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Sun X.-H.,General Institute of Geological Survey | Chen C.-L.,General Institute of Geological Survey | Wang G.-S.,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences | Xiong X.-X.,General Institute of Geological Survey | And 3 more authors.
Acta Geoscientica Sinica | Year: 2015

Phosphorus is essential for crop growth. Most of the phosphorus, which is applied to agricultural land, comes from phosphate rock. About 66% of the phosphate rock ore mined was used to produce phosphate fertilizer. A reasonable exploitation and utilization of phosphate rock is a key to the national food security and human survival. Sustainable development of the phosphate rock industry is important for the fertilizer industry and agricultural production. This paper analyzes the per capita consumption of the phosphate fertilizer and per capita GDP inverted U shape rule in typical industrialized countries. Combined with the history of phosphate fertilizer consumption, the reasonable ratio of N:P:K and the economy development trend in China, the authors assumed three scenarios, i.e., the high growth scenario, the medium growth scenario and the low growth scenario and, on such a basis, predicted China's phosphate fertilizer demand. Then, in accordance with phosphorus consumption structure, the demand of phosphate rock was estimated. It is concluded that the demand for China's phosphate fertilizer may be at the peak between 2020 and 2025 according to the medium growth scenario. The consumption of China's phosphate fertilizer may reach 17~18 million tons (P2O5100%) and the total consumption of the phosphate rock may attain 20~21 million tons (P2O5100%). The results will play a positive role in the rational application of phosphate fertilizer and sustainable exploitation and utilization of the phosphate rock. ©, 2015, Science Press. All right reserved.

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