Lay J.,GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies |
Lay J.,University of Gottingen |
Ondraczek J.,University of Hamburg |
Stoever J.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI |
Stoever J.,University of Hamburg
Energy Economics | Year: 2013
We study the determinants of households' choices of lighting fuels in Kenya including the option of using solar home systems (SHS). Our goal is to add new evidence on the factors that influence the introduction and adoption of decentralized and less carbon-intensive energy sources in developing countries, and, more generally, to the empirical debate on the energy ladder. We capitalize on a unique representative survey on energy use and sources from Kenya, one of the few relatively well-established SHS markets in the world. Our results reveal some very interesting patterns of the fuel transition in the context of lighting fuel choices. While we find clear evidence for a cross-sectional energy ladder, the income threshold for modern fuel use - including solar energy use - to move beyond traditional and transitional fuels is very high. Income and education turn out to be key determinants of SHS adoption, but we also find a very pronounced effect of SHS clustering, i.e. the prevalence of SHS in the proximity of a potential user increases the likelihood of adoption. In addition, we do not find a negative correlation between grid access and SHS use. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.
Ehrlich L.G.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI |
Klamka J.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI |
Klamka J.,University of Siegen |
Wolf A.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI
Energy Policy | Year: 2015
One fundamental challenge of the German energy transition for the electricity market is the growing imbalance between inflexible generation and generally inelastic load. Against this background, we investigate the future potential of decentralized Power-to-Heat (P2H) as an additional demand-side flexibility option for the German electricity system. Precisely, we analyze the case of hybrid systems, where conventional gas and oil condensing boiler systems are equipped with an electric heating rod. In contrast to previous approaches, we set our focus on the economic incentives at household level: only if the switch to a P2H-hybrid system can reduce individual heating expenses significantly, a considerable number of these systems will be installed. For this purpose, we implemented an integrated approach combining three distinct simulation modules. First, a stochastic simulation of the electricity spot market prices in 2020 was conducted. Second, average heat load profiles were generated based on a standard bottom-up analysis. Both results were then fed into an optimization model calculating the cost-minimizing paths of heat generation at household level during the year 2020. The simulated annual savings prove modest as long as household electricity prices are not heavily reduced through political influence. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
Grimm H.M.,University of Erfurt |
Jaenicke J.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI
Journal of Technology Transfer | Year: 2015
The paper investigates the intertemporal spillover effects from patenting to future publishing activities and vice versa among university employees with a country focus on the German Laender Bavaria, Saxony and Thuringia. Individual data from university patentees who successfully issued a patent at a public university before and after 2005 from the selected German Laender is used for measuring the Granger-causal effects between both activities. The interaction of personal and institutional characteristics of academic patentees is taken into account. By using Granger-causality tests in a dynamic panel model, we test the overall effect as well as group or Laender specific effects. Our findings show that there is a positive feedback relationship between patenting and publishing activities. An increase in patent applications results in higher numbers of future publications; reciprocally, an increase of publications contributes to a higher output of future patent applications. Additionally, we find interrelations of the research output with seniority, academic degree of the scientists and non-university work experience. The paper further presents findings about motives, skills and experience of so-called star scientists and other academic inventors. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media New York.
