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Greitzer F.L.,PsyberAnalytix | Imran M.,George Mason University | Purl J.,Human Resources Research Organization | Axelrad E.T.,Innovative Decisions, Inc. | And 4 more authors.
CEUR Workshop Proceedings | Year: 2016

Human behavioral factors are fundamental to understanding, detecting and mitigating insider threats, but to date insufficiently represented in a formal ontology. We report on the design and development of an ontology that emphasizes individual and organizational sociotechnical factors, and incorporates technical indicators from previous work. We compare our ontology with previous research and describe use cases to demonstrate how the ontology may be applied. Our work advances current efforts toward development of a comprehensive knowledge base to support advanced reasoning for insider threat mitigation. © 2016, CEUR-WS. All rights reserved.


Davis L.J.,George Mason University | Saunders C.P.,George Mason University | Hepler A.,George Mason University | Hepler A.,Innovative Decisions, Inc.
Forensic Science International | Year: 2012

The likelihood ratio paradigm has been studied as a means for quantifying the strength of evidence for a variety of forensic evidence types. Although the concept of a likelihood ratio as a comparison of the plausibility of evidence under two propositions (or hypotheses) is straightforward, a number of issues arise when one considers how to go about estimating a likelihood ratio. In this paper, we illustrate one possible approach to estimating a likelihood ratio in comparative handwriting analysis. The novelty of our proposed approach relies on generating simulated writing samples from a collection of writing samples from a known source to form a database for estimating the distribution associated with the numerator of a likelihood ratio. We illustrate this approach using documents collected from 432 writers under controlled conditions. © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.


PubMed | Innovative Decisions, Inc., Pennsylvania State University, University of South Australia, University of Edinburgh and 14 more.
Type: | Journal: Forensic science international | Year: 2016

This letter comments on the report Forensic science in criminal courts: Ensuring scientific validity of feature-comparison methods recently released by the Presidents Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST). The report advocates a procedure for evaluation of forensic evidence that is a two-stage procedure in which the first stage is match/non-match and the second stage is empirical assessment of sensitivity (correct acceptance) and false alarm (false acceptance) rates. Almost always, quantitative data from feature-comparison methods are continuously-valued and have within-source variability. We explain why a two-stage procedure is not appropriate for this type of data, and recommend use of statistical procedures which are appropriate.


Merrick J.,Virginia Commonwealth University | Parnell G.S.,U.S. Military Academy | Parnell G.S.,Innovative Decisions, Inc.
Risk Analysis | Year: 2011

In counterterrorism risk management decisions, the analyst can choose to represent terrorist decisions as defender uncertainties or as attacker decisions. We perform a comparative analysis of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods including event trees, influence diagrams, Bayesian networks, decision trees, game theory, and combined methods on the same illustrative examples(container screening for radiological materials)to get insights into the significant differences in assumptions and results. A key tenent of PRA and decision analysis is the use of subjective probability to assess the likelihood of possible outcomes. For each technique, we compare the assumptions, probability assessment requirements, risk levels, and potential insights for risk managers. We find that assessing the distribution of potential attacker decisions is a complex judgment task, particularly considering the adaptation of the attacker to defender decisions. Intelligent adversary risk analysis and adversarial risk analysis are extensions of decision analysis and sequential game theory that help to decompose such judgments. These techniques explicitly show the adaptation of the attacker and the resulting shift in risk based on defender decisions. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.


Buede D.M.,Innovative Decisions, Inc. | Sticha P.J.,Human Resources Research Organization | Axelrad E.T.,Sandia National Laboratories
Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics) | Year: 2016

This paper describes an implementation of Dynamic Decision Networks for the creation of an intelligent Non-Player Character (NPC) in a virtual training system. The NPC was required to interact in a text-based system with a trainee to respond as a villager would with helpful information, evasive responses or lies. The NPC was also required to assume a range of personalities that one might find in a foreign village. Our approach proved successful and includes a number of important characteristics that should be considered for future intelligent agents. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016.


Miller W.D.,Innovative Decisions, Inc.
CrossTalk | Year: 2012

The practice of cyber security appears to be predominantly a game of Whac-A-Mole, and the moles are winning! Systems are designed and deployed with security such as it is, grafted on, and the standard response to adversarial attacks is to continually patch the IT and burden humans with process and passwords. We must learn to think systemically to seek advantage, or at least maintain parity over adversarial threats, as our infrastructure becomes more complexly integrated.


