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Liu S.Z.,Henan Cancer Research and Control Office
Zhonghua yu fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese journal of preventive medicine] | Year: 2013

To describe the temporal trends in the mortality rate of gastric cancer during the period of 1988 and 2010, and to predict the gastric cancer mortality between 2016 - 2020. The data of gastric cancer mortality in Linzhou city between 1988 and 2010 was extracted from the cancer registry, including a total of 11 714 cases, covering 22 447 073 person-years. The mortality rate of gastric cancer of each 5-year period was calculated by sub-site and gender. Age-standardized rate (ASR) was calculated using the Chinese standard population in 1982. Intrinsic estimator (IE) model was used to fit the mortality trend by sub-site and gender, and to predict the mortality of gastric cancer in Linzhou city between 2016 and 2020. From 1988 to 2010, the gastric cancer mortality in Linzhou city was 52.18/100 000 (11 714/22 447 073) with the ASR at 49.23/100 000; the mortality in male was 67.02/100 000 (7678/11 455 512) with ASR at 68.68/100 000 while the mortality in female was 36.72/100 000 (4036/10 991 561) with ASR at 32.12/100 000. The mortality of cardia carcinoma was 27.87/100 000 (6257/22 447 073) with the ASR at 26.37/100 000; while the mortality of non-cardia carcinoma was 24.31/100 000 (5457/22 447 073) with the ASR at 22.86/100 000. The ASR of gastric cancer during 1988 - 1990 was 63.37/100 000 (1653 cases) and decreased by 28.34%, to 45.41/100 000 (2622 cases) during 2006 - 2010. The IE model showed that the birth cohort effect decreased greatly. The mortality risk of cardia carcinoma in population born after 1950s, decreased significantly; and the mortality risk of non-cardia carcinoma in population born in 20 century continually decreased. The death of gastric cancer among the population over 30 years old was predicted to be 3626 cases, increasing by 40.60% compared with the number between 2006 and 2010 (2579 cases). Among them, the mortality of cardia carcinoma increased by 51.89% (predicted number between 2016 and 2020 was 2456 cases, and 1617 cases between 2006 and 2010), and the mortality of non-cardia carcinoma increased by 21.62% (predicted number between 2016 and 2020 was 1170 cases, and 962 cases between 2006 and 2010). The mortality rate of gastric cancer in Linzhou city showed a decreasing trend during the period of 1988-2010, being mainly attributed to the cohort effect. However, the mortality will still increase in the future, between 2016 and 2020. Source


Liu S.-Z.,Henan Cancer Research and Control Office
Chinese Journal of Oncology | Year: 2012

Objective: To analyze the trends in mortality of esophageal cancer and explore the effects of age, period and cohort on esophageal cancer mortality rate in Linzhou city in 1986-2010, and predict the mortality of esophageal cancer in 2016-2020. Methods: All of the esophageal cancer-attributed deaths in 1986-2010 were drawn from the database in Center of Cancer and Vita Statistics in Henan Province. The numbers of the death cases and population were tabulated into 5-year age groups and 5-year period groups for each sex and linked each other. The age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated by direct standardization to the Chinese population structure in 1982. Intrinsic estimator model (IE model) was used to perform the age-period-cohort analysis and estimate the corresponding parameters. Age effect, period effect and cohort effect on esophageal cancer mortality rate was plotted separately. The mortality of esophageal cancer during 2016-2020 was predicted according to the parameters by that model. Results: A total of 15432 cases died from esophageal cancer in Linzhou city in1986-2010. The overall crude mortality rate was 63.89 per 100,000. Among men, the age-adjusted mortality rate was 109.66 per 100,000 during 1986-1990 and decreased to 60.59 per 100,000 during 2006-2010. For women, the age-adjusted mortality rate decreased from 74.72 per 100,000 to 39.05 per 100,000 at the same two calendar periods. The IE model showed that age effect was remarkable, the period effect was stable and the cohort effect decreased greatly. The predicted mortality of over 30-years old population during 2016-2020 is 1501 for men and 1083 for women. Compared with 2006-2010 period the mortality will be decreased by 6.71% and 11.08%, respectively. Conclusions: The mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city shows a decreasing trend during the period of 1986-2010. This trend is mainly attributed to the cohort effect. The predicted mortality in the future will decrease continually. Source


