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Huang L.,Agricultural University of Hebei | Li C.,Agricultural University of Hebei | Chen J.,Agricultural University of Hebei | Xiao J.,Hebei Branch of China Huaneng Group | Huo L.,Agricultural University of Hebei
Nongye Gongcheng Xuebao/Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering | Year: 2010

As the Bayesian network model suitable for distribution system reliability evaluation is inadequate, the compositions of Bayesian network model are researched, and "unite" relation models and "cause-effect" relation models are set up. As the accurate inference of Bayesian network to large-scale distribution systems reliability indices is difficult to calculate, a time sequence simulation inference algorithm based on Bayesian network and time sequence simulation technique is put forward. This algorithm can generate state of elements and random time period, inference the system states in real-time, aggregate the amount of time, consumer power cut frequency and amount. Using the cumulative amount may not only calculate the reliability indices of the system, but also carry out diagnostic reasoning and causal reasoning, thus can accomplish collectivity evaluation of the system and identify weak taches of strangulation system. By comparing with the result of the simulation inference algorithm and accurate inference algorithm, the simulation inference algorithm is reasonable and effective. Source


Huang L.,Agricultural University of Hebei | Huang L.,Hebei Branch of China Huaneng Group | Zhang L.,Agricultural University of Hebei | Zhang L.,Hebei Branch of China Huaneng Group | And 2 more authors.
Nongye Gongcheng Xuebao/Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering | Year: 2011

In sequential simulation for distribution system reliability assessment, randomicity of sampling result in uncertainty of solution, thus the solving process must be expressed by probability knowledge, the convergence criterion for reliability indices is also different from which of common numerical iteration algorithm. Directed against solving uncertainty problems for sequential simulation of distribution system, choosing independent events was studied, independent generalized events were constituted. By analyzing confidence interval of general average value on the condition of a given confidence probability, a conclusion was reached that confidence interval length is related to absolute error of sample mean, and then a practical convergence criterion that expressed with absolute error was proposed, and the unequal relational expression about confidence interval length and a given calculation precision was presented under the given confidence probability. The method is reasonable and effective by RTBS verification. Source

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