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Sant'Ambrogio di Torino, Italy

Balcan D.,Indiana University Bloomington | Vespignani A.,Indiana University Bloomington | Vespignani A.,Institute for Scientific Interchange ISI
Nature Physics | Year: 2011

Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumours, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations and recurrent flows and poorly modelled by the random diffusive dynamics generally used to study them. Here we develop a theoretical framework to analyse contagion within a network of locations where individuals recall their geographic origins. We find a phase transition between a regime in which the contagion affects a large fraction of the system and one in which only a small fraction is affected. This transition cannot be uncovered by continuous deterministic models because of the stochastic features of the contagion process and defines an invasion threshold that depends on mobility parameters, providing guidance for controlling contagion spread by constraining mobility processes. We recover the threshold behaviour by analysing diffusion processes mediated by real human commuting data. © 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Source

Perra N.,Indiana University Bloomington | Perra N.,Center for the Study of Complex Networks | Balcan D.,Indiana University Bloomington | Goncalves B.,Indiana University Bloomington | And 2 more authors.
PLoS ONE | Year: 2011

The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single individuals. However, relatively little systematic work has been done to provide coupled behavior-disease models able to close the feedback loop between behavioral changes triggered in the population by an individual's perception of the disease spread and the actual disease spread itself. While models lacking this coupling can be extremely successful in mild epidemics, they obviously will be of limited use in situations where social disruption or behavioral alterations are induced in the population by knowledge of the disease. Here we propose a characterization of a set of prototypical mechanisms for self-initiated social distancing induced by local and non-local prevalence-based information available to individuals in the population. We characterize the effects of these mechanisms in the framework of a compartmental scheme that enlarges the basic SIR model by considering separate behavioral classes within the population. The transition of individuals in/out of behavioral classes is coupled with the spreading of the disease and provides a rich phase space with multiple epidemic peaks and tipping points. The class of models presented here can be used in the case of data-driven computational approaches to analyze scenarios of social adaptation and behavioral change. © 2011 Perra et al. Source

Balcan D.,Lagrange Systems | Balcan D.,Indiana University Bloomington | Vespignani A.,Northeastern University | Vespignani A.,Institute for Scientific Interchange ISI
Journal of Theoretical Biology | Year: 2012

In this paper we develop a framework to analyze the behavior of contagion and spreading processes in complex subpopulation networks where individuals have memory of their subpopulation of origin. We introduce a metapopulation model in which subpopulations are connected through heterogeneous fluxes of individuals. The mobility process among communities takes into account the memory of residence of individuals and is incorporated with the classical susceptible-infectious-recovered epidemic model within each subpopulation. In order to gain analytical insight into the behavior of the system we use degree-block variables describing the heterogeneity of the subpopulation network and a time-scale separation technique for the dynamics of individuals. By considering the stochastic nature of the epidemic process we obtain the explicit expression of the global epidemic invasion threshold, below which the disease dies out before reaching a macroscopic fraction of the subpopulations. This threshold is not present in continuous deterministic diffusion models and explicitly depends on the disease parameters, the mobility rates, and the properties of the coupling matrices describing the mobility across subpopulations. The results presented here take a step further in offering insight into the fundamental mechanisms controlling the spreading of infectious diseases and other contagion processes across spatially structured communities. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. Source

Vespignani A.,Northeastern University | Vespignani A.,Institute for Scientific Interchange ISI
Nature Physics | Year: 2012

In recent years the increasing availability of computer power and informatics tools has enabled the gathering of reliable data quantifying the complexity of socio-technical systems. Data-driven computational models have emerged as appropriate tools to tackle the study of dynamical phenomena as diverse as epidemic outbreaks, information spreading and Internet packet routing. These models aim at providing a rationale for understanding the emerging tipping points and nonlinear properties that often underpin the most interesting characteristics of socio-technical systems. Here, using diffusion and contagion phenomena as prototypical examples, we review some of the recent progress in modelling dynamical processes that integrates the complex features and heterogeneities of real-world systems. Source

Mukherjee A.,Institute for Scientific Interchange ISI | Choudhury M.,Microsoft | Ganguly N.,Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications | Year: 2011

It is a well-known fact that the degree distribution (DD) of the nodes in a partition of a bipartite network influences the DD of its one-mode projection on that partition. However, there are no studies exploring the effect of the DD of the other partition on the one-mode projection. In this article, we show that the DD of the other partition, in fact, has a very strong influence on the DD of the one-mode projection. We establish this fact by deriving the exact or approximate closed-forms of the DD of the one-mode projection through the application of generating function formalism followed by the method of iterative convolution. The results are cross-validated through appropriate simulations. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Source

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