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Zoller G.,University of Potsdam | Ullah S.,German Research Center for Geosciences | Bindi D.,German Research Center for Geosciences | Parolai S.,German Research Center for Geosciences | Mikhailova N.,Institute of Geophysical Research
Geological Society Special Publication | Year: 2017

The knowledge of the largest expected earthquake magnitude in a region is one of the key issues in probabilistic seismic hazard calculations and the estimation of worst-case scenarios. Earthquake catalogues are the most informative source of information for the inference of earthquake magnitudes. We analysed the earthquake catalogue for Central Asia with respect to the largest expected magnitudes mT in a pre-defined time horizon Tf using a recently developed statistical methodology, extended by the explicit probabilistic consideration of magnitude errors. For this aim, we assumed broad error distributions for historical events, whereas the magnitudes of recently recorded instrumental earthquakes had smaller errors. The results indicate high probabilities for the occurrence of large events (M ≥ 8), even in short time intervals of a few decades. The expected magnitudes relative to the assumed maximum possible magnitude are generally higher for intermediate-depth earthquakes (51-300 km) than for shallow events (0-50 km). For long future time horizons, for example, a few hundred years, earthquakes with M ≥ 8.5 have to be taken into account, although, apart from the 1889 Chilik earthquake, it is probable that no such event occurred during the observation period of the catalogue. © The Geological Society of London 2017.


Kopnichev Y.F.,Russian Academy of Sciences | Sokolova I.N.,Institute of Geophysical Research
Izvestiya - Atmospheric and Ocean Physics | Year: 2016

This paper addresses inhomogeneities in the short-period S-wave attenuation field in the lithosphere beneath Altai. A technique based on the analysis of the amplitude ratios of Sn and Pn waves is used. High S-wave attenuation areas are identified in the West Altai, which are related to the source zones of recent large earthquakes, viz., the 1990 Zaisan earthquake and the 2003 Chuya earthquake. Associated with the Chuya earthquake, a large ringlike seismogenic structure had been formed since 1976. It is also found that ringlike seismogenic structures are confined to high S-wave attenuation areas unrelated to large historical earthquakes. It is supposed that processes paving the way for strong earthquakes are taking place in these areas. The magnitudes of probable earthquakes are estimated using the earlier derived correlation dependences of the sizes of ringlike seismogenic structures and the threshold values of magnitudes on the energy of principal earthquakes with prevailing focal mechanisms taken into consideration. The sources of some earthquakes are likely to occur near to the planned gas pipeline route from Western Siberia to China, which should be taken into account. The relationship of anomalies in the S-wave attenuation field and the ringlike seismogenic structures to a high content of deep-seated fluids in the lithosphere is discussed. © 2016, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.


Kopnichev Y.F.,Russian Academy of Sciences | Sokolova I.N.,Institute of Geophysical Research | Sokolov K.N.,Saint Petersburg State University
Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth | Year: 2013

The characteristics of the attenuation field of short-period shear waves in the region of Nevada nuclear test site (NNTS) are studied. The seismograms of underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and earthquakes recorded by three seismic stations in 1975-2012 at the epicentral distances of up to 1000 km are processed by the methods based on the analysis of the amplitude ratios of Sn to Pn and Lg to Pg waves, as well as the S-coda envelopes for close events. It is shown that the structure of the attenuation field in the Earth's crust and upper mantle in the NNTS region experienced significant temporal variations during the interval of nuclear operations. The strongest variations were associated with UNEs conducted in the Pahute Mesa area, which held about two-thirds of the most intense explosions. Our data indicate that temporal variations in the structure of the attenuation field are related to the migration of deep fluids. A comparison of the general characteristics of the attenuation field in the regions of the three large nuclear test sites is presented. © 2013 Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.


