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Ducic V.D.,University of Belgrade | Milenkovic M.D.,Serbian Academy of Science and Arts | Milijasevic D.P.,Serbian Academy of Science and Arts | Vujacic D.M.,Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro | And 5 more authors.
Thermal Science | Year: 2015

The research included trends in water temperature of the Danube River at Bogojevo gauge and surface air temperature at the nearby meteorological station Sombor, as well as an analysis of the results obtained in relation to the claims of the existence of the hiatus in global air temperature increase in the period 1998-2012. In the period 1961-2013, there was a statistically significant increase in the mean annual water temperature (0.039 °C per year), as well as all the average monthly values. However, with annual values for the period 1998-2013, there was a decrease. The longest periods of negative trend (27 years) were recorded for January and February. A high correlation was found between the surface air temperature and water temperature for all monthly and seasonal values. In the mean annual air temperature the presence of the hiatus is not observed, but a negative trend is recorded in March (32 years), December (43 years), and February (49 years). The highest correlations between water temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) were obtained for the NAO in January (0.60), the AMO in autumn (0.52), and the NAO in winter (0.51). For surface air temperature, the highest correlations were registered for the AMO in summer (0.49) and the NAO in winter (0.42). The results indicate the dominant role of natural factors in the decrease of winter air temperature and water temperature of the Danube.


Buric D.,Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro | Lukovic J.,University of Belgrade | Bajat B.,University of Belgrade | Kilibarda M.,University of Belgrade | Zivkovic N.,University of Belgrade
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences | Year: 2015

More intense rainfall may cause a range of negative impacts upon society and the environment. In this study we analysed trends in extreme ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) rainfall indices in Montenegro for the period between 1951 and 2010. Montenegro has been poorly studied in terms of rainfall extremes, yet it contains the wettest Mediterranean region known as Krivošije. Several indices of precipitation extremes were assessed including the number of dry days and rainfall totals in order to identify trends and possible changes. A spatial pattern relationship between extreme rainfall indices and the North Atlantic Oscillation has also been examined. The results generally suggest that the number of days with precipitation decreased while rainfall intensity increased, particularly in south-western parts of the country. A slight tendency towards intense rainfall events is suggested. The examined rainfall indices and North Atlantic Oscillation over Montenegro seemed to be directly linked to changes in one of the major large-scale circulation modes such as the NAO pattern that is particularly evident during the winter season. © Author(s) 2015.


Markusic S.,University of Zagreb | Gulerce Z.,Middle East Technical University | Kuka N.,Polytechnic University of Tirana | Duni L.,Polytechnic University of Tirana | And 8 more authors.
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering | Year: 2016

The Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps in the Western Balkan Countries Project (BSHAP) was funded for 7 years by NATO-Science for Peace Program to support the preparation of new seismic hazard maps of the Western Balkan Region using modern scientific tools. One of the most important outputs of the BSHAP is an updated and unified BSHAP earthquake catalogue that is compiled directly from the datasets of earthquake data providers of the region. The BSHAP earthquake catalogue described here covers the geographic area limited by 38.0°–47.5°N, 12.5°–24.5°E and includes 26,118 earthquakes that occurred in the region between 510 BC and 2012. Details of data compilation efforts including the removal of duplicate events, unification of the magnitude scales, declustering of the catalogue and completeness analysis are presented in this manuscript. New magnitude conversion equations for various local magnitude scales of the data providers are developed with the aim of having homogeneous moment magnitude estimates. Completeness time intervals for the catalogue data are provided as inputs to the seismic source models used to obtain updated seismic hazard of Western Balkan Region. The unified and updated BSHAP catalogue is found to be compatible with the current well-established European and world-wide catalogues and represents a sound basis for analysis of the seismicity of this region. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

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