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Jenkintown, PA, United States

Chow A.,GRA Incorporated | Gulding J.,U.S. Federal Aviation Administration
2013 Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference | Year: 2013

Performance as measured by the standard Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) of delay, flight efficiency, on-time punctuality and predictability are directly influenced by the capacity available in the system. Capacity is increased with new technology and airport infrastructure. However, capacity also varies due to other short-term events such as weather or airport maintenance. These interdependencies complicate performance analysis by masking other effects such as changes in demand or longer term investment that improves the operation of the National Airspace System (NAS). An automated means of determining causal reasons for capacity variation is difficult and labor intensive as the causes may be site specific, due to weather events difficult to extract from traditional sources, or not recorded in a database that lends itself to automation. Simulation modeling and performance analysis that rely on ceiling and visibility will often under predict the effects of weather on capacity variation. Therefore, understanding other causal factors is a key step in determining inefficiencies that are actionable by Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSP) and aviation investment programs. This paper examines performance at airports determined to be most sensitive to capacity variation and determines which causal factors can be best automated by weather, demand and performance databases in use today. A set of weather rules are provided that show an improved correlation between METAR provided weather condition and Air Traffic Control (ATC) called rates than what is obtained using the more basic rules of ceiling and visibility. The paper concludes by estimating the improvements to NAS-wide simulation and performance modeling that could be realized by utilizing more detailed causal relationships of weather and capacity. Source

Ballard D.,GRA Incorporated | Gawdiak Y.,Mission Research
2013 Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference | Year: 2013

The demand for transportation is primarily an expression of a desire to interact directly with some other person or with some other aspect of the world. That is, any demand for transportation - which is costly in both resources and time - derives from an underlying demand for some direct experience or communication that the travel facilitates. Because of this, any technology that can also enable some fashion of interaction or communication for an individual can serve as a substitute for actual travel and the physical proximity that travel makes possible. Humans (and other species) have devised means of communication at a distance that permit information to be sent and received from others, although these means may be more coarse and less nuanced tools for communications than is direct interaction at a common location. In the past century, rapid developments in electronic and digital communications tools have allowed transmission of increasingly complex messages that verge closer and closer to actual physical presence. We term the (as yet unattained) culmination of these developments telepresence, noting that this term is already in use by some business firms for proprietary forms of high fidelity video-conferencing services. In this paper we examine these recent and imminent developments in digital and virtual interactions and communications. They are enabling levels of verisimilitude, complexity and capability that rival and substitute for actual personal interaction. We examine the trends and possibilities that characterize the future development of telepresence, and outline how telepresence can interact with modes of physical travel. We then consider some potential economic and societal impacts of telepresence by examining demographic, economic and environmental consequences of increased use of telecommuting and at home work that replaces some of the physical costs of the nation's workplaces. We discuss the integration of these telepresence capabilities into two broad economic and demographic models currently being used to examine socio-economic scenarios and assess their consequences for transportation investment requirements. We conclude with a consideration of next steps for better understanding the ways in which telepresence capabilities can contribute to national goals and federal investment requirements. Source

Gunnam A.K.,GRA Incorporated | Trani A.A.,Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University | Li T.,Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University | Graham T.C.,U.S. Federal Aviation Administration | Campos N.V.,U.S. Federal Aviation Administration
AIAA AVIATION 2014 -14th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference | Year: 2014

This paper gives a description of a computer simulation model called North Atlantic Simulation and Modelling developed by Virginia Tech's Air Transportation Systems Laboratory. The model is capable of investigating the effects of implementing different operational policies and strategies in oceanic airspace such as Reduced Lateral Separation Minima, North Atlantic Region Data link mandate, Reduced Longitudinal Separation Minima, cruise-climb profiles, variable Mach number profiles, step-climbs and other operational concepts. This paper describes the methodology, various components of the model and validation results. The effects on aircraft fuel consumption due of ICAO's North Atlantic data link mandate and reduced lateral separation minima, which are being implemented in the North Atlantic airspace are also discussed. Source

Gawdiak Y.,NASA | Stouffer V.,Logistics Management Institute LMI | Creedon J.,Old Dominion University | Holmes B.,NextGen | And 3 more authors.
AIAA AVIATION 2014 -14th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference | Year: 2014

This paper describes the analysis trajectory of the NextGen8 portfolio tradespace explorations from 2009 to 2013. We document how the discoveries in that process has driven the needs for new analytical requirements based on evolving social, environmental, and economic dynamics and how those challenges now require a wider solution scope to the traditional aviation tradespace. We document how the core principles of NASA's aeronautics goals are affected given these emergent requirements and why we believe new modeling approaches and simulations will help illuminate new possible policy and technology investment strategies. Source

Litvinas B.,GRA Incorporated | Dickerson N.,Booz Allen Hamilton
2013 Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference | Year: 2013

The Interagency Portfolio and Systems Analysis (IPSA) Division of the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) supported by the National Aeronautics & Space Agency Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate is responsible for supporting the partnerships necessary to implement the Next Generation Air Traffic System (NextGen). Consequently, the IPSA examines potential new technologies that will exist in the National Airspace System (NAS), and evaluates their economic and technological efficiency and practicality in the context of NextGen. As mandated by Congress, the eventual introduction of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) into the NAS presents a unique opportunity for the civilian aviation industry. Leveraging emerging technologies and new policies set by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), future civilian UAS operators will have the opportunity to create significant value through new business models and operating methods. It is important for policymakers to understand the potential scale and source of value creation so that they can create appropriate rules to accommodate UAS while still meeting the needs of other, existing aviation stakeholders. Using a simple discounted cash flow model, this paper attempts to estimate the level of value creation for three different UAS applications. Source

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