Slinkard M.,P.O. Box 5800 Mail Stop 0404 | Schaff D.,230B Seismology 61 Route 9W | Mikhailova N.,Institute of Geophysical Research | Heck S.,P.O. Box 5800 Mail Stop 0401 | And 2 more authors.
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America | Year: 2014

Waveform correlation is garnering attention as a method for detecting, locating, and characterizing similar seismic events. To explore the opportunities for using waveform correlation in broad regional monitoring, we applied the technique to a large region of central Asia over a three-year period, monitoring for events at regional distances using three high-quality stations. We discuss methods for choosilng quality templates and introduce a method for choosing correlation detection thresholds, tailored for each template, for a desired false alarm rate. Our SeisCorr software found more than 10,000 detections during the three-year period using almost 2000 templates.We discuss and evaluate three methods of confirming detections: bulletin confirmation, high correlation with a template, and multistation validation. At each station, 65%–75% of our detections could be confirmed,most bymultistation validation.We confirmed over 6500unique detections. For monitoring applications, it is of interest that a significant portion of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization’s Late Event Bulletin (LEB) catalog events was detected and that adding our confirmed detections for the LEB catalog would more than double the catalog size.Waveform correlation also allows for relative magnitude calculation, and we explore the magnitudes of detected events. The results of our study suggest that doing broad regional monitoring using historical and real-time-generated templates is feasible and will increase detection capabilities. © 2014, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. All rights reserved.


Kopnichev Yu.F.,RAS Institute for Nuclear Research | Sokolova I.N.,Institute of Geophysical Research
Doklady Earth Sciences | Year: 2012

The shear wave attenuation field in the lithosphere of Eastern Tien Shan has been mapped. The method based on analysis of the ratio between amplitudes of Sn and Pn waves was used. On aggregate, about 120 seismograms made at the Makanchi station (MKAR), mainly in the period of 2003-2009, at epicentral distances of about 350-1200 km were analyzed. It was found that shear wave attenuation in the lithosphere of Eastern Tien Shan is weaker than that in the region of Central Tien Shan. This agrees with the fact that the rate of deformation of the Earth's crust in Eastern Tien Shan is lower (based on GPS data), as is the seismicity level, in comparison to Central Tien Shan. The zones of high attenuation, where strong earthquakes with M > 7.0 have not occurred for the last 200 years, have been identified: first of all, these are the area west of Urumqi and that of the Lop Nur test site. It is suggested that in the first zone, where an annular seismicity structure has formed over the last 30 years, a strong earthquake may be being prepared. The second zone is most probably related to the uplift of mantle fluids resulting from a long-term intensive technogenic effect, analogous to what has occurred in areas of other nuclear test sites (Nevada and Semipalatinsk). © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2012.


An V.A.,Russian Academy of Sciences | Ovtchinnikov V.M.,Russian Academy of Sciences | Kaazik P.B.,Russian Academy of Sciences | Adushkin V.V.,Russian Academy of Sciences | And 9 more authors.
GeoResJ | Year: 2015

Seismologists from Kazakhstan, Russia, and the United States have rescued the Soviet-era archive of nuclear explosion seismograms recorded at Borovoye in northern Kazakhstan during the period 1966-1996. The signals had been stored on about 8000 magnetic tapes, which were held at the recording observatory. After hundreds of man-years of work, these digital waveforms together with significant metadata are now available via the project URL, namely http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/Monitoring/Data/ as a modern open database, of use to diverse communities. Three different sets of recording systems were operated at Borovoye, each using several different seismometers and different gain levels. For some explosions, more than twenty different channels of data are available. A first data release, in 2001, contained numerous glitches and lacked many instrument responses, but could still be used for measuring accurate arrival times and for comparison of the strengths of different types of seismic waves. The project URL also links to our second major data release, for nuclear explosions in Eurasia recorded in Borovoye, in which the data have been deglitched, all instrument responses have been included, and recording systems are described in detail. This second dataset consists of more than 3700 waveforms (digital seismograms) from almost 500 nuclear explosions in Eurasia, many of them recorded at regional distances. It is important as a training set for the development and evaluation of seismological methods of discriminating between earthquakes and underground explosions, and can be used for assessment of three-dimensional models of the Earth's interior structure. © 2015 The Authors.


