combining NO emission factors with dates of implemented vehicle regulations, extensive historical data on diesel vehicle activity, sales and population, and vehicle activity projections through to 2040. We adapt an established global transportation emission inventory model that since 2012 has been applied in numerous global and regional studies and validated against other leading models32. Most diesel vehicle activity is concentrated in the five largest markets (the EU-28, China, India, USA and Brazil), and this share is projected to grow from 2015 to 2040 (81%–88% for HDVs and 93%–96% for LDVs; Extended Data Fig. 4), driven by increasing car ownership in China and India and growing demand for road freight with increases in economic output. Baseline emission factors for each vehicle type and region are based on a review of >30 studies of emission factor modelling and in-use emissions testing using PEMS, chassis testing, and remote sensing covering thousands of vehicles conducted mainly in the USA, Europe, China and Japan. Studies were identified by requests to experts and government contacts, supplemented by searching combinations of key words (NO , diesel, vehicles, road transport, PEMS, remote sensing) in academic literature databases. Increased weight was given to studies conducted within the past 5 years. EU real-world emission factors are applied to markets following EU regulations (Australia, Brazil, India, Russia and South Korea). Since Japan’s LDV regulatory programme has progressed similarly to that for EU standards, the same LDV factors were applied to the EU and Japan except Euro 6, for which Japan’s sales mix has led to slightly lower emissions. The same HDV factors were applied to the EU and Japan with the exception of Japan’s 2009 and 2016 standards, for which EU real-world multipliers were applied to Japan-specific emission limits. Emission factors in the USA were applied to Mexico and Canada. China HDV factors were derived from local studies, whereas LDV factors were based on EU real-world multipliers. We first convert HDV emission limits (which are based on engine work, measured in grams per kWh), to distance-based limits in grams per vehicle-kilometre (Extended Data Fig. 5) using estimates of brake-specific fuel consumption (a measure of engine efficiency over the test cycle) and in-use fuel consumption (a measure of vehicle efficiency that reflects region-specific driving conditions). We then develop real-world emission factors for each region and vehicle type using a combination of established models and results from our literature review. For most HDV emission factors, we assume a 25% margin of error to account for variability in emission measurements and traffic composition (ref. 33). For the EU-28 and the USA, we start with established modelled estimates and update these with published in-use emissions testing results where they are substantially different. Central estimates of emission factors for Euro III, IV and V vehicles are from Emisia’s Sibyl model34, which draws its emission factors from the European Environment Agency and European Commission-supported COPERT software. These emission factors are consistent with remote sensing measurements17, 35 and other EU real-world NO emissions studies16, 33 showing that real-world emissions have not declined to the same extent as regulated emission limits (Extended Data Fig. 6). For Euro VI vehicles, as average chassis dynamometer test results indicate better performance than is indicated by Sibyl (80% reduction, consistent with regulated emission limits)15, we develop new emission factors between the two estimates (see Supplementary Information section 1.3). Heavy heavy-duty truck and bus emission factors decline from 7.8 g km−1 to 0.54 g km−1 and 10 g km−1 to 0.61 g km−1 from Euro III to VI (Extended Data Table 3). For China, we develop new HDV emission factors from five in-use emissions testing studies, which had consistent conclusions for Euro III, IV and V equivalent standards (Extended Data Fig. 6). Euro III and IV emission factors are from ref. 36 for heavy trucks and ref. 37 for buses. Emission factors for Euro V buses are from Zhang et al.38. Emission factors for Euro V medium and heavy trucks are estimated using the percentage reduction in real-world NO in the EU-28 applied to the China-specific emission factor for the previous standard. Heavy heavy-duty truck and bus emission factors decline from 9.4 g km−1 to 0.54 g km−1 and 12.5 g km−1 to 0.61 g km−1 from Euro III to VI, assuming similar performance of Euro VI HDVs in the EU-28 and China (Extended Data Table 3). For US HDVs, central emission factor estimates are based on the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA)’s MOter Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES)39 and validated against remote sensing measurements of exhaust emissions from in-use trucks in California40, as well as PEMS testing41. For buses certified to US EPA 