Becker W.W.,Salutary Technology Inc. | Chinnis J.O.,Innovative Decisions, Inc.
MTS/IEEE Seattle, OCEANS 2010 | Year: 2010

The primary purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that a range of proposed government actions can and often should be evaluated in a way that includes their effects on personal freedoms. This is illustrated in the case of efforts directed toward recreational boating safety in the United States, and evolves from a multi-year study to recommend the composition of an appropriate risk management system for that subject. The proposed system seeks to determine best safety/security decisions, in a way that reflects Community roles, values and resources, and that includes effects on "freedom" in the calculus of costs and benefits associated with alternative actions. Its extension to Regional Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning is discussed. There were 738 reported deaths in U.S. recreational boating accidents in 2009. There is a community interested in preventing boating accidents that includes the U. S. Coast Guard, agencies of each of the States and many localities, various non-profits and interest groups, and, of course, boaters themselves. The ethos of boating and related law are such that proponents for imposed safety measures, including boat and operator requirements and restrictions, must take into account the discretionary nature of this activity. Thus, the question, familiar in U.S. public decision-making, is how best to balance and apportion the risks, costs and changes in participant enjoyment or freedom to act connected with choices that might be made to enhance safety. This paper describes a proposed risk management system the development of which took place over a ten year period by a varied group of participants under a grant to the Marine Safety Foundation. The proposed system recognizes that any policy analysis must consider multiple objectives for different stakeholder groups. It is intentional in incorporating the views, values and resources of Community members in its analyses of proposals for safety actions. It is also intentional about incorporating "freedom" as a value in play, (along with the costs to different parties and changes in risk/safety that might result,) in the quantitative analysis of its choices for safety interventions. Thus, these risk management guidelines comprise a structure of values reflecting U. S. political outlook, group relational elements, analytical processes and critical characteristics of its subject. As presented in its final report, published last winter, it includes a computer-enabled process, (developed by participants from Innovative Decisions, Inc.,) to weigh changes in risk, cost and "freedom" connected with proposed safety options. This model for an integrating framework incorporates probabilistic risk analysis, value-focused thinking for examining critical tradeoffs using multi-attribute utility analysis, and analysis of alternatives across multiple stake holders and boating classes. An in-depth analysis of the human-error causes of fatal boating accidents was also performed during the course of this project. It points out the most serious accident causes, which are seen to vary across different boat types, and provides another basis for identifying needed safety interventions. The outlook and approach developed in the course of this project are useful in a wide range of government decisions where actions intended to provide security or other aspects of the "greater good" demand a balance of rights and obligations among multiple stakeholders with different values, helping to rationalize the essential give-and-take of our political process.1 ©2010 IEEE.


Parnell G.S.,United States Military Academy | Parnell G.S.,Innovative Decisions, Inc. | Smith C.M.,United States Military Academy | Moxley F.I.,United States Military Academy
Risk Analysis | Year: 2010

The tragic events of 9/11 and the concerns about the potential for a terrorist or hostile state attack with weapons of mass destruction have led to an increased emphasis on risk analysis for homeland security. Uncertain hazards (natural and engineering) have been successfully analyzed using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Unlike uncertain hazards, terrorists and hostile states are intelligent adversaries who can observe our vulnerabilities and dynamically adapt their plans and actions to achieve their objectives. This article compares uncertain hazard risk analysis with intelligent adversary risk analysis, describes the intelligent adversary risk analysis challenges, and presents a probabilistic defender-attacker-defender model to evaluate the baseline risk and the potential risk reduction provided by defender investments. The model includes defender decisions prior to an attack; attacker decisions during the attack; defender actions after an attack; and the uncertainties of attack implementation, detection, and consequences. The risk management model is demonstrated with an illustrative bioterrorism problem with notional data. © 2009 Society for Risk Analysis.


Buede D.M.,Innovative Decisions, Inc. | Mahoney S.,Innovative Decisions, Inc. | Ezell B.,Innovative Decisions, Inc. | Lathrop J.,Innovative Decisions, Inc.
Reliability Engineering and System Safety | Year: 2012

Incorporating an appropriate representation of the likelihood of terrorist decision outcomes into risk assessments associated with weapons of mass destruction attacks has been a significant problem for countries around the world. Developing these likelihoods gets at the heart of the most difficult predictive problems: human decision making, adaptive adversaries, and adversaries about which very little is known. A plural modeling approach is proposed that incorporates estimates of all critical uncertainties: who is the adversary and what skills and resources are available to him, what information is known to the adversary and what perceptions of the important facts are held by this group or individual, what does the adversary know about the countermeasure actions taken by the government in question, what are the adversary's objectives and the priorities of those objectives, what would trigger the adversary to start an attack and what kind of success does the adversary desire, how realistic is the adversary in estimating the success of an attack, how does the adversary make a decision and what type of model best predicts this decision-making process. A computational framework is defined to aggregate the predictions from a suite of models, based on this broad array of uncertainties. A validation approach is described that deals with a significant scarcity of data. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.


Grant
Agency: Department of Defense | Branch: Army | Program: SBIR | Phase: Phase I | Award Amount: 99.92K | Year: 2014

The next generation of virtual training applications for the Army needs to support training at the company or battalion level with corresponding increases to the operational area and level of complexity. Current simulation-based virtual environment training applications are capped at 40 participants or less due to the inability of systems resources to handle a larger number of concurrent users. This also means that there are limited system resources left over to accommodate larger operational areas and realistic levels of complexity. This severely limits the operational relevance of virtual training for many training scenarios. This research will provide designs, performance benchmarks, and a prototype of a generalized non-relational database management system for a virtual environment training application. Such a database design will attempt to overcome weaknesses of traditional relational databases and allow for hundreds or thousands of concurrent participants while preserving resources for increased operational areas and complexity. The dynamic schema of non-relational databases will also provide benefits such as faster application development, more reliable code integration, and continuous availability.

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