Institute Meteorologia

Lisbon, Portugal

Institute Meteorologia

Lisbon, Portugal
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Agency: European Commission | Branch: FP7 | Program: CP-CSA | Phase: SPA.2011.1.5-02 | Award Amount: 27.65M | Year: 2011

MACC II (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate Interim Implementation) is designed to meet the requirements that have been expressed for prototype operational GMES services for the atmospheric domain. From late-2011 MACC II will continue the operation and development of the GMES service lines established by the MACC project and prepare for its transition in 2014 to become the atmospheric monitoring component of GMES Operations. MACC II will prepare for full operations in terms of continuity, sustainability and availability. It will maintain and further develop the efficiency and resilience of its end-to-end processing system, and will refine the quality of the products of the system. It will adapt the system to make use of observations from new satellites, in particular the first of the atmospheric Sentinels, and will interface with FP7 RTD projects that contribute towards long-term service improvement. MACC II will ensure that its service lines best meet both the requirements of downstream-service providers and end users, and the requirements of the global scientific user community. The service lines will cover air quality, climate forcing, stratospheric ozone and solar radiation. MACC II will deliver products and information that support the establishment and implementation of European policy and wider international programmes. It will acquire and assimilate observational data to provide sustained real-time and retrospective global monitoring of greenhouse gases, aerosols and reactive gases such as tropospheric ozone and nitrogen dioxide. It will provide daily global forecasts of atmospheric composition, detailed air-quality forecasts and assessments for Europe, and key information on long range transport of atmospheric pollutants. It will provide comprehensive web-based graphical products and gridded data. Feedback will be given to space agencies and providers of in situ data on the quality of their data and future observational requirements.

Agency: European Commission | Branch: FP7 | Program: CP | Phase: SPA-2007-1.1-01 | Award Amount: 32.56M | Year: 2008

geoland2 intends to constitute a major step forward in the implementation of the GMES Land Monitoring Core Service (LMCS). The three components (Local, Continental and Global) of the LMCS are addressed. The goal of geoland2 is (i) to prepare, validate and demonstrate pre-operational service chains and products that will underpin the LMCS, and (ii) to propose and demonstrate a concrete functional organisation of the LMCS. The geoland2 deliverables are : (i) the organisation of a production network, (ii) the building of operational processing lines, (iii), the demonstration of services and products, (iv), the set up of a land user platform. geoland2 efforts will rely on the assets of previous or ongoing projects funded under FP6 (geoland, Boss4GMES), by ESA (GSE projects Land, Forest Monitoring, GMFS, SAGE, Urban Services) and EEAs CLC/FTS 2006 project. The architecture of geoland2 is made of two different layers, the Core Mapping Services (CMS) and the Core Information Services (CIS). The CMS produce basic land cover, land cover change, and land state products which are of broad generic use and can be directly used for deriving more elaborated products. The CMS products cover a wide variety of thematic content, spatial scales from local to global, and update frequency, from 1 day to several years. The CIS are a set of thematic elements that start from CMS products and other data sources to produce elaborated information products addressing specific European policies. They are in direct contact with institutional end-users in charge of European policies and Member State policies which have a generic pan-European character. geoland2 gathers 51 partners from 21 European countries. The requested EC grant is 25 M, which corresponds to a total budget of approximately 37 M. The largest part of the budget allocation goes to the construction of the CMS.

Freitas S.C.,Institute Meteorologia | Trigo I.F.,Institute Meteorologia | Trigo I.F.,Instituto Dom Luiz CGUL | Bioucas-Dias J.M.,University of Lisbon | Gottsche F.-M.,Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing | Year: 2010

Land surface temperature (LST) is estimated from thermal infrared data provided by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) onboard Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), using a generalized split-window (GSW) algorithm. The uncertainty of the LST retrievals is highly dependent on the input accuracy and retrieval conditions, particularly the sensor view angle and the atmospheric water vapor content. This paper presents a quantification of the uncertainty of LST estimations, taking into account error statistics of the GSW under a globally representative collection of atmospheric profiles, and a careful characterization of the uncertainty of input data, particularly the surface emissivity and forecasts of the total water vapor content. Such analysis is the basis for LST uncertainty estimation, also distributed to users, in the form of error bars, along with the LST retrievals. Moreover, the spatial coverage of SEVIRI LST is essentially determined by the LST expected uncertainty, instead of being restricted to view zenith angles below a given threshold (e.g., 60°). Within the MSG disk, the atmosphere is often dry for clear-sky conditions where angles are large (e.g., Northern and Eastern Europe and Saudi Arabia). By considering several factors that contribute to LST inaccuracies, it is possible to increase the spatial coverage to regions such as those mentioned earlier. Retrieved values are also compared with in situ observations collected in Namibia, covering a seasonal cycle. The two data sets are in good agreement with root-mean-square differences ranging between 1 °C and 2 °C, which is well below the average error estimated for the satellite retrievals. © 2009 IEEE.

