Greeven S.,IDEA Consult |
Kraan O.,Leiden University |
Chappin E.J.L.,Technical University of Delft |
Kwakkel J.H.,Technical University of Delft
JASSS | Year: 2016
Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the many actors in society. Together, these two factors imply that the overarching dynamics of society’s response to climate change are unpredictable. In contrast to conventional processes of developing scenarios, in this study the emergence of climate change mitigation action by society has been represented in an agent-based model with which we developed two narratives of the emergence of climate change mitigation action by applying exploratory modelling and analysis. The agent-based model represents a two-level game involving governments and citizens changing their emission behaviour in the face of climate change through mitigation action. Insights gained from the exploration on uncertainties pertaining to the system have been used to construct two internally consistent and plausible narratives on the pathways of the emergence of mitigation action, which, as we argue, are a reasonable summary of the uncertainty space. The first narrative highlights how and when strong mitigation action emerges while the second narrative highlights how and when weak mitigation action emerges. In contrast to a conventional scenario development process, these two scenarios have been discovered bottom up rather than being defined top down. They succinctly capture the possible outcomes of the emergence of climate change mitigation by society across a large range of uncertain factors. The narratives therefore help in conveying the consequences of the various uncertainties influencing the emergence of climate change mitigation action by society. © 2016, University of Surrey. All rights reserved.
Thelwall M.,University of Wolverhampton |
Klitkou A.,Innovation Norway |
Verbeek A.,IDEA Consult |
Stuart D.,University of Wolverhampton |
Vincent C.,IDEA Consult
Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology | Year: 2010
Despite over 10 years of research there is no agreement on the most suitable roles for Webometric indicators in support of research policy and almost no field-based Webometrics. This article partly fills these gaps by analyzing the potential of policy-relevant Webometrics for individual scientific fields with the help of 4 case studies. Although Webometrics cannot provide robust indicators of knowledge flows or research impact, it can provide some evidence of networking and mutual awareness. The scope of Webometrics is also relatively wide, including not only research organizations and firms but also intermediary groups like professional associations, Web portals, and government agencies. Webometrics can, therefore, provide evidence about the research process to compliment peer review, bibliometric, and patent indicators: tracking the early, mainly prepublication development of new fields and research funding initiatives, assessing the role and impact of intermediary organizations and the need for new ones, and monitoring the extent of mutual awareness in particular research areas. © 2010 ASIS&T.
Duchene V.,IDEA Consult |
Lykogianni E.,IDEA Consult |
Verbeek A.,IDEA Consult
Science and Public Policy | Year: 2010
This paper focuses on the impact of differences in practice between European and US national statistical offices when classifying R&D expenditure by industry. We examine the impact of these differences on the role of the services sector in the EU-US R&D investment gap. According to official statistics, services industries appear to explain nearly the entire EU-US R&D intensity gap (US services have much higher R&D intensities). We argue that this is almost entirely the result of a statistical artefact: EU statistical offices redistribute R&D in the services sector to the corresponding manufacturing sectors to a much greater extent than in the US. Thus the EU R&D deficit against the US does not specifically emanate from the services sector. © Beech Tree Publishing 2010.