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Groß-Gerau, Germany

De Aguinaga J.G.,Bauhaus University Weimar | Mikat H.,Hessenwasser GmbH and Co. KG | Schuth C.,TU Darmstadt | Liedl R.,TU Dresden
Groundwater | Year: 2014

A groundwater model characterized by a lack of field data about hydraulic model parameters and boundary conditions combined with many observation data sets for calibration purpose was investigated concerning model uncertainty. Seven different conceptual models with a stepwise increase from 0 to 30 adjustable parameters were calibrated using PEST. Residuals, sensitivities, the Akaike information criterion (AIC and AICc), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and Kashyap's information criterion (KIC) were calculated for a set of seven inverse calibrated models with increasing complexity. Finally, the likelihood of each model was computed. Comparing only residuals of the different conceptual models leads to an overparameterization and certainty loss in the conceptual model approach. The model employing only uncalibrated hydraulic parameters, estimated from sedimentological information, obtained the worst AIC, BIC, and KIC values. Using only sedimentological data to derive hydraulic parameters introduces a systematic error into the simulation results and cannot be recommended for generating a valuable model. For numerical investigations with high numbers of calibration data the BIC and KIC select as optimal a simpler model than the AIC. The model with 15 adjusted parameters was evaluated by AIC as the best option and obtained a likelihood of 98%. The AIC disregards the potential model structure error and the selection of the KIC is, therefore, more appropriate. Sensitivities to piezometric heads were highest for the model with only five adjustable parameters and sensitivity coefficients were directly influenced by the changes in extracted groundwater volumes. © 2013, National Ground Water Association.


Roth U.,Beratender Ingenieur | Mikat H.,Beratender Ingenieur | Wagner H.,Hessenwasser GmbH and Co. KG
GWF, Wasser - Abwasser | Year: 2011

The joint project "adaptation strategies for climate trends and extreme weather and steps towards a sustainable groundwater management" includes a prognosis of water consumption up to 2100. As a basis for the prognosis the development of water demand for different purposes was analysed. The special subject of this article is the effect of modern water saving household appliances. The consequences have been taken effect between 1980 and 2010 and to a large extent they are complete.


Mikat H.,Hessenwasser GmbH and Co. KG | Wagner H.,Hessenwasser GmbH and Co. KG | Roth U.,Beratender Ingenieur
GWF, Wasser - Abwasser | Year: 2010

The joint project "adaptation strategies for climate trends and extreme weather and steps towards a sustainable groundwater management" contains a prognosis of drinking water demand up to the year 2100. The prognosis of water demand is based on prognoses of the developments of population and percapita-consumption. The resulting twelve variants of the prognosis are reduced to three scenarios for relevant categories of developments. Two moderate scenarios show the status quo and a slightly decreasing demand. In the third scenario a considerable decrease is assumed. The prognosis shows the development in normal years - the situation in future periods of dry years also due to climate change is analysed separately.


Roth U.,Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences | Coppola F.,Hessenwasser GmbH and Co. KG | Wagner H.,Hessenwasser GmbH and Co. KG
GWF, Wasser - Abwasser | Year: 2016

For the first time since 2003 a relevant peak demand for water occured in southern Hesse in the summer of 2015. The relevant figures in extremely dry years and especially during distinctive heat waves in the summer months are crucial for planning and dimensioning the technical facilities and for the groundwater management. On July 3rd 2015 the water demand in the supply area of Hessenwasser reached the pre-calculated value for such an event almost exactly. The demand peak was covered without any relevant problems. This shows the strength of the supply concept as well as the resilience of the pipe compound system in southern Hesse. Having said that the event revealed indeed the limits of capacity and supply risks and therefore proves the need for stated measures, which are named in the studies about the situation of water supply in the region.


Roth U.,Auf der Hardt 33 | Mikat H.,Hessenwasser GmbH and Co. KG | Wagner H.,Hessenwasser GmbH and Co. KG
GWF, Wasser - Abwasser | Year: 2011

The joint project "adaptation strategies for climate trends and extreme weather and steps towards a sustainable groundwater management" consists a prognosis of water consumption up to 2100. As a basis for the prognosis the development of water demand for different purposes was analysed. The special subject of this article is the demand for toilet fl ushing under the influence of the change from 9-liter to 6-liter tanks, the introduction of stop-buttons, and other developments.

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