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Warsaw, Poland

The atmospheric low is the relatively durable structure. He keeps his spiral arms almost like solid body. This allows to model this structure as the settled movement. The rotated durable structure are connected with the fact that the kinematics of the core in the depression is characterizes the linear dependence of the orbital speed from the distance from his center. The well well-known gradient wind balance is the model of the vortex but generalized by the addition component of radial movement arise from resistances of the movement.

The study by Eugeniusz Romer presented here is based on materials from the years 1871-1890. It was first published in 1910 in Switzerland in French and was recited by climatologists with great interest. In Polish, it was first published in 1912 in Polish Encyclopedia (Encyklopedia Polska), titled The Climate of Polish Lands (Klimat ziem polskich). The study, which was central to Polish climatology, identified Polish climate zones and also proved the existence of Polish climate. The climate zones were defined on the basis of air temperature, and especially isotherms reduced to sea level. In his paper, Romer refutes the thesis that Polish climate is an intermediate one between the oceanic west and the continental east of Europe. The existence of the Polish climate was confirmed by de Martonne, one of the most outstanding French geographers. He included this climate type in the overall classification of the Earth's climate varieties and found its counterparts in the borderland between US and Canada, as well in Siberia, in the southern part of Outer Manchuria.

The maximum absolute is the greatest observation of finite size sample. This subtracted quantity is not a constant value. The next value of the absolute extreme, if it occurs, may belongs to the general population of the current climate or to herald the climate change. Notion of absolute maximum has been interpreted as last order statistics for a sample. It was showed how the empirical probability distribution changed with increased N - year maximum definition of trial sample. The Type III maximum value distribution was used to illustrate the asymptotic approaching of greatest measured values to upper bound of meteorological element. An important element of climate is the maximum rainfall causing flooding and floods. The properties of order statistics and asymptotic properties for the daily rainfall at the point and spatial layout was presented.

Koziel S.R.,IMGW
Przeglad Geofizyczny | Year: 2010

It is possible to treat weather forecast uncertainty as uncertainty of measurements. The hydrometeorological measurement is made by the definite device with known accuracy of the measurement. In hydro-meteorological practice the measurement is a single, unique action. It is not possible to repeat the measurement, because it would be made in different state of the environment. Every method of weather forecast may be considered as a result of some kind of measurement of the future system state - weather. Hence, every method of forecast may be treated as a kind of an indirect measurement device. In practice, when results of different models are available, some problems appear - how to interpret jointly their results. It is shown that for many simultaneous forecasts the applied procedure can be analogous to the procedure used when physical measurements consist of several values, like in a statistical sample. In practice forecast accuracy of every model is defined as a variance of forecasts error. So, the situation is analogous to the problem of "constant value" estimation, known in the BLUE theory. When individual forecasts are correlated the weighed averaging method can also be applied, as well as when it is attributed to subjective weight of individual forecasts.

Koziel S.R.,IMGW
Przeglad Geofizyczny | Year: 2010

The term "mathematicity of climate " refers to the idea of mathematical aspect of nature, being in the centre of the interest both mathematics itself, philosophy and the methodology of the science. Analysis of the semantic question why nature, in this climate, is a mathematical must lead to the conclusion that in both cases it is a metaphysical overtones. However mathematicity of the climate is the problem of the applicability of mathematical methods themselves. According to the common definition climate is an invariant measure on the attractor. It is a strange attractor, whose dynamics is chaotic and the system is not predictable. This is the property of the physics of the climate, because atraktor himself is the mathematical notion. We are only just able to examine the properties of equations, with a conviction that they are sufficiently close approximation of the actual model, the infinite phase space. The task of modeling both the weather and the climate becomes almost metaphysical. Not enough this, we are in the fractal space equations of models assume the real numbers without possibility of correct initial conditions. And these are not available, not only in the act of measurement but also in the process of computing. Elementary fact in the climate system is an event - the occurrence of the phenomenon: a meteor or hydrometeor. If, however, meteorology and hydrology deal with the physics of the phenomena it describes the climatology rather their repeatability. In practice, studies climatological events in the environment are called random, but they cannot identify. In fact, they are always events in the physical sense, and would require the establishment some probability measure on attractor. One such probabilistic measure can not a priori however know. The interpretation can have the exclusively descriptive character: exactly n the event stepped out in the period of instrumental measurements times.

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