Institute for Applied Economic Research IPEA

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Institute for Applied Economic Research IPEA

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Cunha B.Q.,Federal University of Rio de Janeiro | Pereira A.K.,Federal University of Goais | Gomide A.D.A.,Institute for Applied Economic Research IPEA
Utilities Policy | Year: 2017

Different interest groups play a role in regulatory governance. One frequently neglected is the group of professionals that run regulatory agencies and pursue regulatory goals. The objective of this paper is to give "regulocrats" center stage. It interprets data from a survey conducted by Brazilian institutions, shedding light on the major preferences of the "regulocrats", and on how they go about implementing policy and interacting with other actors. Data is combined with a state capacity perspective so as to elaborate on the findings. The paper concludes by articulating an idea of a particular kind of hybridism in the Brazilian "regulocracy". © 2017 Elsevier Ltd.

Reis E.J.,Institute for Applied Economic Research IPEA | Vale P.M.,CAPES Foundation
Global Environmental Change | Year: 2015

We revisit the long-standing hypothesis that the process of human development and land clearing in Amazonia follows a boom-and-bust (inverted U) pattern, where early clearing leads to a socioeconomic 'boom' which then turns to 'bust' after the deforestation process has matured. Although the hypothesis has found some empirical support in cross sectional data, a handful of longitudinal case studies have failed to identify incidences of 'busts'. We show that the cross sectional results are a spurious artifact of spatial correlation, driven primarily by the large, multifaceted (and unobserved) differences between municipalities in the states of Amazonas and Maranhão. Furthermore, using new panel data on the Human Development Index (HDI) and deforestation rates from 1991 to 2010 we find no evidence of such boom-bust patterns in the time series. Municipalities categorized as either 'post-frontier' or 'pre-frontier' in 2000 enjoyed equal increases in HDI over the subsequent decade as the rest of the Amazon. Panel data analysis with fixed effects (within estimation) robustly rejects the hypothesis that HDI and deforestation follow an inverted-U relationship. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

Trotter I.M.,Federal University of Viçosa | da Cunha D.A.,Federal University of Viçosa | Feres J.G.,Institute for Applied Economic Research IPEA
Ecological Economics | Year: 2015

This study explores the relationship between key characteristics of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects and Certified Emission Reduction (CER) prices. Using Multiple Correspondence Analysis, we show that the CER credit prices are likely to have had a greater influence than regional levels of economic development on the sectors, regions and sizes of CDM projects. There are comparatively few CDM projects in Sub-Saharan Africa (less South Africa) and the small-scale forestation projects that are characteristic for the region mainly entered the CDM pipeline when CER credit price levels were high. Latin America hosts a larger number of projects, and the small-scale methane, biofuel and hydro projects that are typical for this region generally also applied for validation under high CER price levels. The large industrial gas and energy efficiency projects typical for the Middle East/Northern Africa region appear to have been largely insensitive to CER price levels. The large number and variety of projects in Asia have applied for registration under a broad range of CER price levels. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.

Trotter I.M.,Federal University of Viçosa | Bolkesjo T.F.,Norwegian University of Life Sciences | Feres J.G.,Institute for Applied Economic Research IPEA
Energy | Year: 2016

We present a framework for incorporating weather uncertainty into electricity demand forecasting when weather patterns cannot be assumed to be stable, such as in climate change scenarios. This is done by first calibrating an econometric model for electricity demand on historical data, and subsequently applying the model to a large number of simulated weather paths, together with projections for the remaining determinants. Simulated weather paths are generated based on output from a global circulation model, using a method that preserves the trend and annual seasonality of the first and second moments, as well as the spatial and serial correlations. The application of the framework is demonstrated by creating long-term, probabilistic electricity demand forecasts for Brazil for the period 2016-2100 that incorporates weather uncertainty for three climate change scenarios. All three scenarios indicate steady growth in annual average electricity demand until reaching a peak of approximately 1071-1200 TWh in 2060, then subsequently a decline, largely reflecting the trajectory of the population projections. The weather uncertainty in all scenarios is significant, with up to 400 TWh separating the 10th and the 90th percentiles, or approximately ±17% relative to the mean. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd.

