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Lenton T.M.,University of Exeter | Ciscar J.-C.,Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Climatic Change | Year: 2013

There is currently a huge gulf between natural scientists' understanding of climate tipping points and economists' representations of climate catastrophes in integrated assessment models (IAMs). In particular, there are multiple potential tipping points and they are not all low-probability events; at least one has a significant probability of being passed this century under mid-range (2-4 °C) global warming, and they cannot all be ruled out at low (<2 °C) warming. In contrast, the dominant framing of climate catastrophes in IAMs, and in critiques of them, is that they are associated with high (> 4 °C) or very high (> 8 °C) global warming. This discrepancy could qualitatively alter the predictions of IAMs, including estimates of the social cost of carbon. To address this discrepancy and assess the economic impact of crossing different climate tipping points, we highlight a list of scientific points that should be considered, at least in a stylised form, in simplified IAMs. For nine different tipping events, the range of expected physical climate impacts is summarised and some suggestions are made for how they may translate into socio-economic impacts on particular sectors or regions. We also consider how passing climate tipping points could affect economic growth. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Moncada-Paterno-Castello P.,Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Science and Public Policy | Year: 2010

Policy-makers have become increasingly aware that corporate R&D and innovation are the main drivers of an economy's competitiveness and growth. The widespread adoption of R&D targets has led researchers and analysts to pursue a deeper understanding of corporate R&D investment trends, drivers and impacts. This paper focuses on the main differences between the EU and the US in corporate R&D performance, and has three objectives: to review the literature on this subject, to introduce the papers in this special issue, and to discuss the possible implications for policy. © Beech Tree Publishing 2010.

Petrakopoulou F.,IMDEA Madrid Institute for Advanced Studies | Lara Y.,Research Center for Energy Resources and Consumption | Morosuk T.,TU Berlin | Boyano A.,Institute for Prospective Technological Studies | Tsatsaronis G.,TU Berlin
Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization and Simulation of Energy Conversion Systems and Processes, ECOS 2012 | Year: 2012

Exergy-based methods (exergetic, exergoeconomic and exergoenvironmental analyses) are powerful tools for developing, evaluating and improving energy-conversion systems. In an exergoeconomic analysis, thermodynamic inefficiencies - represented by exergy destruction - are used together with investment cost to calculate the "cost-optimal" alternative for the overall plant. Analogously, in an exergoenvironmental analysis, the aim is to reduce the total environmental impact. Normally, exergoeconomic and exergoenvironmental analyses are conducted independently of each other. Thus, until now, the improvement of a plant has been considered in terms of reduction of either costs or environmental impact. To simultaneously decrease the investment costs and the component-related (manufacturing or constructionrelated) environmental impacts, their relationship with exergy destruction must be studied in parallel. This paper examines the relationship between exergoeconomic and exergoenvironmental data under various plant operating conditions. A combined-cycle power plant is analyzed and options for a simultaneous improvement from the economic and environmental viewpoints are discussed.

Ott H.,Thuenen Institute | Ott H.,Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Journal of Agricultural Economics | Year: 2014

Intra-annual (within crop year) price volatility and inter-annual (between crop years) price volatility are measured for wheat, maize, rice, barley, oats and rye. A set of explanatory variables is used in a pooled regression to explain variations in these price volatilities. With low cereal stocks, supply (yield) shocks (defined here as volatilities, as for the price volatilities) mostly influence inter-annual volatility while other influential factors are the crude oil price and exchange rate. Cereal demand and interest rate shocks combined with low stocks affect intra-annual volatility, while other explanatory factors include exchange rate and crude oil price shocks. The derivatives market activity appears to have no significant effect on either intra- or inter-annual volatility. In contrast, large cereal stocks and a well-functioning international cereal market reduce the effects of shocks in the explanatory variables on both intra- and inter-annual volatilities. © 2014 The Agricultural Economics Society.

Saveyn H.,Ghent University | Saveyn H.,Aix - Marseille University | Saveyn H.,Institute for Prospective Technological Studies | Ferrasse J.H.,Aix - Marseille University | And 4 more authors.
Journal of Residuals Science and Technology | Year: 2011

Limited knowledge exists about the fate of inorganic components, and especially metallic species, present in sewage sludge, upon gasification. This study shows that major elements are mainly retained within the sludge char, whereas minor elements such as Cd, Pb, Zn, As and Hg are partially or completely lost due to volatilization or melting from the sludge matrix. Hence, this work stresses the importance of monitoring the metal distribution the gasification process. © 2011 DEStech Publications, Inc.

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