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Thorleuchter D.,Fraunhofer Institute for Technological Trend Analysis | Van Den Poel D.,Ghent University
Expert Systems with Applications | Year: 2012

Multilevel security (MLS) is specifically created to protect information from unauthorized access. In MLS, documents are assigned to a security label by a trusted subject e.g. an authorized user and based on this assignment; the access to documents is allowed or denied. Using a large number of security labels lead to a complex administration in MLS based operating systems. This is because the manual assignment of documents to a large number of security labels by an authorized user is time-consuming and error-prone. Thus in practice, most MLS based operating systems use a small number of security labels. However, information that is normally processed in an organization consists of different sensitivities and belongs to different compartments. To depict this information in MLS, a large number of security labels is necessary. The aim of this paper is to show that the use of latent semantic indexing is successful in assigning textual information to security labels. This supports the authorized user by his manual assignment. It reduces complexity by the administration of a MLS based operating system and it enables the use of a large number of security labels. In future, the findings probably will lead to an increased usage of these MLS based operating systems in organizations. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


Thorleuchter D.,Fraunhofer Institute for Technological Trend Analysis | Van Den Poel D.,Ghent University
Expert Systems with Applications | Year: 2012

We analyze the impact of textual information from e-commerce companies' websites on their commercial success. The textual information is extracted from web content of e-commerce companies divided into the Top 100 worldwide most successful companies and into the Top 101 to 500 worldwide most successful companies. It is shown that latent semantic concepts extracted from the analysis of textual information can be adopted as success factors for a Top 100 e-commerce company classification. This contributes to the existing literature concerning e-commerce success factors. As evaluation, a regression model based on these concepts is built that is successful in predicting the commercial success of the Top 100 companies. These findings are valuable for e-commerce websites creation. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


Thorleuchter D.,Fraunhofer Institute for Technological Trend Analysis | Van Den Poel D.,Ghent University | Prinzie A.,Ghent University
Expert Systems with Applications | Year: 2012

We investigate the issue of predicting new customers as profitable based on information about existing customers in a business-to-business environment. In particular, we show how latent semantic concepts from textual information of existing customers' websites can be used to uncover characteristics of websites of companies that will turn into profitable customers. Hence, the use of predictive analytics will help to identify new potential acquisition targets. Additionally, we show that a regression model based on these concepts is successful in the profitability prediction of new customers. In a case study, the acquisition process of a mail-order company is supported by creating a prioritized list of new customers generated by this approach. It is shown that the density of profitable customers in this list outperforms the density of profitable customers in traditional generated address lists (e.g. from list brokers). From a managerial point of view, this approach supports the identification of new business customers and helps to estimate the future profitability of these customers in a company. Consequently, the customer acquisition process can be targeted more effectively and efficiently. This leads to a competitive advantage for B2B companies and improves the acquisition process that is time- and cost-consuming with traditionally low conversion rates. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


Thorleuchter D.,Fraunhofer Institute for Technological Trend Analysis | Van Den Poel D.,Ghent University
Expert Systems with Applications | Year: 2014

Cross impact analysis (CIA) consists of a set of related methodologies that predict the occurrence probability of a specific event and that also predict the conditional probability of a first event given a second event. The conditional probability can be interpreted as the impact of the second event on the first. Most of the CIA methodologies are qualitative that means the occurrence and conditional probabilities are calculated based on estimations of human experts. In recent years, an increased number of quantitative methodologies can be seen that use a large number of data from databases and the internet. Nearly 80% of all data available in the internet are textual information and thus, knowledge structure based approaches on textual information for calculating the conditional probabilities are proposed in literature. In contrast to related methodologies, this work proposes a new quantitative CIA methodology to predict the conditional probability based on the semantic structure of given textual information. Latent semantic indexing is used to identify the hidden semantic patterns standing behind an event and to calculate the impact of the patterns on other semantic textual patterns representing a different event. This enables to calculate the conditional probabilities semantically. A case study shows that this semantic approach can be used to predict the conditional probability of a technology on a different technology. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


Thorleuchter D.,Fraunhofer Institute for Technological Trend Analysis | Van Den Poel D.,Ghent University
Expert Systems with Applications | Year: 2013

Many national and international governments establish organizations for applied science research funding. For this, several organizations have defined procedures for identifying relevant projects that based on prioritized technologies. Even for applied science research projects, which combine several technologies it is difficult to identify all corresponding technologies of all research-funding organizations. In this paper, we present an approach to support researchers and to support research-funding planners by classifying applied science research projects according to corresponding technologies of research-funding organizations. In contrast to related work, this problem is solved by considering results from literature concerning the application based technological relationships and by creating a new approach that is based on latent semantic indexing (LSI) as semantic text classification algorithm. Technologies that occur together in the process of creating an application are grouped in classes, semantic textual patterns are identified as representative for each class, and projects are assigned to one of these classes. This enables the assignment of each project to all technologies semantically grouped by use of LSI. This approach is evaluated using the example of defense and security based technological research. This is because the growing importance of this application field leads to an increasing number of research projects and to the appearance of many new technologies. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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