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Feng X.,Shanghai JiaoTong University | Hu H.,East China University of Science and Technology | Pritsker M.,Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
International Journal of Modern Physics C | Year: 2013

To control counterparty risk, financial regulations such as the Dodd Frank Act are increasingly requiring standardized derivatives trades to be cleared by central counterparties (CCPs). It is anticipated that in the near-term future, CCPs across the world will be linked through interoperability agreements that facilitate risk-sharing but also serve as a conduit for transmitting shocks. This paper theoretically studies a network with CCPs that are linked through interoperability arrangements, and studies the properties of the network that contribute to cascading failures. The magnitude of the cascading is theoretically related to the strength of network linkages, the size of the network, the logistic mapping coefficient, a stochastic effect and CCP's defense lines. Simulations indicate that larger network effects increase systemic risk from cascading failures. The size of the network N raises the threshold value of shock sizes that are required to generate cascades. Hence, the larger the network, the more robust it will be. © 2014 World Scientific Publishing Company.

Arcaya M.,Harvard University | Glymour M.M.,University of California at San Francisco | Chakrabarti P.,Federal Reserve Bank of Boston | Christakis N.A.,Yale University | And 2 more authors.
Circulation | Year: 2014

BACKGROUND - : No studies have examined the effects of local foreclosure activity on neighbors' blood pressure, despite the fact that spillover effects of nearby foreclosures include many known risk factors for increased blood pressure. We assessed the extent to which living near foreclosed properties is associated with subsequent systolic blood pressure (SBP) measurements. METHODS AND RESULTS - : We used 6590 geocoded observations collected from 1740 participants in the Framingham Offspring Cohort across 5 waves (1987-2008) of the Framingham Heart Study to create a longitudinal record of exposure to nearby foreclosure activity. We distinguished between real estate-owned foreclosures, which typically sit vacant, and foreclosures purchased by third-party buyers, which are generally put into productive use. Counts of lender-owned foreclosed properties within 100 m of participants' homes were used to predict measured SBP and odds of being hypertensive. We assessed whether self-reported alcoholic drinks per week and measured body mass index helped to explain the relationship between foreclosure activity and SBP. Each additional real estate-owned foreclosure located within 100 m of a participant's home was associated with an increase in SBP of 1.71 mm Hg (P=0.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.18-3.24) after adjustment for individual- and area-level confounders but not with odds of hypertension. The presence of foreclosures purchased by third-party buyers was not associated with SBP or with hypertension. Body mass index and alcohol consumption attenuated the effect of living near real estate-owned foreclosures on SBP in fully adjusted models. CONCLUSIONS - : Real estate-owned foreclosed properties may put nearby neighbors at risk for increased SBP, with higher alcohol consumption and body mass index partially mediating this relationship. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Ryan R.W.,Federal Reserve Bank of Boston | Holland D.S.,Gulf of Maine Research Institute | Holland D.S.,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | Herrera G.E.,Bowdoin College
Marine Resource Economics | Year: 2010

Despite a growing call for ecosystem-based fishery management, most fisheries are managed independently with little attention paid to linkages such as competition for resources and predator-prey relationships. As the predator-prey modeling literature has shown, such linkages can substantially alter the outcomes of management strategies from those predicted by models naïve to these linkages. In this article, we explore the implications of a linkage between fisheries due to an artificial predator-prey relationship; the use of one harvested species as an input to the harvest technology in another primary fisheiy whose biological productivity is also positively affected by bait consumption. These anthropogenic, technological, and biological linkages between the fisheries alter both the open-access and rent-maximizing equilibria of the primary fishery. Furthermore, shifts in economic, technological, or biological parameters of either fishery can have significantly different impacts on the bioeconomic equilibria than those predicted by a traditional single-species model. Copyright © 2010 MRE Foundation, Inc.

Burke M.A.,Federal Reserve Bank of Boston | Heiland F.W.,York College | Heiland F.W.,Florida State University | Nadler C.M.,Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Obesity | Year: 2010

In this article, we describe differences in the self-perception of weight status in the United States between the two most recent National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) periods (1988-1994 and 1999-2004), and test the hypothesis that secular increases in adult mean BMI, adult obesity, and childhood obesity contributed to changes over time in weight perceptions. We find that the probability of self-classifying as overweight is significantly lower on average in the more recent survey, for both women and men, controlling for objective weight status and other factors. Among women, the decline in the tendency to self-classify as overweight is concentrated in the 17-35 age range, and is more pronounced among women with normal BMI than those with overweight BMI. Among men, the shift away from feeling overweight is roughly equal across age groups. Overweight men exhibit a sharper decline in feeling overweight than normal weight men. Despite the declines in feeling overweight between surveys, weight misperception did not increase significantly for men and decreased by a sizable margin among women. We interpret the findings as evidence of a generational shift in social norms related to body weight. As a result, people may be less likely to desire weight loss than previously, limiting the effectiveness of public health campaigns aimed at weight reduction. On the other hand, there may be health benefits associated with improved body image. © 2010 North American Association for the Study of Obesity (NAASO).

Feng X.,Shanghai University | Feng X.,Shanghai JiaoTong University | Feng X.,Boston University | Pritsker M.,Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
International Journal of Modern Physics C | Year: 2014

While a more integrated central counterparty (CCP) network via interoperability will provide users more cost efficient clearing and settlement services, it also increases the default transmission through the system. Using epidemic spreading model, it is found that a vertically interoperated CCP network is more robust compared with a horizontally interoperated one when certain condition is satisfied. Variation of the different transmission rates from both internal and external sources leads to different equilibrium. The safe range which is free from the crisis explosion state is identified and can be reached with certain policy coordination among nations. © 2014 World Scientific Publishing Company.

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