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Hinrichsen H.-H.,Leibniz Institute of Marine Science | Dickey-Collas M.,Wageningen IMARES | Peck M.A.,Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science | Vikebo F.B.,Norwegian Institute of Marine Research
ICES Journal of Marine Science | Year: 2011

The potential role of coupled biophysical models in enhancing the conservation, management, and recovery of fish stocks is assessed, with emphasis on anchovy, cod, herring, and sprat in European waters. The assessment indicates that coupled biophysical models are currently capable of simulating transport patterns, along with temperature and prey fields within marine ecosystems; they therefore provide insight into the variability of early-life-stage dynamics and connectivity within stocks. Moreover, the influence of environmental variability on potential recruitment success may be discerned from model hindcasts. Based on case studies, biophysical modelling results are shown to be capable of shedding light on whether stock management frameworks need re-evaluation. Hence, key modelling products were identified that will contribute to the development of viable stock recovery plans and management strategies. The study also suggests that approaches combining observation, process knowledge, and numerical modelling could be a promising way forward in understanding and simulating the dynamics of marine fish populations. © 2011 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Source

Schulz J.,University of Oldenburg | Schulz J.,Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research | Schulz J.,Institute for Marine Resources | Peck M.A.,Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science | And 9 more authors.
Progress in Oceanography | Year: 2012

The deep basins in the Baltic Sea such as the Bornholm Basin (BB) are subject to seasonal changes in the strength of physico-chemical stratification. These depth-related changes in key abiotic factors are strong drivers of habitat partitioning by the autochthonous zooplankton community. Species-specific ecophysiological preferences often result in both seasonal and inter-annual changes in vertical abundance that, when combined with depth-specific water currents, also lead to horizontal differences in spatial distribution. The present study documented the seasonal and depth-specific changes in the abundance and species composition of zooplankton in the BB based upon broad-scale survey data: 832 vertically-resolved (10. m) multinet samples collected at nine stations between March 2002 and May 2003. Changes in the zooplankton community were significantly correlated with changes in ambient hydrography. Each of five taxa (. Bosmina coregoni maritima, . Acartia spp., . Pseudocalanus spp., . Temora longicornis, . Synchaeta spp.) contributed >10% to the zooplankton community composition. The appearance of cladocerans was mainly correlated with the phenology of thermocline development in the spring. The cladoceran . B. coregoni maritima was a dominant member of this community during the warmest periods, preferring the surface waters above the thermocline. Copepods exhibited distinct, ontogenetic and seasonal changes in their distribution. The rotifers (. Synchaeta sp.) were the most abundant zooplankton in May. Based on a multivariate approach and the evaluation of vertical distribution patterns, five major habitat utilisation modes were identified that were based, to a large extent, on the dynamics of thermal and haline stratification of the Baltic Sea. Our statistical analysis of one of the most thorough datasets collected on Baltic zooplankton in recent decades reveals some of the factors that make this stratified system highly dynamic with respect to the spatial overlap between predators and prey. As fish and gelatinous plankton often feed in distinct layers and/or exhibit feeding migrations, the inhomogeneous distribution of potential prey can result in a spatial mismatch. Based on the five modes identified at the community level for zooplankton, we discuss how climate-driven hydrographic variability may influence the strength of trophic coupling within the Bornholm Basin. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. Source

Kempf A.,Johann Heinrich Von Thunen Institute | Stelzenmuller V.,Johann Heinrich Von Thunen Institute | Akimova A.,Johann Heinrich Von Thunen Institute | Floeter J.,Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science
Fisheries Oceanography | Year: 2013

