Institute for Future Studies

Stockholm, Sweden

Institute for Future Studies

Stockholm, Sweden
Time filter
Source Type

Villani A.,University of L'Aquila | Frigessi A.,University of Oslo | Liljeros F.,University of Stockholm | Liljeros F.,Institute for Future Studies | And 4 more authors.
PLoS ONE | Year: 2012

Background: The Internet has become an important venue for seeking sexual partners and may facilitate transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Methods: We examined a 64-day data log of flirt messages expressing sexual interest among MSM within the community. We used logistic regression to analyze characteristics of MSM sending and receiving flirt messages and negative binomial regression to examine individual activity and popularity. The structural properties, including the core structure of the flirt network, were analyzed. Results: The MSM population consisted of approximately 40% homosexuals and 37% bisexuals, while the remaining 23% included men who identified as heterosexual but searched for sex with men and "experimental". MSM were more likely to send flirt messages if they were homosexual and aged 40+ years; young people aged & 30 years were more likely to receive a flirt. Possession of a webcam was strongly associated with both sending flirt messages and being a flirt target. The distributions of flirts sent (max kout = 2162) and received (max kin = 84) were highly heterogeneous. Members in central cores were more likely homosexuals, singles, and aged 31-40 years. The probability of a matched flirt (flirt returned from target) increased from 1% in the outer core to 18% in the central core (core size = 4). Discussion: The flirt network showed high degree heterogeneity similar to the structural properties of real sexual contact networks with a single central core. Further studies are needed to explore use of webcam for Internet dating. © 2012 Villani et al.

Ohst J.,University of Koblenz-Landau | Liljeros F.,University of Stockholm | Liljeros F.,Institute for Future Studies | Stenhem M.,Karolinska Institutet | And 3 more authors.
EPJ Data Science | Year: 2014

We studied a dataset of care episodes in a regional Swedish hospital system. We followed how 2,314,477 patients moved between 8,507 units (hospital wards and outpatient clinics) over seven years. The data also included information on the date when patients tested positive with methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus. To simplify the complex flow of patients, we represented it as a network of units, where two units were connected if a patient moved from one unit to another, without visiting a third unit in between. From this network, we characterized the typical network position of units with a high prevalence of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus, and how the patient’s location in the network changed upon testing positive. On average, units with medium values of the analyzed centrality measures had the highest average prevalence. We saw a weak effect of the hospital system’s response to the patient testing positive - after a positive test, the patient moved to units with a lower centrality measured as degree (i.e. number of links to other units) and in addition, the average duration of the care episodes became longer. The network of units was too random to be a strong predictor of the presence of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus - would it be more regular, one could probably both identify and control outbreaks better. The migration of the positive patients with within the healthcare system, however, helps decreasing the outbreak sizes. © 2014 Ohst et al.

Backman O.,University of Stockholm | Backman O.,Institute for Future Studies | Bergmark A.,University of Stockholm | Bergmark A.,Institute for Future Studies
Journal of European Social Policy | Year: 2011

The article analyses temporal patterns in social assistance receipt in Sweden in the 2000s by looking at which circumstances facilitate versus reduce the possibilities of a person ceasing to be a recipient of social assistance. The analysis is guided by the following questions: What conditions lead people to terminate periods of social assistance receipt? Which factors are central to exits with different subsequent income patterns? How do these explain the different situations of recipients prior to termination? We focus particularly on income maintenance prior to spells of social assistance. We use event history data on monthly social assistance take-up covering the total adult Swedish population for the years 2002-2004. We adopt a gamma mixture model to control for unobserved heterogeneity. The results suggest that previous experience of both employment and social assistance receipt are important determinants for all types of exits from social assistance recipiency. A negative duration dependence is found also when unobserved heterogeneity is controlled for. © SAGE Publications 2011.

Halvarsson V.,University of Stockholm | Strom S.,University of Stockholm | Strom S.,Institute for Future Studies | Liljeros F.,University of Stockholm
Scandinavian Journal of Public Health | Year: 2012

Aims: The aim of this study is to examine the association between the prescription of oral contraceptives and the incidence of chlamydia, and between the prescription of oral contraceptives and the number of abortions in a population-based ecological study. Methods: For this study we used register data from the Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control (chlamydia incidence), the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare (number of abortions), Statistics Sweden (population data), and Apoteket (Swedish pharmacy) (prescriptions for oral contraceptives). We conducted ordinary least squares regression analysis of the association between chlamydia or abortions and the prescription of oral contraceptives. Results: The prescription of oral contraceptives has a positive association on both the incidence of chlamydia and the numbers of abortion. Our best model predicts that prescription of 100 yearly doses of oral contraceptives increase the abortions by 3.3 cases among 16-year-old women and 0.7 cases among 29-year-old women, while cases of chlamydia increase by 6.7 among 16-year-old women and 1.5 among 29-year-old women. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that the use of oral contraceptives among young people and young adults is positively associated with the chlamydia incidence and the abortion rate in these populations in Sweden. © 2011 Associations of Public Health in the Nordic Countries Regions.

Jebari K.,Institute for Future Studies
Physica Scripta | Year: 2014

Global catastrophic risk is a term that refers to the risk of the occurrence of an event that kills at least millions of people across several continents. While it has been argued by a number of scholars that one major potential risk comes from technology, the obscure nature of future technologies makes it difficult to utilize traditional probabilistic risk for the meaningful study of these risks. This article describes an alternative approach and applies it to a research program that has attracted a considerable amount of resources recently: namely longevity research. The aim of this research is to delay or reverse the ageing process. This article argues that this research program is much more risky or less beneficial than its proponents argue. In particular, they tend to underestimate the concerns associated with the potentially drastic population growth that longevity treatment could cause. The ethical benefit often ascribed to longevity treatment is that such treatment would add more subjective life-years that are worth living. However, in light of contemporary environmental problems, such an increase of the human population might be reckless. Drastically reducing fertility to reduce risks associated with environmental stress would make the benefits of such technology much less compelling. © 2014 The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

Loading Institute for Future Studies collaborators
Loading Institute for Future Studies collaborators