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Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Duspohl M.,Landkreis Rotenburg Wumme | Doll P.,Institute of Physical Geography
Journal of Cleaner Production | Year: 2016

This paper presents a participatory process, in the course of which stakeholders identified an implementable strategy for promoting renewable electricity generation in a county in Germany. In the process, a new combination of participatory methods was applied, including two participatory modeling approaches that are based on causal networks and the participatory development of qualitative normative scenarios. After the participatory process the combination of methods was evaluated regarding the ability to 1) map out the diversity of stakeholders' perspectives, 2) to grasp the complexity of the problem, 3) to make uncertainty of complex problems transparent and 4) to support the identification of implementable strategies. Evaluation results showed that the applied methods were able to fulfill criteria 1) to 3). Specifically, application of actor modeling lead to fulfillment of criteria 1) and 2), while normative scenario generation addressed criterion 3). Criterion 4) was only partly fulfilled due to lack of credibility of the Bayesian Network modeling results. This was caused by the high uncertainty of the conditional probabilities elicited from experts, as there is little empirical system knowledge in particular about the potential effects of management options. On the other hand, stakeholders were not sufficiently involved in the construction and application of Bayesian Network models during the participatory process. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Source

Eicker A.,Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation | Schumacher M.,Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation | Kusche J.,Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation | Doll P.,Institute of Physical Geography | Schmied H.M.,Institute of Physical Geography
Surveys in Geophysics | Year: 2014

We introduce a new ensemble-based Kalman filter approach to assimilate GRACE satellite gravity data into the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model. The approach (1) enables the use of the spatial resolution provided by GRACE by including the satellite observations as a gridded data product, (2) accounts for the complex spatial GRACE error correlation pattern by rigorous error propagation from the monthly GRACE solutions, and (3) allows us to integrate model parameter calibration and data assimilation within a unified framework. We investigate the formal contribution of GRACE observations to the Kalman filter update by analysis of the Kalman gain matrix. We then present first model runs, calibrated via data assimilation, for two different experiments: the first one assimilates GRACE basin averages of total water storage and the second one introduces gridded GRACE data at 5∘ resolution into the assimilation. We finally validate the assimilated model by running it in free mode (i.e., without adding any further GRACE information) for a period of 3 years following the assimilation phase and comparing the results to the GRACE observations available for this period. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Source

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