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Jaffe A.,Endocrinology and Diabetes Unit | Jaffe A.,Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research | Giveon S.,Tel Aviv University | Wulffhart L.,Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research | And 5 more authors.
PLoS ONE | Year: 2016

Objective Diabetes prevalence among ethnic minorities and immigrants often differs from the majority indigenous population. We compared diabetes prevalence, incidence and risk among Ethiopian and non-Ethiopian Jews. Within these main groups, we controlled for the effect of migration on diabetes risk by comparing the subgroups of Ethiopian and former Soviet Union (FSU) immigrants, and compared both with Israeli-born non-Ethiopian Jews. Methods The study cohort included adult Ethiopian (n = 8,398) and age-matched non-Ethiopian Jews (n = 15,977) and subgroups: Ethiopian immigrants (n = 7,994), FSU immigrants (n = 1,541) and Israeli-born non-Ethiopian Jews (n = 10,828). Diabetes prevalence, annual incidence, and hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for sex and metabolic syndrome (MetS)-components, were determined in three age groups (<50yrs, 50-59yrs, and 60yrs). Comparisons of body mass index (BMI) at diabetes incidence were made. Results Younger (<50yrs) Ethiopians had higher prevalence rates, 3.6% (95%CI: 3.1-4.1) and annual incidence, 0.9% (95%CI: 0.8-1.0) than non-Ethiopians, 2.7% (95%CI: 2.3-3.0) and 0.5% (95%CI: 0.4-0.6), respectively. These differences were particularly pronounced among Ethiopian women. Diabetes risk among Ethiopians was higher and adjustment for MetS-components was important only for BMI, which further increased hazard ratio (HR) estimates associated with Ethiopian ethnicity from 1.81 (95% CI:1.50-2.17) to 2.31 (95% CI:1.91-2.79). The same differences were seen when comparing Ethiopian to FSU immigrants. BMI before incident diabetes was lower among younger Ethiopian immigrants than younger FSU immigrants and Israeli-born. Conclusions Ethiopian ethnicity is associated with increased diabetes risk, which is age and BMI dependent. Young Ethiopians<50yrs, particularly women, had the greatest increase in risk. Lower BMI cut-offs should be defined to reflect diabetes risk among Ethiopians. © 2016 Jaffe et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Lukasiewicz E.,Bar - Ilan University | Gorfine M.,Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research | Neumann A.U.,Technion - Israel Institute of Technology | Freedman L.S.,Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research
Statistical Methods in Medical Research | Year: 2011

A longitudinal discriminant analysis is applied to build predictive models based on repeated measurements of serum hepatitis C virus RNA. These models are evaluated through the partial area under the receiver operating curve index (PA index) and, the final selection of the best model is based on cross-validated estimates of the PA index. Models are compared by building 95% bootstrap confidence interval for the difference in PA index between two models. Data from a randomised trial, in which chronic HCV patients were enrolled, are used to illustrate the application of the proposed method to predict treatment outcome. © The Author(s), 2011.

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