Sun P.,Hubei Meteorological Service Center |
Sun P.,Hubei Province Meteorological Energy Technology Development Center |
Chen Z.,Hubei Meteorological Service Center |
Chen Z.,Hubei Province Meteorological Energy Technology Development Center |
And 5 more authors.
Taiyangneng Xuebao/Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica
Model output statistics (MOS) is a relatively simple and reliable method for forecasting solar radiation. Based on improved conventional MOS method, a improved radiation forecast model was set up to improve the forecasting effect. Considering the weakening effect of atmosphere on radiation, the actual radiation was converted to articulation index to remove astronomical solar radiation impact. Besides, owing to greater impacts of different weather conditions on solar radiation, weather type was classified by using Fisher method before modeling. Meteorological elements of the same weather type, at the same times and in the same season were regarded as a same type. Considering weight changes of solar radiation elements resulted by seasonal and diurnal change characteristics of the solar radiation, the forecast model for different seasons and different times was built. Finally, considering the continuity of the system error, the error of initial model forecast value and the actual value could be regarded as a variable which would be used to build later hours forecast equation. The results show that the analog values of the model can reflect the actual changes in solar radiation and meet the modeling requirement. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of improved MOS model is about 20% less than that of conventional MOS model, significantly improving the forecasting results. August 2012 as the forecast period, the MAPE is 28.33% in forecast period, and the rRMSE is 16.20%. These results show a good prediction skill of the model. © 2015, Science Press. All right reserved. Source