Rossen A.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI
Resources Policy | Year: 2015
The dynamics of metal prices are not only highly relevant for consumers due to their extensive uses in various industries, but also for a number of producing countries. For these countries, export earning are often the main source of revenues. Therefore, the precise examination of metal prices, their long and short-run cyclical behavior, and their co-movement is essential for economic planing and forecasting purposes. This study examines the dynamics of 20 monthly price series of a variety of mineral commodities during the past 100 years. Compared to early studies, who are either restricted to the history of the recent 50-60 years or are based on yearly data frequency, this data set is a huge advantage. Co-movement, short-run cycles and super cycles are analyzed by means of common statistical methods and compared to the results in the literature. Findings suggest that metal prices do not necessarily follow similar patterns. Although a common pattern is discernible within certain metal groups such as precious metals and non-ferrous metals, other metal groups like electrical metals and steel alloys can show very different price dynamics with respect to co-movement and short-run price cycles. However, the results in the literature concerning super cycles (1910-1938, 1938-1968, 1968-1996, 1996-ongoing) can usually be confirmed for the data set in this study. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
Leppin J.S.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI
Journal of Forecasting | Year: 2016
This paper examines overreaction of oil price forecasters. It takes into account impacts of uncertainty, measured by VSTOXX volatility; noisy signals, measured by oil price volatility; and oil price return on forecast changes. The panel smooth transition regression model is applied with different specifications of the transition function to account for nonlinear relations. Data on oil price expectations for different time horizons are taken from the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters. The results show that forecast changes are governed by overreaction. However, overreaction is markedly reduced when high levels of uncertainty prevail. On the other hand, noisy signals and positive oil price return tend to cause higher overreaction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Kowalewski J.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI
Papers in Regional Science | Year: 2011
This paper analyses the impact of industry specific regional specialization on employment growth in German planning regions between 1998 and 2007. The paper investigates Germany as a whole as well as Western and Eastern Germany separately. By using a shift-share regression approach the paper provides new findings about the existence of industry-specific localization advantages. The results show that inverse localization advantages play a major role in explaining regional disparities in Germany. This involves a process of deconcentration of economic activity. In addition, differences between Eastern and Western Germany can also be identified. © 2011 the author(s). Papers in Regional Science © 2011 RSAI.
Grimm H.M.,University of Erfurt |
Jaenicke J.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI
Journal of Technology Transfer | Year: 2015
The paper investigates the intertemporal spillover effects from patenting to future publishing activities and vice versa among university employees with a country focus on the German Laender Bavaria, Saxony and Thuringia. Individual data from university patentees who successfully issued a patent at a public university before and after 2005 from the selected German Laender is used for measuring the Granger-causal effects between both activities. The interaction of personal and institutional characteristics of academic patentees is taken into account. By using Granger-causality tests in a dynamic panel model, we test the overall effect as well as group or Laender specific effects. Our findings show that there is a positive feedback relationship between patenting and publishing activities. An increase in patent applications results in higher numbers of future publications; reciprocally, an increase of publications contributes to a higher output of future patent applications. Additionally, we find interrelations of the research output with seniority, academic degree of the scientists and non-university work experience. The paper further presents findings about motives, skills and experience of so-called star scientists and other academic inventors. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media New York.
Bianchini K.,Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWI
International Journal of Refugee Law | Year: 2010
This article analyzes the policy of the United Kingdom in the resettlement of mandate refugees from their country of refuge. In particular, it explains the roles of the institutions involved in the application process, namely UNHCR, the British Embassy in the country of refuge, the British Red Cross and the United Kingdom Border Agency. The article also covers the requirements that mandate refugees must meet to resettle to the United Kingdom. By considering the practical consequences of this policy for mandate refugees, the article criticizes the lack of basic procedural safeguards, such as the right to obtain an expedited decision, the right of appeal and the right to receive detailed reasons for refusals. In view of UNHCR's limited financial resources and staffing, the author takes an unfavorable view of the program's unnecessary reliance on this institution, which negatively impacts on the system's fairness. It is argued that in order to establish a program that aims to provide effective protection to refugees, the United Kingdom should review the current program and commit sufficient resources to its implementation. It is suggested that the main responsibility for accepting and considering the resettlement applications should be given to the British Embassy, that these applications should be given priority over other entry clearance applications, and that UNHCR should have a decision making role only in limited cases and with less discretion than under the current system. This article is one of the few, if not only, legal discussions on the United Kingdom's resettlement program. © The Author (2010). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.