Ramos A.M.,University of Vigo | Ramos A.M.,University of Lisbon | Trigo R.M.,University of Lisbon | Santo F.E.,Institute Meteorologia
Climate Research | Year: 2011

Changes in surface air temperature extremes over mainland Portugal since the early 1940s were investigated on the basis of daily maximum and minimum temperatures available from time series from 23 weather stations. The maximum (minimum) temperature decreased by 0.17°C decade -1 (0.19°C decade -1) for 1941-1975 followed by an increase of 0.49°C decade -1 (0.54°C decade -1) for 1976-2006, significantly higher than similar trends computed at the global and European scales. A large set of climatic indices was analysed to detect the presence of trends and quantify the variations of different indices for different periods. In the 1976-2006 period, many stations revealed statistically significant positive trends in the annual number of tropical nights, summer days, warm spells, warm nights and warm days. At the seasonal level, we detected statistically significant increments of extreme heat events for spring and summer, and a decrease of cold extremes in winter. We then used the HadRM3 output to study changes in the maximum and minimum temperature distributions and associated changes in the likelihood of extreme events in the future (2071-2100) under 2 change scenarios. Changes obtained for the future are consistent with those found since the mid- 1970s in Portugal with an increase in maximum temperature of 3.2°C (4.7°C) for the B2 (A2) scenario in summer and ∼3.4°C in both scenarios for spring. For minimum temperature, the results were similar, with increases for summer (spring) ranging from 2.7°C (2.5°C) in the B2 scenario to 4.1°C (2.9°C) in the A2 scenario. © Inter-Research 2011.

Soares P.M.M.,University of Lisbon | Cardoso R.M.,University of Lisbon | Miranda P.M.A.,University of Lisbon | de Medeiros J.,University of Lisbon | And 2 more authors.
Climate Dynamics | Year: 2012

This study proposes a dynamically downscaled climatology of Portugal, produced by a high resolution (9 km) WRF simulation, forced by 20 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989-2008), nested in an intermediate domain with 27 km of resolution. The Portuguese mainland is characterized by large precipitation gradients, with observed mean annual precipitation ranging from about 400 to over 2,200 mm, with a very wet northwest and rather dry southeast, largely explained by orographic processes. Model results are compared with all available stations with continuous records, comprising daily information in 32 stations for temperature and 308 for precipitation, through the computation of mean climatologies, standard statistical errors on daily to seasonally timescales, and distributions of extreme events. Results show that WRF at 9 km outperforms ERA-Interim in all analyzed variables, with good results in the representation of the annual cycles in each region. The biases of minimum and maximum temperature are reduced, with improvement of the description of temperature variability at the extreme range of its distribution. The largest gain of the high resolution simulations is visible in the rainiest regions of Portugal, where orographic enhancement is crucial. These improvements are striking in the high ranking percentiles in all seasons, describing extreme precipitation events. WRF results at 9 km compare favorably with published results supporting its use as a high-resolution regional climate model. This higher resolution allows a better representation of extreme events that are of major importance to develop mitigation/adaptation strategies by policy makers and downstream users of regional climate models in applications such as flash floods or heat waves. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

Soares P.M.M.,University of Lisbon | Soares P.M.M.,Polytechnic Institute of Lisbon | Cardoso R.M.,University of Lisbon | Miranda P.M.A.,University of Lisbon | And 3 more authors.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres | Year: 2012

A new data set of daily gridded observations of precipitation, computed from over 400 stations in Portugal, is used to assess the performance of 12 regional climate models at 25km resolution, from the ENSEMBLES set, all forced by ERA-40 boundary conditions, for the 1961-2000 period. Standard point error statistics, calculated from grid point and basin aggregated data, and precipitation related climate indices are used to analyze the performance of the different models in representing the main spatial and temporal features of the regional climate, and its extreme events. As a whole, the ENSEMBLES models are found to achieve a good representation of those features, with good spatial correlations with observations. There is a small but relevant negative bias in precipitation, especially in the driest months, leading to systematic errors in related climate indices. The underprediction of precipitation occurs in most percentiles, although this deficiency is partially corrected at the basin level. Interestingly, some of the conclusions concerning the performance of the models are different of what has been found for the contiguous territory of Spain; in particular, ENSEMBLES models appear too dry over Portugal and too wet over Spain. Finally, models behave quite differently in the simulation of some important aspects of local climate, from the mean climatology to high precipitation regimes in localized mountain ranges and in the subsequent drier regions. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.