1998, 2004 and 2007 standards, average emission factors by certification level are from the Integrated Bus Information System (IBIS), which includes NO PEMS measurements of >3,000 buses throughout the USA41. We apply the same difference between IBIS and MOVES for EPA 2007 buses (a factor of 1.8) to EPA 2010 buses because they were not in the IBIS database. For heavy-duty trucks, remote sensing measurements indicate that fuel-specific NO emissions decreased by 83% from model years 2004 to 201219 while MOVES estimates an approximately 90% reduction. Limited evidence suggests that EPA 2010 HDVs42, 43 may emit more excess NO in urban driving conditions than equivalent Euro VI vehicles in the EU-2844, potentially owing to USA emissions tests excluding emissions below 30% maximum engine power (EU tests are more inclusive). Since additional PEMS testing (from in-service conformity testing) is needed to establish a robust alternative estimate, we apply the MOVES estimates for EPA 2010 trucks. Lower and upper bound estimates for EPA 1998 to EPA 2007 buses are based on 95% confidence intervals estimated from the IBIS dataset. Heavy heavy-duty truck and bus emission factors decline from 11.6 g km−1 to 0.72 g km−1 and 12.8 g km−1 to 0.93 g km−1 from US EPA 1998 to US EPA 2010 (Extended Data Table 3). Passenger cars in Europe are among the most studied with respect to real-world NO emissions. Emission factor estimates for Euro 1 to Euro 5 passenger cars are based on emission factor models supplemented with in-use emissions testing studies using PEMS, remote sensing, and laboratory measurements (Extended Data Fig. 6). Emission factors for Euro 6 diesel cars are estimated using the International Council on Clean Transportation’s diesel PEMS database covering 32 cars over 180 h and 8,000 km of driving11. Light commercial vehicles (LCVs), though less studied, are shown to emit >1.5× the levels observed for passenger cars45, generally corresponding to the difference between emission limits for heavier LCV classes versus passenger cars. (LCV emission limits depend on vehicle weight class and fall in the range 1–1.6 times the NO limit for cars.) Starting with Euro 4 vehicles, we therefore use average LCV emission factors of 1.5× the level estimated for passenger cars. For Euro 3 and earlier, passenger car and LCV emission factors are aligned with Sibyl, which already reflects earlier emissions testing results. Passenger car emission factors decline from 0.82 g km−1 to 0.45 g km−1 without the RDE programme and to 0.32 g km−1 with the Baseline RDE programme (Extended Data Table 3). For LDVs certified to US Tier 2 standards (2.5 million vehicles from 2004 to 201546), we compute a sales-weighted average of real-world emissions over the Tier 2 bin 5 emission limit (equivalent to 43 mg km−1, mean adjustment factor 5) in three vehicle categories: Volkswagen vehicles with 2.0-litre (about 482,000 vehicles, mean adjustment factor 20) and 3.0-litre (about 85,000, mean adjustment factor 5) engines, and passenger cars and light trucks unaffected by the Volkswagen scandal but which may nonetheless emit NO over regulatory emission limits (1.9 million, mean adjustment factor 1.3). Adjustment factors for Volkswagen vehicles with 2.0- and 3.0-litre engines are generally consistent with previous studies10, 47 and those used to estimate health impact of the Volkswagen scandal in the USA26, 27, 28. The central estimate for unaffected vehicles is based on Vehicle C (a BMW X5) in ref. 48, with a range varying from perfect compliance (a factor of 1) to about 2× the regulated limit (accounting for the rural-uphill/downhill cycle tested, that is, 10× the limit applied to about 5%–10% of vehicle-kilometres travelled). For Tier 1 vehicles, we assume the same average emission factor as Volkswagen vehicles with 2.0-litre engines, since remote sensing measurements indicate that fuel-specific NO emissions of diesel passenger cars have remained statistically unchanged since the progression from Tier 1 to Tier 2, and 95% of tested Tier 2 vehicles were Volkswagen or Audi19. This assumption results in a central estimate of 1.1× (range 0.8×–1.4×) for the Tier 1 emission limit for ‘useful life’ (equivalent to 780 mg km−1 after 10 years or 100,000 miles). Baseline USA LDV 2040 emissions are determined primarily by vehicles certified to Tier 3 standards phasing in 2017–2025, which are expected to match emission limits more closely, owing partly to the California Air Resources Board’s new defeat device screening methods49. Average future Tier 3 vehicle NO emission factors are estimated to be within 30% of the certification limit, based on the real-world multiplier of 1.27 for a Tier 2 diesel vehicle with good performance48. We assume a range of 1×–2× the Tier 3 limit, similar to Tier 2 vehicles unaffected by the Volkswagen emissions scandal. The central estimate for Tier 2 vehicles (including those affected by the Volkswagen scandal) represents