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Amanatidou E.,University of Manchester | Butter M.,TNO | Carabias V.,EU DG JRC IPTS | Carabias V.,ZHAW Zurich University of Applied Sciences | And 5 more authors.
Science and Public Policy

Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action which will help to better prepare policy- and decision-makers in today's complex and inter-dependent environments. This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues project. A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation the needs of policy-makers if they are to identify areas in which policy needs to be formulated. This paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. At the same time, there are certain issues which characterise horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. Source

Weber K.M.,AIT Austrian Institute of Technology | Harper J.C.,KKR | Konnola T.,Impetu Solutions | Barcelo V.C.,ZHAW Zurich University of Applied Sciences
Science and Public Policy

Transformations linked to disruptive events are causing a shift in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) activities from individual large-scale foresight actions to smaller in-house exercises and capacity building. The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations. This paper identifies three ideal types: external FTA services, the institutionalisation of FTA, and FTA networks, whilst recognising that in practice these types are complementary. In empirical terms this requires further investigation, in order to understand how different combinations of activities actually operate in their respective decision-making contexts. It is important to improve our understanding of how far institutionalised FTA can form part of customised solutions for building capacity to handle disruptions. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. Source

Konnola T.,Impetu Solutions | Haegeman K.,European Commission
Science and Public Policy

The complexity of transnational research programming and the requisite large-scale stakeholder engagement set a major managerial challenge: how to prepare, run and evaluate such activities in an effective, efficient and appropriate as well as transparent, open and inclusive manner. To address such co-ordination challenges we specify dimensions of transnational, vertical, horizontal and temporal co-ordination and apply them to three cases of foresight processes in connection with transnational research programming. This provides some evidence on a potentially significant role for foresight in facilitating and integrating different functions of programming but also shows major challenges in foresight design and management, which we address by way of elaborating guiding foresight principles of scalability, modularity and flexibility. We also consider the potential role of foresight in joint programming in Europe and in transnational research programming elsewhere. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. Source

Schreier G.,AIT Austrian Institute of Technology | Amanatidou E.,University of Manchester | Heller-Schuh B.,AIT Austrian Institute of Technology | Giesecke S.,AIT Austrian Institute of Technology | And 4 more authors.
Studies in Health Technology and Informatics

Personal Health Systems (PHS) open new ways of providing continuous, quality controlled and personalized health services to empowered individuals and require the emergence of novel cross-disciplinary innovation partnerships. We analyzed the European PHS research and innovation landscape with the ultimate goal of a better understanding of mismatches between the potential of, and need for, PHS. The results of network analysis indicate a dynamic but fragmented PHS innovation landscape in Europe. In addition to excellent technological solutions, PHS implementation also needs a multi-stakeholder process of service system innovation to reach ambitious aims in the future. © 2014 The authors and IOS Press. All rights reserved. Source

Konnola T.,Impetu Solutions | Salo A.,Aalto University | Cagnin C.,EU DG JRC IPTS | Cagnin C.,Center for Strategic Studies and Management | And 3 more authors.
Science and Public Policy

In this paper, we discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, particularly in the light of the foresight exercise 'Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges' which was carried out for the Bureau of European Policy Advisors. This exercise illustrates how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues; the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters; and the interpretation of resulting clusters as an important step towards the coordinated development of joint policy measures. In order to achieve such objectives, horizon scanning can benefit from methods of multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis for prioritizing, clustering and combining issues. Furthermore, these methods provide support for traceability, which in turn contributes to the enhanced transparency and legitimacy of foresight. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. Source

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