Fundacion para la Investigacion del Clima

Madrid, Spain

Fundacion para la Investigacion del Clima

Madrid, Spain
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Serra-Varela M.J.,University of Valladolid | Serra-Varela M.J.,Japan Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute | Alia R.,University of Valladolid | Alia R.,Japan Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute | And 8 more authors.
PLoS ONE | Year: 2017

Climate change is gravely affecting forest ecosystems, resulting in large distribution shifts as well as in increasing infection diseases and biological invasions. Accordingly, forest management requires an evaluation of exposure to climate change that should integrate both its abiotic and biotic components. Here we address the implications of climate change in an emerging disease by analysing both the host species (Pinus pinaster, Maritime pine) and the pathogen's (Fusarium circinatum, pitch canker) environmental suitability i.e. estimating the host's risk of habitat loss and the disease's future environmental range. We constrained our study area to the Spanish Iberian Peninsula, where accurate climate and pitch canker occurrence databases were available. While P. pinaster is widely distributed across the study area, the disease has only been detected in its north-central and north-western edges. We fitted species distribution models for the current distribution of the conifer and the disease. Then, these models were projected into nine Global Climate Models and two different climatic scenarios which totalled to 18 different future climate predictions representative of 2050. Based on the level of agreement among them, we created future suitability maps for the pine and for the disease independently, which were then used to assess exposure of current populations of P. pinasterto abiotic and biotic effects of climate change. Almost the entire distribution of P. pinasterin the Spanish Iberian Peninsula will be subjected to abiotic exposure likely to be driven by the predicted increase in drought events in the future. Furthermore, we detected a reduction in exposure to pitch canker that will be concentrated along the north-western edge of the study area. Setting up breeding programs is recommended in highly exposed and productive populations, while silvicultural methods and monitoring should be applied in those less productive, but still exposed, populations. © 2017 Serra-Varela et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Agency: European Commission | Branch: H2020 | Program: IA | Phase: DRS-09-2015 | Award Amount: 8.02M | Year: 2016

RESCCUE aims to deliver a framework enabling city resilience assessment, planning and management by integrating into software tools new knowledge related to the detailed water-centred modelling of strategic urban services performance into a comprehensive resilience platform. These tools will assess urban resilience from a multisectorial approach, for current and future climate change scenarios and including multiple hazards. The project will review and integrate in the general framework existing options to assess climate change impacts and urban systems vulnerabilities allowing to assess multisectorial dependencies under multiple climate change scenarios. An adaptation strategies portfolio, including climate services, ecosystem-based approaches and resource efficiency measures will be incorporated as key components of the deployment strategy. The possible approaches will be ranked by their cost-efficiency in terms of CAPEX and OPEX to evaluate their benefits potential. This will enable city managers and urban system operators deciding the optimal investments to cope with future situations. The validation platform is formed by 3 EU cities (Barcelona, Lisboa and Bristol) that will allow testing the innovative tools developed in the project and disseminating their results among other cities belonging to major international networks. In terms of market potential, RESCCUE will generate large potential benefits, in terms of avoided costs during and after emergencies, that will contribute to their large-scale deployment. The structure of the consortium will guarantee the market uptake of the results, as the complete value chain needed is already represented. The project is coordinated by Aquatec, a large consultancy firm part of a multinational company focused on securing and recovering resources, and includes partners from the research domain, operation of critical urban systems, city managers and international organisations devoted to urban resilience.

Rodriguez R.,Polytechnic University of Catalonia | Navarro X.,Polytechnic University of Catalonia | Casas M.C.,Polytechnic University of Catalonia | Ribalaygua J.,Fundacion para la Investigacion del Clima | And 3 more authors.
International Journal of Climatology | Year: 2014

The evaluation of the possible climate change influence on extreme precipitation is very interesting in the Mediterranean area due to the usual and characteristic high intensities of its rainfall pattern. This analysis is also very important in urban zones, especially those densely populated with complex sewer systems, generally vulnerable to torrential rainfall. In this work, a total of 114 simulated daily rainfall series, 84 for the period 2000-2099 and 30 for the control period 1951-1999, have been analysed. These series were obtained for six thermo-pluviometric stations located in the metropolitan area of Barcelona using the information provided by five general circulation models under four future climate scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and applying statistical downscaling methods. The potential changes in the intensity-duration-frequency relationships due to climate change have been investigated. For the last third of the 21st century, under A1B, A2 and B2 climate scenarios, an increase of at least 4% has been found on the expected daily rainfall with return period longer than 20years. Using a temporal downscaling based on scaling properties of rainfall, future hourly extreme rainfall has been estimated. For almost all the scenarios and periods considered, the increase on the expected hourly rainfall has resulted slightly higher than the corresponding daily rainfall. The greatest differences between the future hourly and daily rainfall estimated have been found in the second third of the century under scenarios A1B (8%) and A2 (9%). © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society.