a 74% reduction from Tier 1 levels, reflecting that most of the USA diesel LDV fleet was unaffected by the Volkswagen emission scandal. Overall, USA LDV emission factors decline from 0.85 g km−1 to 0.01 g km−1 from Tier 1 to Tier 3 (Extended Data Table 3). Country-level diesel vehicle NO emissions in the 11 regions are gridded based on population and vehicle miles travelled (see Supplementary Information). For the baseline scenario, all emissions evolve from 2015 to 2040, using our real-world on-road diesel NO emissions in the 11 markets combined with the ECLIPSE v5a emissions inventory8, 9 for all other emissions. For the limits and policy scenarios, all emissions are held constant at 2015 (in the case of the limits scenario) or 2040 (policy scenarios) baseline levels, except NO emissions in the 11 markets. Except for Euro 6/VI standards—which reduce primary PM —the policies examined are not expected to affect emissions substantially other than NO . We simulate NO emission impacts on PM and ozone concentrations using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model50 (version of forward model contained within version 35 of the model adjoint51), driven by GEOS-5 assimilated meteorology for 2015 from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at 2° × 2.5° resolution with 47 vertical layers. Simulated PM concentrations are downscaled to 0.1° × 0.1° resolution using PM concentrations derived from remote sensing aerosol optical depth observations52. For health impact calculations, simulated ozone concentrations are simply regridded to the finer resolution, as the impacts of model resolution are much less important than for PM (ref. 53). For each scenario, we conduct four GEOS-Chem simulations: including all emissions and individually zeroing out LDV, heavy-duty bus, and heavy-duty truck NO emissions. We use epidemiologically derived health impact functions to estimate premature PM - and ozone-related mortality changes between the Baseline and Limits scenarios in 2015 (using 2015 population and baseline mortality rates) and between the Baseline and policy scenarios in 2040 (using 2040 population and baseline mortality rates). Global 2015 and 2040 PM and ozone mortality burdens are within the range of other published estimates (see Supplementary Information). We estimate PM -related health impacts using integrated exposure response (IER) curves for five health endpoints: adult (≥25 years) ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer; and child (<5 years) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), following recent studies21, 54. For IHD and stroke, we use the age-specific IERs for each 5-year age band. We use the IER dataset that was publicly available at the time of the analysis55, used for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study56. The IERs take the form: where RR is relative risk in grid cell i for health endpoint h, z is the PM concentration in gridcell i, z is the counterfactual PM concentration below which we assume no additional risk, and α, γ and δ are model parameters for health endpoint h. Sensitivity results using Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study IERs21 are in the Supplementary Information. Ozone relative risk of chronic respiratory disease is from ref. 57. To consider ozone independently from PM —following several other studies58, 59, 60, 61—we use the two-pollutant model controlling for PM , which associated a 10 parts per billion (ppb) increase in the April–September average daily 1-h maximum ozone concentration (range 33.3–104.0 ppb) with a 4% [95% CI, 1.3%–6.7%] increase in chronic respiratory disease RR. The ozone-response relationship is: where RR is relative risk in grid cell i, β is the model parameterized slope of the log-linear relationship between concentration and mortality, and X is the maximum six-month average of the 1-hour daily maximum ozone concentration in gridcell i. We use a low-concentration threshold of 33.3 ppb (the lowest measured level in ref. 57), below which no health impacts are calculated, and examine a 41.9 ppb threshold (5th percentile) in the Supplementary Information. We calculate the PM - and ozone-attributable disease burden within each 0.1° × 0.1° grid cell using the common population attributable fraction method: where M is the disease burden in grid cell i for health endpoint h, P is the population in grid cell i, F is the population fraction in country c for health endpoint h, Y is the baseline incidence rate in country c for health endpoint h. Health damages or benefits are estimated by subtracting disease burdens at the grid cell level between two scenarios. To ascertain HDV and LDV contributions to health impacts, we use the “proportional approach”1 wherein we scale the HDV + LDV change in disease burden by the fraction of HDV + LDV concentration change affected by HDVs and LDVs individually. This method allows us to consider HDV and LDV emissions