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Colditz R.R.,National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity CONABIO | Ressl R.A.,National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity CONABIO | Bonilla-Moheno M.,Institute for Ecology
2015 8th International Workshop on the Analysis of Multitemporal Remote Sensing Images, Multi-Temp 2015 | Year: 2015

The number of studies exploring long data records have increased in recent years and trend analysis has become a frequently-used analysis approach. This study tested parametric and non-parametric regression methods for trend estimation in MODIS NDVI data. The full record of 15 years of MODIS data from the Terra satellite was filtered to exclude clouds, shadow or other data of inferior quality from this analysis. Yearly averages and dry and wet season means were analyzed using linear least-squares and Theil-Sen regression methods. Corresponding statistical tests (F-test and Mann-Kendall test) indicated the significance of each regression model. Consistent spatial patterns were found in MODIS NDVI trend analysis which match with local knowledge and studies exploring socioeconomic, environmental and demographic factors of vegetation and land cover change in Mexico. Significant (p<0.05) positive trends in NDVI were found in the states of Chihuahua, northern Durango and Nuevo Leon due to increased woody coverage or Oaxaca due to vegetation densification. Negative trends occur in Sonora and Coahuila due to climate variability and around larger cities. Seasonal trend analysis helped interpreting and discerning anthropogenic from natural drivers. © 2015 IEEE.


Koch L.K.,Institute for Ecology | Cunze S.,Institute for Ecology | Werblow A.,Institute for Ecology | Kochmann J.,Institute for Ecology | And 3 more authors.
Parasitology Research | Year: 2016

Climatic changes raise the risk of re-emergence of arthropod-borne virus outbreaks globally. These viruses are transmitted by arthropod vectors, often mosquitoes. Due to increasing worldwide trade and tourism, these vector species are often accidentally introduced into many countries beyond their former distribution range. Aedes albopictus, a well-known disease vector, was detected for the first time in Germany in 2007, but seems to have failed establishment until today. However, the species is known to occur in other temperate regions and a risk for establishment in Germany remains, especially in the face of predicted climate change. Thus, the goal of the study was to estimate the potential distribution of Ae. albopictus in Germany. We used ecological niche modeling in order to estimate the potential habitat suitability for this species under current and projected future climatic conditions. According to our model, there are already two areas in western and southern Germany that appear suitable for Ae. albopictus under current climatic conditions. One of these areas lies in Baden-Wuerttemberg, the other in North-Rhine Westphalia in the Ruhr region. Furthermore, projections under future climatic conditions show an increase of the modeled habitat suitability throughout Germany. Ae. albopictus is supposed to be better acclimated to colder temperatures than other tropical vectors and thus, might become, triggered by climate change, a serious threat to public health in Germany. Our modeling results can help optimizing the design of monitoring programs currently in place in Germany. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.


Purcaro G.,University of Udine | Moret S.,University of Udine | Bucar-Miklavcic M.,Institute for Ecology | Conte L.S.,University of Udine
Journal of Separation Science | Year: 2012

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous compounds released in the environment by different sources. The aim of the present work was to validate a solid-phase extraction (SPE) and a rapid ultra-high performance liquid chromatographic (UHPLC) method for the analysis of PAHs in a passive environmental sampler, namely a Dacron® (the commercial name of a synthetic fiber based on polyethylene terephthalate) textile. The elution temperature was optimized to improve the resolution of early-eluted compounds, namely acenaphthene (Ac) and fluorene (F). The UHPLC method lasts about 10 min and showed good linearity for all the 16 PAHs considered, with regression coefficients over 0.99. Recoveries, limits of detection (LODs), and limits of quantification (LOQs) of the SPE method were well within the performance criteria fixed by the Regulation n. 836/2011, namely 0.3 and 0.9 μg/kg, respectively. © 2012 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.


Munster J.,Institute for Ecology | Klimpel S.,Institute for Ecology | Fock H.O.,Thuenen Institute of Sea Fisheries | MacKenzie K.,University of Aberdeen | Kuhn T.,Institute for Ecology
Parasitology Research | Year: 2015

Parasites, being an integral part of every ecosystem and trophically transmitted along the food webs, can provide detailed insights into the structure of food webs and can close the information gap between short-term stomach content analyses and long-term fish otolith analyses. They are useful for tracking ontogenetic shifts in the host’s diet, the occurrence of specific organisms or migratory behaviour of their hosts, even in inaccessible environments. In the present study, stomach content analyses and parasitological examinations were performed on 70 Atlantic cod Gadus morhua, one of the most important high-level predators of small fish in the North Atlantic, caught during one research vessel cruise from West and East Greenlandic waters. Analyses revealed significant differences in fish size with higher values for East Greenland (average total length (TL) of 50.5 cm) compared to West Greenland (average TL of 33.3 cm). Clear differences were also present in prey and parasite composition. Crustacea was the main food source for all fish (IRI = 10082.70), while the importance of teleosts increased with fish size. With a prevalence of 85 % in West Greenland and 100 % in East Greenland, Nematoda were the most abundant parasite group. The results indicate an ontogenetic shift in the diet, which are discussed in the context of the common distribution theory, stock dynamics and migratory behaviour. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.