Liu S.-H.,Zhengzhou University | Liu S.-H.,Henan Cancer Research and Control Office | Wang B.,Henan Provincial Peoples Hospital | Zhang F.,Henan University | And 5 more authors.
Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention | Year: 2013

This study describes recent trends in incidence, survival and prevalence of subgroups of esophageal and gastric cancer in Linzhou city between 2003 and 2009. Data of esophageal and gastric cancer for the period of interest were extracted from the Linzhou Cancer Registry. Using information on tumor morphology or anatomical site, data were divided into six groups; esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, esophageal adenocarcinoma, other and unspecified types of esophageal cancer, and cardia, non-cardia, and unspecified anatomical site of stomach cancer. Incidence, survival and prevalence rates for each of the six cancer groups were calculated. The majority of esophageal cancers were squamous cell carcinomas (82%). Cardiac cancer was the major gastric cancer group (64%). The incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and gastric cardiac cancer increased between 2003 and 2009. Both esophageal and gastric cancer had a higher incidence in males compared with females. Overall survival was poor in all sub-groups with 1 year survival ranging from 45.9 to 65.6% and 5 year survival ranging from 14.7 to 30.5%. Prevalence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and gastric cardiac cancer was high (accounting for 80% overall). An increased focus on prevention and early diagnosis, especially in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and gastric cardiac cancer, is required. Source


Wang B.,Henan Provincial Peoples Hospital | Liu S.-Z.,Henan Cancer Research and Control Office | Zheng R.-S.,Chinese Academy of Sciences | Zhang F.,Henan University | And 2 more authors.
Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention | Year: 2014

The aim of this study was to examine the trend of ovary cancer incidence from 1999 to 2010 in China and predict the burden up to 2020. Crude incidence, age specific incidence and age-adjusted incidence rates were calculated. Joinpoint regression was performed to obtain estimated annual percentages and Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling was used to predict the incidence rate until the year 2020. In China, the crude rate of ovary cancer was 7.91/100,000 and the age-adjusted rate was 5.35/100,000 overall during period 1999-2010. The rates in urban regions were higher than in rural regions. A significant rising trend during 1999-2006 was followed by a drop during 2006-2010 in age-adjusted rates for urban females. In contrast, constant rise was observed in rural women. The decrease in ovary cancer of urban areas tended to be restricted to women aged 50 years and younger. In contrast, increases of ovary cancer in rural areas appeared in virtually all age groups. Although the age-adjusted incidence rate for ovary cancer was predicted to be reduced after year 2011, the crude rate was likely to be relative stable up to 2020. The burden of ovary cancer in China will continue to be relative stable due to the aging population. Source


Liu S.-Z.,Henan Cancer Research and Control Office | Zhang F.,Henan University | Quan P.-L.,Henan Cancer Research and Control Office | Lu J.-B.,Henan Cancer Research and Control Office | And 2 more authors.
Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention | Year: 2012

In recent decades, decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality have been observed across China. We here describe esophageal cancer mortality trends in Linzhou city, a high-incidence region of esophageal cancer in China, during 1988-2010 and make a esophageal cancer mortality projection in the period 2011-2020 using a Bayesian approach. Age standardized mortality rates were estimated by direct standardization to the World population structure in 1985. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on esophageal cancer mortality in Linzhou during 1988-2010 and to estimate future trends for the period 2011-2020. Age-adjusted rates for men and women decreased from 1988 to 2005 and changed little thereafter. Risk increased from 30 years of age until the very elderly. Period effects showed little variation in risk throughout 1988-2010. In contrast, a cohort effect showed risk decreased greatly in later cohorts. Forecasting, based on BAPC modeling, resulted in a increasing burden of mortality and a decreasing age standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city. The decrease of esophageal cancer mortality risk since the 1930 cohort could be attributable to the improvements of social-economic environment and lifestyle. The standardized mortality rates of esophageal cancer should decrease continually. The effect of aging on the population could explain the increase in esophageal mortality projected for 2020. Source

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