simultaneously, since removing each from the model separately would lead to lower health impact results for the quantity removed first (and thus on the flatter portion of the non-linear exposure response curve) and higher results for the quantity removed second (on the steeper portion of the non-linear exposure response curve). Uncertainty bounds for health impacts are based only on uncertainty in these concentration-response functions. Uncertainty between two scenarios is calculated by differencing gridded scenario burden estimates using the same relative risks for each (for PM , using the mean, 2.5 percentile, or 97.5 percentiles of the 1,000 RR estimates). Present-day (2015) baseline incidence rates are from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool, accessed 1 November 2016). We use country- and cause-specific rates for ages ≥25 years in 5-year age groups (IHD, stroke, COPD, lung cancer for PM mortality, and chronic respiratory disease for ozone mortality) and <5 years (for ALRI), using regional rates where country rates were unavailable. We scale chronic disease mortality rates to 2040 using International Futures model projections, following other studies60, 61 (see Supplementary Information). Gridded 2015 population (total 6.83 billion) is from Columbia University’s Center for International Earth Science Information Network and projected to 2040 using United Nations country projections (total 8.79 billion; see Supplementary Information). Age-specific population fractions for each country are calculated from the IHME data on number of cases and incidence rates. We estimate ozone-related crop production loss for maize, wheat and soy following ref. 62 (see Supplementary Information). We calculate global radiative forcing of methane and ozone using regional radiative forcing efficiencies (mW m−2 per Tg of emission) from ref. 63. We calculate aerosol (nitrate, sulfate, and ammonia) radiative forcing from NO emission changes using GEOS-Chem with offline Mie theory calculations of aerosol optical properties and the LIDORT radiative transfer model64, 65, 66. Central estimates and lower and upper bounds of direct aerosol radiative forcing are scaled based on model comparison to the model ensemble radiative forcing in ref. 31. We include aerosol cloud interactions by scaling the direct radiative forcing to the net effective radiative forcing following UNEP/WMO67. Our scenario-modelling methods assume that diesel NO emissions are controlled before other air pollution controls are introduced, which might realistically be implemented concurrently. Health benefits of PM reductions are therefore calculated at the exposure-response curve’s flatter end. Here we examine health benefits of the future policy scenarios using instead the ‘proportional approach’, as was used to separate HDV versus LDV impacts in the core results. To implement the proportional approach, we scaled gridded baseline 2040 PM mortality burdens by the gridded fraction of the baseline 2040 PM concentration reduced for each policy scenario. Using this approach results in about 40% more PM -related health benefits for each policy scenario relative to the baseline. Benefits of implementing Euro 6/VI are undercounted because the near elimination of black carbon emissions would yield additional substantial health and climate benefits5, 68. Health impacts of all scenarios could be underestimated because we excluded direct health effects from NO exposure69, morbidity impacts (such as asthma attacks and hospital visits), and health impacts for populations aged 5–24 years. Ozone-related mortality could be underestimated because recent studies indicate larger associations of ozone with respiratory and cardiovascular disease70. Our inclusion of only three major crops and exclusion of impacts on productive grasslands also underestimates agricultural impacts71. We excluded uncertainty in simulated concentrations (for PM we attempted to address this by assimilating with satellite observations), present and future disease incidence rates, and population growth. Though we estimated both, we did not combine uncertainties in emissions and concentration-response functions. We excluded potentially important subnational variation in baseline incidence rates and age stratification72. We assumed that nitrate, the main PM component affected by NO , is equally as toxic as other PM components and mixtures. For crop impacts, we excluded uncertainty about crop spatial extent and growing season and assumed that ozone concentration metrics are reasonable predictors of crop impacts. The direction in which these uncertainties and assumptions may influence results is unknown. Gridded real-world on-road diesel NO emissions datasets are available from figshare (https://figshare.com/articles/DieselNOxEmissionsInventory_zip/4748425). All other data generated during the study are included in the paper or available upon request from the corresponding authors.