Moncho R.,Fundacion Para la Investigacion Del Clima | Moncho R.,University of Valencia | Caselles V.,University of Valencia | Chust G.,Tecnalia
Climate Research | Year: 2012

In climatology, there is difficulty in describing the probability distribution of rainfall because there are many days without precipitation, which usually causes the most likely daily rainfall to be zero. None of the widely used models is able to describe the overall variation of daily precipitation. This article proposes an alternative model for the probability of precipitation. The model, based on 4 parameters, has been applied to daily rainfall throughout all months of the year and for 108 stations in Spain. This alternative model provides better results than the commonly used probability models (Generalized Extreme Value, Pareto and Generalized Pareto Distribution, Gamma, Gumbel, Weibull, Exponential and Log-normal). Our model had a mean absolute error of <10% for most of the stations analyzed. Thus, this alternative model could be used to correct the probability distributions of daily precipitation obtained from weather forecasting and climate models. © Inter-Research 2012.

Ribalaygua J.,Fundacion para la Investigacion del Clima | Torres L.,Fundacion para la Investigacion del Clima | Portoles J.,Fundacion para la Investigacion del Clima | Monjo R.,Fundacion para la Investigacion del Clima | And 2 more authors.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology | Year: 2013

This study describes a two-step analogue statistical downscaling method for daily temperature and precipitation. The first step is an analogue approach: the "n" days most similar to the day to be downscaled are selected. In the second step, a multiple regression analysis using the "n" most analogous days is performed for temperature, whereas for precipitation, the probability distribution of the "n" analogous days is used to define the amount of precipitation. Verification of this method has been carried out for the Spanish Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. Results show good performance for temperature (BIAS close to 0.1 °C and mean absolute errors around 1.9 °C) and an acceptable skill for precipitation (reasonably low BIAS except in autumn with a mean of -18 %, mean absolute error lower than for a reference simulation, i.e. persistence and a well-simulated probability distribution according to two non-parametric tests of similarity). © 2013 Springer-Verlag Wien.

Ribalaygua J.,Fundacion para la Investigacion del Clima | Pino R.M.,San Jorge University | Portoles J.,Fundacion para la Investigacion del Clima | Roldan E.,San Jorge University | And 3 more authors.
Science of the Total Environment | Year: 2013

By applying a two-step statistical downscaling technique to four climate models under different future emission scenarios, we produced future projections of the daily precipitation and the maximum and minimum temperatures over the Spanish region of Aragón. The reliability of the downscaling technique was assessed by a verification process involving the comparison of the downscaled reanalysis data with the observed data - the results were very good for the temperature and acceptable for the precipitation. To determine the ability of the climate models to simulate the real climate, their simulations of the past (the 20C3M output) were downscaled and then compared with the observed climate. The results are quite robust for temperature and less conclusive for the precipitation. The downscaled future projections exhibit a significant increase during the entire 21st century of the maximum and minimum temperatures for all the considered IPCC future emission scenarios (A2, A1B, B1), both for mid-century (increases relative to the 1971-2000 averages between 1.5°C and 2.5°C, depending on the scenario) and for the end of the century (for the maximum temperature of approximately 3.75°C, 3.3°C, and 2.1°C for A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios respectively, and for the minimum temperature of 3.1°C, 2.75°C, and 1.75°C). The precipitation does not follow such a clear tendency (and exhibits greater uncertainties), but all the scenarios suggest a moderate decrease in rainfall for the mid-century (2-4%) and for the end of the century (4.5-5.5%). Due to the clear spatial differences in climate characteristics, we divided the studied area into five sub-regions to analyse the different changes on these areas; we determined that the high mountains (Pyrenees, Mediterranean-Oceanic transitional climate) and the lands of the Ebro River Basin (Continental sub-Mediterranean climate) will probably be the most affected. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

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