Melaun C.,Goethe University Frankfurt | Werblow A.,Goethe University Frankfurt | Cunze S.,Institute for Ecology | Zotzmann S.,Goethe University Frankfurt | And 6 more authors.
Parasitology Research | Year: 2015

Today, international travel and global freight transportation are increasing and have a direct influence on the introduction and establishment of non-native mosquito species as well as on the spread of arthropod (mosquito)-borne diseases inside Europe. One of the mosquito species that has become invasive in many areas is the Asian rock pool or bush mosquito Ochlerotatus japonicus japonicus (synonyms: Aedes japonicus japonicus or Hulecoeteomyia japonica japonica). This species was detected in Germany in 2008 for the first time. Until today, three different Oc. j. japonicus populations have been documented. Laboratory studies have shown that Oc. j. japonicus can act as a vector for a variety of disease agents. Thus, the knowledge on its current distribution is essential for different measurements. In the present study, ecological niche models were used to estimate the potential distribution of Oc. j. japonicus in Germany. The aim was to detect areas within Germany that could potentially function as habitats for this species. According to our model, areas in western, southern, and central Germany offer suitable conditions for the mosquito and may therefore be at risk for an invasion of the species. We strongly suggest that those areas should be monitored more intensively in the future. For this purpose, it would also be essential to search for possible dispersal routes as well as for natural barriers. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.


Jungmeier M.,Klagenfurt University | Kostl T.,Institute for Ecology | Lange S.,CEO of E.C.O. Germany | Bliem M.,University of Graz
Eco.mont | Year: 2013

This article provides an overview on BRIMNockberge, a research project dedicated to the development of an integrated monitoring system aimed at displaying the performance of the Carinthian part of the newly established Biosphere Reserve (BR) Salzburger Lungau & Kärntner Nockberge. Special emphasis has been placed on compactness and slenderness in this approach. Twelve indicators have been identified that are best suited to represent the social, economic and ecological development of the region, as well as the management's performance. The whole process of developing indicators has been implemented in close collaboration and communication with local stakeholders and experts to achieve maximum public acceptance and effectiveness of the monitoring approach. A specific online database has been designed to store the collected data. It allows an easy and stringent presentation of the results. A test run was carried out within the project. Over the years, the annual collection of data will allow detecting relevant trends in the region. © E.C.O. Austria.


News Article | December 10, 2015
Site: news.mit.edu

A key concern at the Paris climate negotiations (COP21) is to find a fair, effective, and economically viable way to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in developing countries, which are expected to vastly outpace those produced in developed countries in the coming decades. One approach, adopted in previous United Nations climate summits in Copenhagen and Cancun and now implemented in Paris, is to encourage each country to craft its own climate mitigation policy based on local conditions and challenges. Another strategy, favored by many economists as the best way to reduce global emissions but politically challenging to implement, is to base each country’s contribution to international climate mitigation efforts on a “one-size-fits-all” policy such as a universal carbon price or emissions reduction target. In a study in the journal Energy Economics, researchers at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change explored the implications of establishing uniform emissions reduction policies in Brazil and Mexico, which have the two largest economies in Latin America and are well-positioned to engage the developing world in climate negotiations. Using the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to determine the economic impact of several climate policy scenarios on Brazil and Mexico between 2020 and 2050, they showed that imposing the same carbon prices or GHG emissions targets on each country would cost about twice as much in Mexico as in Brazil. In Mexico, the largest contributor to GHG emissions is the energy sector; in Brazil, it’s the agriculture sector. Due to differences in energy and land use emissions sources, the same climate policies cost much higher in Mexico under scenarios ranging from extending existing commitments made in Copenhagen and Cancun to 2050, to a more stringent policy aimed at halving all GHGs by 2050 relative to 2010 levels. In the latter scenario, GDP losses between 2020 and 2050 range from 4 percent to 11 percent for Mexico and 0 percent to 4 percent for Brazil. These findings highlight the need for climate policies that account for individual countries’ natural resources, emissions profiles, and economic structures. Even among countries at similar levels of economic development such as Brazil and Mexico, GHG mitigation efforts come with significantly different costs and benefits that cannot be glossed over in a one-size-fits-all policy. “We expect our research to assist in international climate negotiations and policy design by better explaining the costs and conditions that influence different countries’ positions,” says the study’s lead author, Claudia Octaviano, a recent Joint Program postdoc who now serves as general coordinator for climate change and low-carbon development at the National Institute for Ecology and Climate Change of Mexico. “This type of analysis may also assist developing countries in crafting appropriate mitigation actions by comparing the implications of proposed policies with other countries.” To produce their findings, Octaviano and her co-authors — Joint Program Deputy Director Sergey Paltsev and research associate Angelo Gurgel — updated the EPPA model to incorporate the most recent emissions inventories in Mexico and Brazil, and key national initiatives such as Brazil’s policy to reduce deforestation. Policy scenarios were developed by the Latin America Modeling Project and the Integrated Climate Modeling and Capacity Building Project in Latin America. The EPPA model allowed for a comprehensive analysis of all sectors of the global economy and all GHGs, providing a one-stop-shop for policy design and comparison. “Because we represent the global economy in a single framework, we can capture responses that other models ignore, including the trade implications of climate policy,” Octaviano explains. “We also have the capability to consider changes in land use, allowing us to model Brazil’s deforestation policy within the same framework.” The study was funded by the Mario Molina Center, the National Council for Science and Technology of Mexico, the National Council for Research of Brazil, the European Union and sponsors of the MIT Joint Program.