Kopnichev Y.F.,Russian Academy of Sciences | Sokolova I.N.,Institute of Geophysical Research
Journal of Volcanology and Seismology | Year: 2010

We discuss seismicity characteristics in the source zones of two great earthquakes: the December 26, 2004 Sumatra (Mw = 9.0) and the November 14, 2001 Kunlun (Mw = 7.8) events. Ring structures of low magnitude seismicity have been forming prior to these earthquakes for several decades. We studied the short period shear-wave attenuation field in the area of these ring structures. The method we used is based on the analysis of the rate of attenuation for the early Sn and Lg codas to detect attenuation inhomogeneities in the uppermost mantle. We show that the ring structures have comparatively high attenuation of shear waves compared with the crustal volumes inside the rings. The fact that there is no recent volcanism in the area of the seismicity rings shows that this effect is due to a high content of free fluids in the uppermost mantle. Proceeding by analogy with our results, we identified a zone in northern Tien Shan that is anomalous for these parameters; the zone may be related to the precursory process of a large earthquake. We discuss the geodynamic mechanisms that may be responsible for fluid concentration in the seismicity rings. © 2010 Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.


Kopnichev Y.F.,Russian Academy of Sciences | Sokolova I.N.,Institute of Geophysical Research
Journal of Volcanology and Seismology | Year: 2014

It is shown that episodes of comparative seismic quiescence that lasted about 20–25 years in the areas of study alternated with intervals of sharply increased seismicity as series of large (M ≥ 6.9) earthquakes occurred during two to three decades. Since no M ≥ 6.6 earthquake has occurred in the area for as long as 21 years after the 1992 Susamyr event, middle-term prediction would require identification of zones of imminent large earthquakes. More reliable identification of such zones rests on data relating to inhomogeneities in the field of S-wave attenuation in the lithosphere, as well as on the characteristics of ring structures of seismicity. Such structures are formed as zones of seismic quiescence that are bounded by M ≳ Mth earthquake epicenters, where Mth is the threshold magnitude value. Correlative relationships were previously derived, lgL(Mw) and Mth(Mw), for events with different focal mechanisms (L is the length of the longer axis of a seismicity ring and Mw is the magnitude of the associated large earthquake). These relationships were used to estimate the Mw of large events that can occur in these ring structures. The greatest earthquake with Mw ≳ 7.5 is probably about to occur in southern Tien Shan, east of the 1949 Khait earthquake rupture. A smaller event (Mw ∼ 7.0) can occur in the Kyrgyz Range area. Still smaller earthquakes probably have their precursory areas north and east of Lake Issyk-Kul, as well as in Dzungaria. © 2014, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.


Kopnichev Y.F.,Russian Academy of Sciences | Sokolova I.N.,Institute of Geophysical Research
Doklady Earth Sciences | Year: 2011

The characteristics of seismicity prior to the series of eight very strong earthquakes (M w = 7.0-9.0) in Northeast Japan are discussed. Ring seismicity structures that appeared prior to all eight events in two depth ranges of 0-33 and 34-70 km are identified. The epicenters of the main shocks were located near areas of crossing or touching of shallow and deep rings. It was shown that the sizes of shallow rings and threshold magnitudes corresponding to seismicity rings grow with the energy of the main shocks. It was noted that the prognosis with respect to the place and magnitude of the catastrophic earthquake on March 11, 2011, had been made before it based on the data obtained prior to July 1, 2009. Use of the new data obtained prior to March 10, 2011, enabled us to specify this prognosis significantly. We obtained correlation dependences of threshold magnitudes on the energy of the main shocks (with a high correlation coefficients). It was shown that the duration of the period for seismicity rings to emerge in the considered region nearly did not depend on magnitude. The nature of annular structures and the possibility of application of their parameters for prognosis of strong earthquakes were discussed. © 2011 Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.

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