Kraków, Poland
Kraków, Poland

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Malik A.,Instytut Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energia PAN | Kaminski J.,IGSMiE PAN | Kaszynski P.,Instytut Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energia PAN
Rynek Energii | Year: 2016

Various factors had an impact on the Ukrainian electricity market in recent years, affecting the patterns of electricity production and consumption. Demand decrease in the early nineties, related to the separation from the Soviet Union, the economic crisis that influenced the country in 2009 and the recent political and armed conflict in the eastern part of the country are of key importance. Furthermore, Kiev's efforts to join the European Union, which enforce the subordination of the national energy policy to EU regulations, are equally important. Significant part of electricity is produced in Ukrainian conventional power plants, which, like the transmission infrastructure, are already age-advanced. This paper is an attempt to analyze past results and the current situation in the Ukrainian energy market. It analyses installed capacity, electricity production and consumption. The last part of the paper draws attention to the key challenges, that the sector will face in the future, in the terms of the implementation of the Energy Strategy.

Pietrzyk-Sokulska E.,Polish Academy of Sciences | Uberman R.,IGSMiE PAN | Kulczycka J.,Academy of Mining and Metallurgy of Poland
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi / Mineral Resources Management | Year: 2015

Mining is always connected with interference in the environment, especially with the landscape, hydrosphere and atmosphere. The increasing requirements of environmental standards in Europe influence actions taken by the mining industry, which leads to minimization of impact during exploration, exploitation, processing and use of rawmaterials and waste.Moreover,mining companies often compensate the environment transformations via the processes of reclamation and adequately chosen directions of further adaptation. New post-mining areas are characterized, in many cases, by higher values than before the commencement of mining works. The problem is still the depletion of non-renewable raw materials. This can be minimized by rational resource management and also by the effective use, recovery, recycling and substituting of minerals. These actions will have an impact not only on the extension of the operation of existing plants, but will also diminish the areas needed for extraction of new deposits. In the paper, the transformations taking place in the mining industry in Poland, as well as myths and threats connected with its further development were pointed out. The actions by this industrial branch which lead to minimization of the pressure on the environment and the applied reclamation were also shown. © Instytut Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energia Polskiej Akademii Nauk 2013.

Improving energy efficiency remains one of the main objectives of the Polish energy policy. The paper presents the results of an analysis of the potential for energy efficiency savings in the Polish housing sector. The matrix of representative groups of buildings (4 groups - single-family houses, multi-family houses, up to eight floor- and above eight floor-blocks of flats) was applied. The analysis covers a period of 2012-2030 and is based on the assumption that a constant seasonal decrease in demand for heat in already existing building will be maintained. For newly constructed buildings the demand for heat will be at the level of energy-efficient buildings. The results of the analysis carried out within this study positively validate the instruments introduced to improve energy efficiency in the Polish housing sector.

Szurlej A.,AGH W Krakowie | Kaminski J.,IGSMiE PAN | Suwala W.,AGH W Krakowie
Rynek Energii | Year: 2014

The European Union systematically strives to create the competitive natural gas market. In Poland, since July 1, 2007, the freedom of choice and change of the seller is entitled to all customers of electricity and natural gas, including households. In accordance with Energy Law, end users may individually benefit from the local network in order to purchase gas or electricity supplied from any vendor. Although the regulations for several years now allow the exercise of the TPA rule, in fact, only in the last years there has been a growing interest in this possibility. This paper describes the domestic natural gas market, with particular emphasis being brought to changes in the implementation of competition in the market. As a basic measure the number of changes of gas supplier was proposed. In some aspects, progress in the liberalisation of the gas market was compared to the electricity market, which is much more advanced in this aspect. In addition, the pace of liberalisation of the gas and electricity markets in Poland was compared with selected markets of EU member states, with the employment of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. The estimated impact of liberalisation on changes in price levels between countries was also discussed. The regulatory environment is very important for the intensification of efforts to liberalise fuels and energy markets.