Rossen A.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI
Resources Policy | Year: 2015
The dynamics of metal prices are not only highly relevant for consumers due to their extensive uses in various industries, but also for a number of producing countries. For these countries, export earning are often the main source of revenues. Therefore, the precise examination of metal prices, their long and short-run cyclical behavior, and their co-movement is essential for economic planing and forecasting purposes. This study examines the dynamics of 20 monthly price series of a variety of mineral commodities during the past 100 years. Compared to early studies, who are either restricted to the history of the recent 50-60 years or are based on yearly data frequency, this data set is a huge advantage. Co-movement, short-run cycles and super cycles are analyzed by means of common statistical methods and compared to the results in the literature. Findings suggest that metal prices do not necessarily follow similar patterns. Although a common pattern is discernible within certain metal groups such as precious metals and non-ferrous metals, other metal groups like electrical metals and steel alloys can show very different price dynamics with respect to co-movement and short-run price cycles. However, the results in the literature concerning super cycles (1910-1938, 1938-1968, 1968-1996, 1996-ongoing) can usually be confirmed for the data set in this study. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
Leppin J.S.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI
Journal of Forecasting | Year: 2016
This paper examines overreaction of oil price forecasters. It takes into account impacts of uncertainty, measured by VSTOXX volatility; noisy signals, measured by oil price volatility; and oil price return on forecast changes. The panel smooth transition regression model is applied with different specifications of the transition function to account for nonlinear relations. Data on oil price expectations for different time horizons are taken from the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters. The results show that forecast changes are governed by overreaction. However, overreaction is markedly reduced when high levels of uncertainty prevail. On the other hand, noisy signals and positive oil price return tend to cause higher overreaction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Wolf A.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI |
Wenzel L.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI
Energy | Year: 2015
This study analyzes the economic consequences of power rationing at the level of German counties. Based on a common production function approach, it estimates the costs of power outages for firms and households in all counties and uses these estimates to derive hypothetical rationing plans for the scenario of a country-wide shortage of power supply. Rationing plans are introduced according to several criteria: a random-based approach, a criterion of total cost minimization, a criterion minimizing costs of the most affected region as well as a criterion minimizing the number of people affected. The implementation of each criterion is simulated for different times of the day. The spatial patterns of rationing prove to be heterogenous. Estimated cost structures differ to some extent as well. The results are discussed with regard to their enforceability in the context of the German energy transition. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
Bianchini K.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI
International Journal of Refugee Law | Year: 2010
This article analyzes the policy of the United Kingdom in the resettlement of mandate refugees from their country of refuge. In particular, it explains the roles of the institutions involved in the application process, namely UNHCR, the British Embassy in the country of refuge, the British Red Cross and the United Kingdom Border Agency. The article also covers the requirements that mandate refugees must meet to resettle to the United Kingdom. By considering the practical consequences of this policy for mandate refugees, the article criticizes the lack of basic procedural safeguards, such as the right to obtain an expedited decision, the right of appeal and the right to receive detailed reasons for refusals. In view of UNHCR's limited financial resources and staffing, the author takes an unfavorable view of the program's unnecessary reliance on this institution, which negatively impacts on the system's fairness. It is argued that in order to establish a program that aims to provide effective protection to refugees, the United Kingdom should review the current program and commit sufficient resources to its implementation. It is suggested that the main responsibility for accepting and considering the resettlement applications should be given to the British Embassy, that these applications should be given priority over other entry clearance applications, and that UNHCR should have a decision making role only in limited cases and with less discretion than under the current system. This article is one of the few, if not only, legal discussions on the United Kingdom's resettlement program. © The Author (2010). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.
Kowalewski J.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI
Papers in Regional Science | Year: 2011
This paper analyses the impact of industry specific regional specialization on employment growth in German planning regions between 1998 and 2007. The paper investigates Germany as a whole as well as Western and Eastern Germany separately. By using a shift-share regression approach the paper provides new findings about the existence of industry-specific localization advantages. The results show that inverse localization advantages play a major role in explaining regional disparities in Germany. This involves a process of deconcentration of economic activity. In addition, differences between Eastern and Western Germany can also be identified. © 2011 the author(s). Papers in Regional Science © 2011 RSAI.
Zierahn U.T.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI
Annals of Regional Science | Year: 2013
Regional labor markets are characterized by huge disparities between unemployment rates. Models of the New Economic Geography explain how disparities between regional goods markets endogenously arise but usually assume full employment. This paper discusses regional unemployment disparities by introducing a wage curve based on efficiency wages into the New Economic Geography. The model shows how disparities between regional goods and labor markets endogenously arise through the interplay of increasing returns to scale, transport costs, congestion costs, and migration. The level and stability of regional labor market disparities depends on the extend of labor market frictions. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Jahn M.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI
Weather and Climate Extremes | Year: 2015
Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational) economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in the field of extreme weather events are discussed. Possible regional impacts of extreme weather events are collected, focusing on European cities. The human contributions to those impacts are emphasized. Furthermore, methodological aspects of economic impact assessment are discussed along a temporal and a sectoral dimension. Finally, common economic impact models are compared, analyzing their strengths and weaknesses. © 2015 The Author.