The understanding of spatio-temporal dynamics of marine ecosystems is crucial for ecosystem-based fisheries management and climate change impact assessments. We quantified temporal changes in the distribution of 0-group cod (Gadus morhua) and grey gurnard (Eutriglia gurnardus), a primary predator of 0-group cod, with the help of regression kriging and assessed the temporal dynamics of the related spatial predator-prey overlap of these two species at different spatial scales. We analysed the robustness of relationships among abiotic habitat properties (temperature, salinity and depth) and abundance. Small cod was mainly found in low salinity areas of the Skagerrak but larger year classes were able to expand their distribution area towards the central and northern North Sea. In contrast, grey gurnard was mainly found in waters with salinities above 33 and temperatures above 14°C. This species has expanded its high density areas in the central North Sea northward over the last two decades. Recruitment success of cod was negatively correlated to a Moran's I cross-correlation index, a proxy for the degree of spatial overlap between both species. Strong cod year classes overlapped less with grey gurnard at the large and medium spatial scale. In general, the relationships between abiotic habitat properties and abundance showed an increased inter-annual variability, which was likely caused by underlying factors not taken into account in the distribution models. Thus assemblage modeling approaches combining the strength of different model types should be considered in the future to predict potential distribution patterns under climate change scenarios. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Source

Peck M.A.,Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science | Hufnagl M.,Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science
Journal of Marine Systems | Year: 2012

Biophysical individual-based models (IBMs) are the only tools that can provide estimates of spatial and temporal changes in mortality rates of marine fish early life stages as well as the various processes that contribute to those changes. Given the increasing use of these models, one must ask the question: How much faith can we have in their estimates? We briefly review mortality processes acting on marine fish early life stages and how IBMs have been used to estimate those processes. Next, we provide a summary of the sensitivity analyses and scenario results conducted in 50 studies that provided estimates of: 1) advection-based losses from drift modeling, 2) mortality due to starvation from foraging and growth modeling, and/or 3) modeled mortality due to predators. We illustrate how IBM estimates of larval distribution and survival can be sensitive to assumptions regarding the magnitude and timing of mortality by performing drift model simulations for Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) larvae in the North Sea. Despite the growing number of studies applying IBMs, less than 25% reviewed here included formal sensitivity analyses of parameters. Our literature review indicated a need for biological research on 1) larval swimming behavior including cues for movements, 2) foraging parameters such as larval visual field estimates, and 3) parameters associated with growth physiology including assimilation efficiency and energy losses due to active metabolism. Ontogenetic changes in those factors are particularly relevant to examine for modeling activities. Methods also need to be developed for depicting predator encounter in a dynamic way (e.g., based upon predator-prey overlap). High priority should be given to developing (and funding) research programs that not only construct and apply IBMs but also that measure the aspects of larval behavior and physiology as well as aspects of the larval environment needed to parameterize them. Coupling these research activities will strengthen our confidence in IBM-derived estimates of mortality and the processes responsible for death of larvae in the sea. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. Source

Akimova A.,Thunen Institute of Sea Fisheries | Akimova A.,Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science | Hufnagl M.,Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science | Kreus M.,Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science | Peck M.A.,Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science
Fisheries Oceanography | Year: 2016

Temperature and body size are widely agreed to be the primary factors influencing vital rates (e.g., growth, mortality) in marine fishes. We created a biophysical individual-based model which included the effects of body size and temperature on development, growth and mortality rates of eggs, larvae and juveniles of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) in the North Sea. Temperature-dependent mortality rates in our model were based on the consumption rate of predators of cod early-life stages. The model predicted 35%, 53% and 12% of the total mortality to occur during the egg, larval and juvenile stages, respectively. A comparison of modeled and observed body size suggested that the growth of survivors through their first year of life is high and close to the growth rates in ad libitum feeding laboratory experiments. Furthermore, our model indicates that experiencing warmer temperatures during early life only benefits young cod (or theoretically any organism) if a high ratio exists between the temperature coefficients for the rate of growth and the rate of mortality. During the egg stage of cod, any benefit of developing more rapidly at warmer temperatures is largely counteracted by temperature-dependent increases in predation pressure. In contrast, juvenile (age-0) cod experiences a higher cumulative mortality at warmer temperatures in the North Sea. Thus, our study adds a new aspect to the 'growth-survival' hypothesis: faster growth is not always profitable for early-life stages particularly if it is caused by warmer temperatures. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Source

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