Saluga P.W.,AGH University of Science and Technology | Zamasz K.,Wyzsza Szkola Biznesu w Dabrowie Gorniczej | Kaminski J.,IGSMiE PAN
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi / Mineral Resources Management | Year: 2015

For many years, real options analysis (ROA) has been perceived as an attractive project valuation alternative to the traditional discounted cash flow analysis (DCF). Right now, one can see evidence of a growing dispersion in the applicability of the method among various industries (particularly minerals, coal, gas and petroleum) and the banking sector. This is because of its potential to value managerial flexibility including possibilities for delaying investments or reformulating the operating strategies of the company. The real option approach enables one to calculate a project’s fundamental value in approximating the market one. The basis of option theory is stochastic modeling of underlying assets - the preferred, commonly used ROA methodology, introduced by Copeland and Antikarov (2001), is called the MAD (marketed asset disclaimer) approach. It assumes that an underlying asset, which is the (gross) present value of the project (PV), changes with time according to the multiplicative stochastic process derived as discrete binomial approximation of geometric Brownian motion (GBM). In addition, the MAD assumes, that a twin asset of the underlying instrument is calculated in a common way net present value (NPV). The twin-asset assumption fulfills the theoretical criteria required for fair option valuation in no-arbitrage conditions. The paper delivers empirical arguments arguing that indirect modeling of PVs, according to the standard stochastic process, do not properly reflect reality. The calculations were based on the valuation of a hard coal project with flexibility - the methodology has included multiplicative price modeling (that parameter has served as so called ‘referential asset’) and, consequently, built a consecutive PVs tree, where respective present values have been adjusted by referential price levels. Moreover, the paper has emphasized that the option-to-wait changes the structure of project’s cash flow and PV trees, depending on the waiting period. In conclusion, the arguments have been derived from the consecutive modeling of a PV asset is more accurate than indirect constructing of it in the MAD’s multiplicative mode. © 2015, Polska Akademia Nauk. All rights reserved.

Saluga P.W.,AGH University of Science and Technology | Sobczyk E.J.,IGSMiE PAN | Kicki J.,Instytut Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energia Polskiej Akademii Nauk
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi / Mineral Resources Management | Year: 2015

Indicating the resources and reserves of mineral deposits and disclosing such information to the public domain is an important issue with respect to the merits of doing business in the geological and mining field. Currently in the international sphere there is a system of reporting and classification of solid mineral resources based on the Australian JORC Code. This document, honored by the stock exchanges, presents minimum standards and guidelines necessary to reliably and credibly indicate resources of mineral deposits. The JORC uses two basic categories: resources and reserves, the first of which relates to inventory (balanced resources) of the mineral and the other - to recoverable reserves - that is possible to extract taking into account the currently available technical means and the current economic criteria. The classification system is hierarchical - reserves are a subset of resources. With the gathering of geological information, the latter are distinguished into inferred resources, indicated resources and measured resources, while within the first group there are reserves classified as probable reserves and proved reserves. Measured resources and proved reserves constitute the most recognized parts of the deposits. Following the success of the JORC many countries have developed their own national standards of reporting of resources and reserves. These codes are concentrated within CRIRSCO - Committee for Mineral Reserves International Reporting Standards [solid]. In Poland, the reporting of resources is governed by different acts of law. Polish classification is also hierarchical in nature - from the mass of geological resources it distinguishes so called balanced resources, including so called industrial and non-industrial reserves. Depending on the extent of geological knowledge, resources are presented in five categories of exploration: D, C2, C1, B and A. After deducting losses and taking into account the depletion of resources one can calculate the operational reserves. So far, despite the Russian experiences in this field, Poland has not developed a standard allowing to harmonize the Polish and international system. The content of this article presents a proposal for such a match. © 2015, Polska Akademia Nauk. All rights reserved.

Marek S.,IGSMIE PAN | Dziewinska L.,IGSMIE PAN | Tarkowski R.,IGSMIE PAN
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi / Mineral Resources Management | Year: 2011

The paper presents the location, geological structure and characteristics of the Wyszogród and Dzierżanowo anticlines in terms of potential underground storage of carbon dioxide. The Dzierżanowo and Wyszogród anticlines are two of the nine pre-selected structures for underground storage of carbon dioxide in Mesozoic deposits of the Płock Trough. They were detected by seismic profiles and deep boreholes. The Dzierżanowo Anticline is explored in more detail (five boreholes) than the Wyszogród Anticline (one borehole). Lower Cretaceous and Lower Jurassic aquifers have been proposed for CO 2 storage in these areas. They have similar parameters: average thickness (144 m and 161m; 140 m and 112 m, respectively), depth to the aquifer (200-300 m, lower for the Dzierżanowo Anticline), high porosity and permeability of reservoir rocks (several hundred mD and more), high capacity storage of CO 2 (much higher for the Wyszogród Anticline) and large thickness of the overburden seal. In both cases, the sealing series require further, detailed investigation of their sealing properties. No faults are observed within the reservoir rocks and overburden seal in the Wyszogród Anticline. They occur in the deeper parts ofthe Zechstein-Mesozoic succession up to the Lower Cretaceous in the Dzierżanowo Anticline. Due to its degree of exploration and the depth to the aquifer, and similar properties of the reservoir rocks and the sealing caprock, the Dzierżanowo structure seems more favourable for the underground storage of carbon dioxide. The Wyszogród and Dzierżanowo structures may be of interest to several large CO 2 emitters in the region: Vettenfall Heat Poland SA - (Siekierki and Żerań, Warsaw) and the Dalkia Łodź ZEC SA, located at a distance of up to 100 kilometres.

