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Messina J.P.,University of Oxford | Humphreys I.,University of Oxford | Flaxman A.,Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation | Brown A.,University of Oxford | And 3 more authors.
Hepatology | Year: 2015

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) exhibits high genetic diversity, characterized by regional variations in genotype prevalence. This poses a challenge to the improved development of vaccines and pan-genotypic treatments, which require the consideration of global trends in HCV genotype prevalence. Here we provide the first comprehensive survey of these trends. To approximate national HCV genotype prevalence, studies published between 1989 and 2013 reporting HCV genotypes are reviewed and combined with overall HCV prevalence estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project. We also generate regional and global genotype prevalence estimates, inferring data for countries lacking genotype information. We include 1,217 studies in our analysis, representing 117 countries and 90% of the global population. We calculate that HCV genotype 1 is the most prevalent worldwide, comprising 83.4 million cases (46.2% of all HCV cases), approximately one-third of which are in East Asia. Genotype 3 is the next most prevalent globally (54.3 million, 30.1%); genotypes 2, 4, and 6 are responsible for a total 22.8% of all cases; genotype 5 comprises the remaining <1%. While genotypes 1 and 3 dominate in most countries irrespective of economic status, the largest proportions of genotypes 4 and 5 are in lower-income countries. Conclusion: Although genotype 1 is most common worldwide, nongenotype 1 HCV cases-which are less well served by advances in vaccine and drug development-still comprise over half of all HCV cases. Relative genotype proportions are needed to inform healthcare models, which must be geographically tailored to specific countries or regions in order to improve access to new treatments. Genotype surveillance data are needed from many countries to improve estimates of unmet need. © 2014 The Authors. Source


Nasari M.M.,Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau | Szyszkowicz M.,Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau | Chen H.,Public Health Ontario | Crouse D.,Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau | And 17 more authors.
Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health | Year: 2016

The effectiveness of regulatory actions designed to improve air quality is often assessed by predicting changes in public health resulting from their implementation. Risk of premature mortality from long-term exposure to ambient air pollution is the single most important contributor to such assessments and is estimated from observational studies generally assuming a log-linear, no-threshold association between ambient concentrations and death. There has been only limited assessment of this assumption in part because of a lack of methods to estimate the shape of the exposure-response function in very large study populations. In this paper, we propose a new class of variable coefficient risk functions capable of capturing a variety of potentially non-linear associations which are suitable for health impact assessment. We construct the class by defining transformations of concentration as the product of either a linear or log-linear function of concentration multiplied by a logistic weighting function. These risk functions can be estimated using hazard regression survival models with currently available computer software and can accommodate large population-based cohorts which are increasingly being used for this purpose. We illustrate our modeling approach with two large cohort studies of long-term concentrations of ambient air pollution and mortality: the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) cohort and the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC). We then estimate the number of deaths attributable to changes in fine particulate matter concentrations over the 2000 to 2010 time period in both Canada and the USA using both linear and non-linear hazard function models. © 2016 The Author(s) Source


Micha R.,Harvard University | Micha R.,Agricultural University of Athens | Khatibzadeh S.,Harvard University | Shi P.,Harvard University | And 7 more authors.
BMJ (Online) | Year: 2014

Objectives: To quantify global consumption of key dietary fats and oils by country, age, and sex in 1990 and 2010. Design: Data were identified, obtained, and assessed among adults in 16 age- and sex-specific groups from dietary surveys worldwide on saturated, omega 6, seafood omega 3, plant omega 3, and trans fats, and dietary cholesterol. We included 266 surveys in adults (83% nationally representative) comprising 1 630 069 unique individuals, representing 113 of 187 countries and 82% of the global population. A multilevel hierarchical Bayesian model accounted for differences in national and regional levels of missing data, measurement incomparability, study representativeness, and sampling and modelling uncertainty. Setting and population: Global adult population, by age, sex, country, and time. Results: In 2010, global saturated fat consumption was 9.4%E (95%UI=9.2 to 9.5); country-specific intakes varied dramatically from 2.3 to 27.5%E; in 75 of 187 countries representing 61.8% of the world's adult population, the mean intake was <10%E. Country-specific omega 6 consumption ranged from 1.2 to 12.5%E (global mean=5.9%E); corresponding range was 0.2 to 6.5%E (1.4%E) for trans fat; 97 to 440 mg/day (228 mg/day) for dietary cholesterol; 5 to 3,886 mg/day (163 mg/day) for seafood omega 3; and <100 to 5,542 mg/day (1,371 mg/day) for plant omega 3. Countries representing 52.4% of the global population had national mean intakes for omega 6 fat ≥5%E; corresponding proportions meeting optimal intakes were 0.6% for trans fat (≤0.5%E); 87.6% for dietary cholesterol (<300 mg/day); 18.9% for seafood omega 3 fat (≥250 mg/day); and 43.9% for plant omega 3 fat (≥1,100 mg/day). Trans fat intakes were generally higher at younger ages; and dietary cholesterol and seafood omega 3 fats generally higher at older ages. Intakes were similar by sex. Between 1990 and 2010, global saturated fat, dietary cholesterol, and trans fat intakes remained stable, while omega 6, seafood omega 3, and plant omega 3 fat intakes each increased. Conclusions: These novel global data on dietary fats and oils identify dramatic diversity across nations and inform policies and priorities for improving global health. Source


Micha R.,Tufts University | Khatibzadeh S.,Harvard University | Shi P.,Tufts University | Andrews K.G.,Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation | And 2 more authors.
BMJ Open | Year: 2015

Objective: To quantify global intakes of key foods related to non-communicable diseases in adults by region (n=21), country (n=187), age and sex, in 1990 and 2010. Design: We searched and obtained individual-level intake data in 16 age/sex groups worldwide from 266 surveys across 113 countries. We combined these data with food balance sheets available in all nations and years. A hierarchical Bayesian model estimated mean food intake and associated uncertainty for each agesex- country-year stratum, accounting for differences in intakes versus availability, survey methods and representativeness, and sampling and modelling uncertainty. Setting/population: Global adult population, by age, sex, country and time. Results: In 2010, global fruit intake was 81.3 g/day (95% uncertainty interval 78.9-83.7), with countryspecific intakes ranging from 19.2-325.1 g/day; in only 2 countries (representing 0.4% of the world's population), mean intakes met recommended targets of ≥300 g/day. Country-specific vegetable intake ranged from 34.6-493.1 g/day (global mean=208.8 g/ day); corresponding values for nuts/seeds were 0.2- 152.7 g/day (8.9 g/day); for whole grains, 1.3- 334.3 g/day (38.4 g/day); for seafood, 6.0-87.6 g/day (27.9 g/day); for red meats, 3.0-124.2 g/day (41.8 g/ day); and for processed meats, 2.5-66.1 g/day (13.7 g/day). Mean national intakes met recommended targets in countries representing 0.4% of the global population for vegetables (≥400 g/day); 9.6% for nuts/seeds (≥4 (28.35 g) servings/week); 7.6% for whole grains (≥2.5 (50 g) servings/day); 4.4% for seafood (≥3.5 (100 g) servings/week); 20.3% for red meats (≤1 (100 g) serving/week); and 38.5% for processed meats (≤1 (50 g) serving/week). Intakes of healthful foods were generally higher and of less healthful foods generally lower at older ages. Intakes were generally similar by sex. Vegetable, seafood and processed meat intakes were stable over time; fruits, nuts/seeds and red meat, increased; and whole grains, decreased. Conclusions: These global dietary data by nation, age and sex identify key challenges and opportunities for optimising diets, informing policies and priorities for improving global health. Source

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