Santos B.Z.,Centro Universitario Franciscano | da Fontoura Motta H.,Centro Universitario Franciscano | Dalpian D.M.,Centro Universitario Franciscano | Garcia L.P.,Institute for Applied Economic Research IPEA
Pesquisa Brasileira em Odontopediatria e Clinica Integrada | Year: 2014

Objective: To analyze the access and use of dental services among 6-to-12-year-old children in Brazil. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted based on micro-data from the National Household Sample Survey carried out by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics in 2008. A total of 48,854 children were included and confidence intervals of 99% (CI 99%) were considered for the prevalence rates of the outcomes. The statistical significance of differences was analyzed using these intervals, level of 1%. Results: A total of 79.3% (CI 99%: 79.3%-79.3%) of children had been to the dentist at least once in their lives. A total of 62.1% (99% CI: 62.1%-62.1%) of children from families earning up to one quarter the monthly per capita household income and 95.5% (99% CI: 95.4-95.5) of those from families earning two or more times the minimum wage were among the 25,161 children that had been to the dentist in the previous year. Regarding region of residence, 68.2% (CI 99%: 68.2%-68.2%) of children from the northeastern region of the country and 89.5% (CI 99%: 89.5%-89.6%) of those from the southern region had been to the dentist. Conclusion: A considerable number of Brazilian children had never been to the dentist by the year 2008. In addition, individuals living in the southern region and from families with greater monthly household income were among those who had already been to the dentist. These data provide evidence for guiding public policies and actions aimed at minimizing the lack of dental follow up among Brazilian children. © 2014, Association of Support to Oral Health Research (APESB). All rights reserved.

Pereira R.H.M.,Institute for Applied Economic Research Ipea | Nadalin V.,Institute for Applied Economic Research Ipea | Monasterio L.,Institute for Applied Economic Research Ipea | Monasterio L.,Catholic University of Brasília | And 2 more authors.
Geographical Analysis | Year: 2013

This study introduces a new measure of urban centrality. The proposed urban centrality index (UCI) constitutes an extension to the spatial separation index. Urban structure should be more accurately analyzed when considering a centrality scale (varying from extreme monocentricity to extreme polycentricity) than when considering a binary variable (monocentric or polycentric). The proposed index controls for differences in size and shape of the geographic areas for which data are available, and can be calculated using different variables such as employment and population densities, or trip generation rates. The properties of the index are illustrated with simulated artificial data sets and are compared with other similar measures proposed in the existing literature. The index is then applied to the urban structure of four metropolitan areas: Pittsburgh and Los Angeles in the United States; São Paulo, Brazil; and Paris, France. The index is compared with other traditional spatial agglomeration measures, such as global and local Moran's I, and density gradient estimations. El presente estudio introduce una nueva medida de centralidad. El índice de centralidad urbana propuesto (UCI, por sus siglas en inglés) es una extensión al índice de separación espacial (spatial separation index)(Midelfart-Knarvik et al. 2000). El análisis de la estructura urbana resulta más preciso al usar el índice cuando se toma en cuenta una escala de continua de centralidad (que puede variar de un monocentrismo extremo a un policentrismo extremo) que cuando se considera una variable binaria (monocéntrica o policéntrica). © 2012.

Amiel T.,University of Campinas | Kubota L.C.,Institute for Applied Economic Research IPEA | Wives W.W.,Institute for Applied Economic Research IPEA
Research in Learning Technology | Year: 2016

School technology integration rarely begins with school or educator choice. It is part of a wider context where external and internal factors have direct influence on the goals and tools that are adopted over time. The objective of this study is to investigate the systemic conditions that contribute or inhibit the development of different activities by teachers making use of new media. We compiled a list of wellknown conditions for technology integration success and mapped these in the historical and culturally bound perspective of activity theory (cultural historical activity theory). We conducted a multiple case study analysis of four schools, public and private. The results point to unique and distinctive scenarios even when homogeneity would be expected, reinforcing the argument that material conditions do not determine pedagogical outcomes nor do they determine changes in practice. Beyond this, the study proposes a methodology that can help elicit tensions in technology integration, pointing to avenues for school development. © 2016 T. Amiel et al.

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