Kaminski J.,IGSMiE PAN | Saluga P.,AGH University of Science and Technology
Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi / Mineral Resources Management | Year: 2014

Given the historically shaped fuel mix of electricity generation in Poland, the main primary energy source used for power generation is still steam coal and lignite. This fuel mix directly impacts the cost structure of electricity production, the predominant component of which is the cost of fuel. The main purpose of this paper is to develop the concept of a mathematical model that could be applied to reduce the cost of fuel supplies to a power generation company. The starting point for further research is an analysis of fuel costs in the hard coal-fired part of the electricity generation sector. The quantities consumed for power generation are then considered together with fuel costs, based on available data from two energy companies whose power generating units utilize mainly steam coal. The development of the model assumes that the model's architecture will be open, which allows one to adjust not only the data input assumptions but also the model itself, depending on changing market conditions. For this exercise, domestic fuel and energy sector circumstances are taken into account, including steam coal quality requirements for each individual block, possible sources of steam coal supplies, as well as the detailed locations of Polish mining companies and potential sources of imported coal. Moreover, the model is assumed to be flexible so that temporal resolution of the model can be changed according to the requirements of management. Further efforts toward developing a mathematical model optimizing the processes of coal supplies will be dependent on the transposition of the conceptual model into a mathematical model, and subsequently this representation will be implemented in the modelling environment.

Kotowski T.,IGSMiE PAN | Smietanski L.,Panstwowy Instytut Geologiczny Panstwowy Instytut Badawczy
Biuletyn - Panstwowego Instytutu Geologicznego | Year: 2010

Preliminary results of hydrogeochemistry, isotope and model researches are presented in the paper. The main objects of the research were the deep Miocene and Pleistocene aquifers. Based on hydrogeochemical ratios r(Cl/Cl+HCO 3) and r(Na/Na+Ca) the variability of chemical composition of groundwater was investigated. Within the study area the determination of δ18O, δ2H, δ13C and 14C in groundwater was made. The results of the analysis indicate strong hydraulic connection between Pleistocene and Miocene aquifers. Two simple 2D groundwater flow models were made along the two hydrogeological cross-section lines A-A' and B-B'. Generally, the obtained results indicate dominating vertical recharge within the groundwater recharge area.

The paper is devoted to application of mathematical programming in long-term forecasting of the national energy sector. The aim of this study was to forecast the development of domestic electricity and heat sectors for the various systems of CO 2 allowances distribution. The European Trading Scheme for tradable CO 2 emissions (EU ETS) is a part of the so-called climate package aimed at significant reduction of CO 2 emissions in EU countries. It is an instrument which allows to achieve the ambitious emission reduction targets in an efficient way at the lowest cost. It covers mainly European power producers (though not only), hence its crucial importance for them. Poland, which primarily uses fossil fuels to energy production, is particularly sensitive to the strict rules of its operation. The methodology used to modeling the national energy market for the various systems of tradable allowances was presented. There have been briefly described the optimization model and its most important changes compared with its previous versions. The chapter shows how a total surplus of producers and consumers of energy - which is the criterion of optimization - is computed, and how a selection of energy technologies under the CO 2 allowances is made in the model. The results of the model runs, which is a synthetic picture of changes that may occur in the national energy sector by the end of 2025 are shown. The results relate to changes in the structure of energy production, electricity and heat production costs, emissions of pollutants, the cost of purchasing of CO 2 allowances and direct and indirect costs of scenarios considered. The work ends the main conclusions of the impact of the EU ETS on the domestic energy sector, analyzed from both the theoretical and empirical point of view.

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