Cardoso R.M.,University of Lisbon | Soares P.M.M.,University of Lisbon | Miranda P.M.A.,University of Lisbon | Belo-Pereira M.,Institute Meteorologia
International Journal of Climatology | Year: 2013

In this study precipitation from a high resolution WRF climate simulation is presented and evaluated against daily gridded observations in the Iberian Peninsula. The simulation corresponds to a dynamical downscaling of ERA-Interim, in the period 1989-2009, performed with two nested grids, at 27 and 9km horizontal resolution. The higher resolution simulation indicates a significantly improved representation of Iberian precipitation fields, at all timescales, with emphasis on the representation of variability and of extreme weather statistics. Results compare well with recent studies with other models and/or for other regions, further supporting the use of WRF as a regional climate model. © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.

Antunes S.,Institute Meteorologia | Pires O.,Associacao Portuguesa de Meteorologia e Geofisica | Rocha A.,University of Aveiro
International Journal of Climatology | Year: 2010

The North Atlantic mean sea level pressure field variability is analysed. A space-time study is performed using multichannel singular spectral analysis, allowing the detection of significant space-time modes of variability with periodicity behaviour. It is shown that there is a space variability associated with the time variability of the pressure field. The oscillation is not quasi-meridional but has different orientations, rotating in a cycle, with a periodicity of about 9 years, from the positive North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) phase through the negative NAO phase and again to the positive phase. This periodicity behaviour was previously detected in the temporal principal components extracted from a principal component analysis but, in the time domain, it was found as not significant. Furthermore, the analysis of a long series of an NAO index had already revealed similar periodicity behaviour. © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society.

Carrasco-Diaz M.,Institute Meteorologia | Carrasco-Diaz M.,Altamira | Rivas D.,CICESE | Orozco-Contreras M.,Altamira | Sanchez-Montante O.,Altamira
Renewable Energy | Year: 2015

Herein, we present an assessment of wind power potential along the coast of Tamaulipas, northeastern Mexico. We propose a method to characterize wind variability and to estimate wind potential in coastal areas where appropriate meteorological measurements may not be available. A gridded reanalysis wind product (BMW-CERSAT), which provides data of zonal and meridional components of wind with a resolution of 1/4°(~25km) from years 2004-2009, is used as the reference wind field after a statistical comparison to near-surface observations. Mean wind intensity field at 50-m height and its corresponding mean power density are modeled by using the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP). The wind power potential of the southern half of Tamaulipas State is classified as poor (200-300Wm-2), becoming marginal in some areas near the coast. Only the northern half of the State is classified with moderate potential (400-500Wm-2), while the lagoon zone has good potential. Estimates, however, could be 30-50% higher if wind observations are measured at a higher frequency. Results show that the wind potential along Tamaulipas is lower than that suggested by the official prevailing eolic-potential map in Mexico. We conclude that even if the assessment presented in this work is preliminary, it gives a realistic approximation of wind as a promising renewable source for electric generation along the coast of Tamaulipas. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

Carrer D.,Meteo - France | Lafont S.,Meteo - France | Roujean J.-L.,Meteo - France | Calvet J.-C.,Meteo - France | And 3 more authors.
Journal of Hydrometeorology | Year: 2012

The Land Surface Analysis Satellite Applications Facility (LSA SAF) project radiation fluxes, derived from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite, were used in the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model (LSM), which is a component of the Surface Externalisée (SURFEX) modeling platform. The Syste'me d'Analyze Fournissant des Renseignements Atmosphériques a' la Neige (SAFRAN) atmospheric analysis provides high-resolution atmospheric variables used to drive LSMs over France. The impact of using the incoming solar and infrared radiation fluxes [downwelling surface shortwave (DSSF) and longwave (DSLF), respectively] from either SAFRAN or LSA SAF, in ISBA, was investigated over France for 2006. In situ observations from the FluxNetwork (FLUXNET) were used for the verification. Daily differences between SAFRAN and LSA SAF radiation fluxes averaged over the whole year 2006 were 3.75 and 2.61 W m -2 for DSSF and DSLF, respectively, representing 2.5% and 0.8% of their average values. The LSA SAF incoming solar radiation presented a better agreement with in situ measurements at six FLUXNET stations than the SAFRAN analysis. The bias and standard deviation of differences were reduced by almost 50%. The added value of the LSA SAF products was assessed with the simulated surface temperature, soil moisture, and the water and energy fluxes. The latter quantities were improved by the use of LSA SAF satellite estimates. As many areas lack a high-resolution meteorological analysis, the LSA SAF radiative products provide new and valuable information. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.

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