Agency: European Commission | Branch: H2020 | Program: CSA | Phase: MG-9.1-2015 | Award Amount: 2.87M | Year: 2016
Global socio-economic and environmental megatrends are urging for a paradigm shift in mobility and transport that involves disruptive technologies and multimodal solutions. The individual transport sectors face diverse technical and non-technical requirements and rather individual, sometimes contradicting challenges. An action plan for the coherent implementation of innovative transport and mobility solutions in Europe is thus urgently needed and should be sustained by a wide range of societal stakeholders. The MOBILITY4EU project will develop such a plan taking into account all modes of transport as well as a multitude of societal drivers encompassing health, environment and climate protection, public safety and security, demographic change, urbanisation and globalisation, economic development, digitalisation and smart system integration. In order to obtain a widely supported and consensusbased action plan a Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA) methodology will be used to consult a broad stakeholder community representing the main societal actors including vulnerable to exclusion citizens in Europe. This stepwise and scientifically sound approach will allow the consortium of the MOBILITY4EU project to involve a large group of stakeholders in the process. The participation will be strengthened by a visualisation-based story map process. The successful implementation of the vision for the future transport and mobility system of Europe will require a continuous cross-modal and inter-stakeholder dialogue and collaboration. For this purpose will the developed action plan also contain the blueprint for the implementation of a sustainable and continuous European Transport and Mobility Forum beyond the duration of the project, e.g. in the form of a new European Technology Platform. The work will be complemented by extensive networking and engagement activities and by dissemination with special focus on young generations and transport users in general.
Agency: European Commission | Branch: FP7 | Program: CSA-CA | Phase: SST.2013.3-2. | Award Amount: 2.19M | Year: 2013
Transport is a key enabler of economic activity and social connectedness. While providing essential services to society and economy, transport is also an important part of the economy and it is at the core of a number of major sustainability challenges, in particular climate change, air quality, safety, energy security and efficiency in the use of resources (EC 2011: Transport White Paper). The overall mission of this project is to support the uptake of innovative sustainable urban mobility solutions in Europe and other regions in the world, in particular in Asia, Latin America and the Mediterranean. The call text has identified several regions in the world, policy areas and previous and on-going projects relevant for addressing the topic: Implementing innovative and green urban transport solutions in Europe and beyond (SST.2013.3-2). SOLUTIONS will address all regions and policy areas, and will link into all projects mentioned in the call text. We believe that this approach generates the greatest synergies, which will be for the benefit of participating cities and the projects SOLUTIONS will link to and build upon. While SOLUTIONS will build strongly on previous and on-going projects and initiatives, as is the nature of a coordinating action, it also aims to provide added value that goes beyond summarising and facilitating knowledge sharing and research and technology transfer. SOLUTIONS aims to bridge the implementation gap between the potential of innovative sustainable mobility and transport solutions and packages of solutions and the actual level of up-take and quality of the deployment mechanisms.