News Article | December 11, 2015
Site: www.theenergycollective.com

Study shows significant differences in costs associated with curbing greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil and Mexico. Mark Dwortzan | MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change A key concern at the Paris climate negotiations (COP21) is to find a fair, effective, and economically viable way to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in developing countries, which are expected to vastly outpace those produced in developed countries in the coming decades. One approach, adopted in previous United Nations climate summits in Copenhagen and Cancun and now implemented in Paris, is to encourage each country to craft its own climate mitigation policy based on local conditions and challenges. Another strategy, favored by many economists as the best way to reduce global emissions but politically challenging to implement, is to base each country’s contribution to international climate mitigation efforts on a “one-size-fits-all” policy such as a universal carbon price or emissions reduction target. In a study in the journal Energy Economics, researchers at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change explored the implications of establishing uniform emissions reduction policies in Brazil and Mexico, which have the two largest economies in Latin America and are well-positioned to engage the developing world in climate negotiations. Using the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to determine the economic impact of several climate policy scenarios on Brazil and Mexico between 2020 and 2050, they showed that imposing the same carbon prices or GHG emissions targets on each country would cost about twice as much in Mexico as in Brazil. In Mexico, the largest contributor to GHG emissions is the energy sector; in Brazil, it’s the agriculture sector. Due to differences in energy and land use emissions sources, the same climate policies cost much higher in Mexico under scenarios ranging from extending existing commitments made in Copenhagen and Cancun to 2050, to a more stringent policy aimed at halving all GHGs by 2050 relative to 2010 levels. In the latter scenario, GDP losses between 2020 and 2050 range from 4 percent to 11 percent for Mexico and 0 percent to 4 percent for Brazil. These findings highlight the need for climate policies that account for individual countries’ natural resources, emissions profiles, and economic structures. Even among countries at similar levels of economic development such as Brazil and Mexico, GHG mitigation efforts come with significantly different costs and benefits that cannot be glossed over in a one-size-fits-all policy. “We expect our research to assist in international climate negotiations and policy design by better explaining the costs and conditions that influence different countries’ positions,” says the study’s lead author, Claudia Octaviano, a recent Joint Program postdoc who now serves as general coordinator for climate change and low-carbon development at the National Institute for Ecology and Climate Change of Mexico. “This type of analysis may also assist developing countries in crafting appropriate mitigation actions by comparing the implications of proposed policies with other countries.” To produce their findings, Octaviano and her co-authors — Joint Program Deputy Director Sergey Paltsev and research associate Angelo Gurgel — updated the EPPA model to incorporate the most recent emissions inventories in Mexico and Brazil, and key national initiatives such as Brazil’s policy to reduce deforestation. Policy scenarios were developed by the Latin America Modeling Project and the Integrated Climate Modeling and Capacity Building Project in Latin America. The EPPA model allowed for a comprehensive analysis of all sectors of the global economy and all GHGs, providing a one-stop-shop for policy design and comparison. “Because we represent the global economy in a single framework, we can capture responses that other models ignore, including the trade implications of climate policy,” Octaviano explains. “We also have the capability to consider changes in land use, allowing us to model Brazil’s deforestation policy within the same framework.” The study was funded by the Mario Molina Center, the National Council for Science and Technology of Mexico, the National Council for Research of Brazil, the European Union and sponsors of the MIT Joint Program.

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